Forex News Timeline
23:55 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi trades near 0.5700 as short-term bullish bias builds momentum
The NZD/USD pair extended its upside momentum during Thursday’s session, climbing toward the 0.5700 area after posting notable intraday gains. The pair remains comfortably positioned within its daily range of 0.56282 to 0.57656, reflecting growing bullish sentiment in the short term.
NZD/USD trades near the 0.5700 area after posting solid gains ahead of the Asian sessionShorter-term moving averages point to a bullish bias despite mixed indicator signalsSupport sits in the mid-0.5700 while resistance emerges closer to the 0.5800 zone
The NZD/USD pair extended its upside momentum during Thursday’s session, climbing toward the 0.5700 area after posting notable intraday gains. The pair remains comfortably positioned within its daily range of 0.56282 to 0.57656, reflecting growing bullish sentiment in the short term.From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently prints at 53.82, indicating neutral momentum but improving to positive area, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to suggest a sell signal. Despite this, the shorter-term moving averages are aligning in support of the ongoing bullish movement. The 10-day EMA at 0.56685 and the 10-day SMA at 0.56688 both point upward, followed closely by the 20-day SMA at 0.57156 and the 100-day SMA at 0.57072—further validating the short-term bullish bias.Meanwhile, the 200-day SMA at 0.58946 may act as a longer-term resistance threshold. The Stochastic RSI Fast at 41.67 and the Awesome Oscillator at -0.00854 remain neutral, adding no immediate conviction to the directional bias.
Daily chart
The NZD/USD pair extended its upside momentum during Thursday’s session, climbing toward the 0.5700 area after posting notable intraday gains. The pair remains comfortably positioned within its daily range of 0.56282 to 0.57656, reflecting growing bullish sentiment in the short term.From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently prints at 53.82, indicating neutral momentum but improving to positive area, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to suggest a sell signal. Despite this, the shorter-term moving averages are aligning in support of the ongoing bullish movement. The 10-day EMA at 0.56685 and the 10-day SMA at 0.56688 both point upward, followed closely by the 20-day SMA at 0.57156 and the 100-day SMA at 0.57072—further validating the short-term bullish bias.Meanwhile, the 200-day SMA at 0.58946 may act as a longer-term resistance threshold. The Stochastic RSI Fast at 41.67 and the Awesome Oscillator at -0.00854 remain neutral, adding no immediate conviction to the directional bias.
Daily chart
23:30 Australian Dollar climbs above 0.6200 amid broad USD weakness and trade jitters
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its advance on Thursday, climbing toward the 0.6240 zone during the American session. The pair built on recent strength as the US Dollar Index (DXY) slid further toward multi-month lows near the 101 area.
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its advance on Thursday, climbing toward the 0.6240 zone during the American session. The pair built on recent strength as the US Dollar Index (DXY) slid further toward multi-month lows near the 101 area. This move came after markets digested the White House’s confirmation of a steep 145% tariff on Chinese goods, combined with a cautious Federal Reserve (Fed) tone. Despite the Greenback’s decline, the technical backdrop for AUD/USD remains tilted to the downside, with several key indicators continuing to flash bearish signals, even as the pair attempts to recover lost ground.
Daily digest market movers: Aussie up as US Dollar slips on Fed flags inflation risks, trade warThe US Dollar (USD) extended its decline on Thursday, pressured by escalating trade tensions and softer inflation data. The DXY fell near the 101.00 handle as investors digested the latest tariff developments and cautious Fed rhetoric.President Trump’s 145% tariff on Chinese imports remains in effect, despite a temporary pause on some measures. Fed officials, including Goolsbee, Logan, and Schmid, warned that the tariff-induced price pressures could hurt consumer sentiment, hinder employment growth, and complicate monetary policy decisions.US initial jobless claims ticked slightly higher, reinforcing labor market cooling concerns. Meanwhile, the March CPI report revealed a sharp deceleration in both core and headline inflation, easing to multi-year lows.Equity markets gave back part of Wednesday’s gains, with the Dow retreating below 40,000 as sentiment turned more cautious. Meanwhile, Gold surged to fresh all-time highs and WTI crude reversed mid-week gains amid demand concerns.The Australian Dollar gained ground against the weakening US Dollar, even as the macro outlook for Australia remains fragile due to its exposure to Chinese demand, which is being dampened by tit-for-tat tariffs.
Technical analysis
Despite Thursday’s upward momentum, AUD/USD continues to face a technically bearish structure, with key resistance levels limiting further upside. The pair moved higher to trade in the upper half of the recent range, but its positioning remains vulnerable.The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to print red bars, signaling lingering downside pressure. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 48, suggesting neutral momentum with a slight bearish tilt. Both the Stochastic %K (at 37.57) and Commodity Channel Index (at -51.65) also display neutral tones, offering no clear directional bias.The bearish sentiment is reinforced by a confluence of moving averages leaning against buyers. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages all slope downward, sitting above current price action and capping gains. The 30-day EMA and SMA—hovering around 0.6230–0.6250—also suggest further resistance ahead.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its advance on Thursday, climbing toward the 0.6240 zone during the American session. The pair built on recent strength as the US Dollar Index (DXY) slid further toward multi-month lows near the 101 area. This move came after markets digested the White House’s confirmation of a steep 145% tariff on Chinese goods, combined with a cautious Federal Reserve (Fed) tone. Despite the Greenback’s decline, the technical backdrop for AUD/USD remains tilted to the downside, with several key indicators continuing to flash bearish signals, even as the pair attempts to recover lost ground.
Daily digest market movers: Aussie up as US Dollar slips on Fed flags inflation risks, trade warThe US Dollar (USD) extended its decline on Thursday, pressured by escalating trade tensions and softer inflation data. The DXY fell near the 101.00 handle as investors digested the latest tariff developments and cautious Fed rhetoric.President Trump’s 145% tariff on Chinese imports remains in effect, despite a temporary pause on some measures. Fed officials, including Goolsbee, Logan, and Schmid, warned that the tariff-induced price pressures could hurt consumer sentiment, hinder employment growth, and complicate monetary policy decisions.US initial jobless claims ticked slightly higher, reinforcing labor market cooling concerns. Meanwhile, the March CPI report revealed a sharp deceleration in both core and headline inflation, easing to multi-year lows.Equity markets gave back part of Wednesday’s gains, with the Dow retreating below 40,000 as sentiment turned more cautious. Meanwhile, Gold surged to fresh all-time highs and WTI crude reversed mid-week gains amid demand concerns.The Australian Dollar gained ground against the weakening US Dollar, even as the macro outlook for Australia remains fragile due to its exposure to Chinese demand, which is being dampened by tit-for-tat tariffs.
Technical analysis
Despite Thursday’s upward momentum, AUD/USD continues to face a technically bearish structure, with key resistance levels limiting further upside. The pair moved higher to trade in the upper half of the recent range, but its positioning remains vulnerable.The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to print red bars, signaling lingering downside pressure. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 48, suggesting neutral momentum with a slight bearish tilt. Both the Stochastic %K (at 37.57) and Commodity Channel Index (at -51.65) also display neutral tones, offering no clear directional bias.The bearish sentiment is reinforced by a confluence of moving averages leaning against buyers. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages all slope downward, sitting above current price action and capping gains. The 30-day EMA and SMA—hovering around 0.6230–0.6250—also suggest further resistance ahead.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
22:13 Forex Today: Focus remains on US inflation, this time with Producer Prices
The Greenback plummeted to fresh lows amid persistent concerns over the US-China trade war and its potential impact on both the global and US economies.
The Greenback plummeted to fresh lows amid persistent concerns over the US-China trade war and its potential impact on both the global and US economies.Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 11: The US Dollar Index (DXY) tumbled to new multi-month lows in the sub-101.00 region amid shrinking US yields across the curve. Producer Prices will be released, seconded by the advanced Michigan Consumer Sentiment and speeches by the Fed’s Musalem and Williams.EUR/USD advanced to new highs after breaking above the key 1.1200 round level. The final Inflation Rate in Germany and the Current Account prints are next on tap.GBP/USD added to the weekly recovery and came closer to the 1.3000 milestone. The GDP figures, Goods Trade Balance results, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, and the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker are all due across the Channel.USD/JPY retreated markedly and revisited the area of recent troughs around the 144.00 neighbourhood. Capacity Utilization and the final Industrial Production readings will be published on April 14 in Japan.AUD/USD climbed to four-day highs after reclaiming the 0.6200 hurdle on the back of the US Dollar’s sell-off. Next of note in Oz will be the release of the RBA Minutes on April 15.Prices of WTI partially left behind Wednesday’s strong rebound and resumed its downtrend, slipping back to levels below the $59.00 mark per barrel on intense tariff concerns.Prices of Gold surged to an all-time high near the $3,180 mark per troy ounce on the back of the steep drop in the greenback, trade war jitters and declining US yields. Silver prices rose further and reached four-day tops near $31.30 per ounce, surpassing at the same time their key 200-day SMA.
21:52 Fed's Goolsbee: The bar for Fed policy change is now pretty high
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee hit newswires for a second time on Thursday, adding extra caution that ongoing trade tensions will continue to make it harder, not easier, for the Fed to adjust policy rates, regardless of how much the markets and the Trump administrati
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee hit newswires for a second time on Thursday, adding extra caution that ongoing trade tensions will continue to make it harder, not easier, for the Fed to adjust policy rates, regardless of how much the markets and the Trump administration may want rates to go down.Key highlightsThe current tariffs will drive up inflation in the near term, and hurt growth.
Now is the time for the US central bank to wait and see on interest rates.
The bar for Fed policy change now is pretty high.
Long-term treasuries still appear to be the safest asset in the world.
I prefer market inflation expectations data over surveys.
The current data suggest the job market is still solid.
I won’t speculate on how the Fed would respond to a market stress event.
Broad financial conditions indices can be hard to read.
The bond market selloff showed that the US was not the only nation getting hit.
The solid 10-year treasury auction reduced my worry about the market.
Current tariffs are higher than most scenarios, even with Trump's pause.
The current tariff system is a big scenario.
Now is the time for the US central bank to wait and see on interest rates.
The bar for Fed policy change now is pretty high.
Long-term treasuries still appear to be the safest asset in the world.
I prefer market inflation expectations data over surveys.
The current data suggest the job market is still solid.
I won’t speculate on how the Fed would respond to a market stress event.
Broad financial conditions indices can be hard to read.
The bond market selloff showed that the US was not the only nation getting hit.
The solid 10-year treasury auction reduced my worry about the market.
Current tariffs are higher than most scenarios, even with Trump's pause.
The current tariff system is a big scenario.
21:06 US Dollar falls as tariffs and Fed concerns fuel bearish mood
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near the 101 area in Thursday’s session, falling further after failing to hold recovery momentum from earlier in the week. The move comes as new tariff measures confirmed by the White House send the effective rate on Chinese imports to a staggering 145%.
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The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near the 101 area in Thursday’s session, falling further after failing to hold recovery momentum from earlier in the week. The move comes as new tariff measures confirmed by the White House send the effective rate on Chinese imports to a staggering 145%. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including Presidents Jeff Schmid and Lorie Logan, warned that these trade actions risk worsening inflation and labor market dynamics. On the technical side, the MACD continues to signal selling pressure, while the Relative Strength Index hovers just above oversold territory. With downside momentum intensifying, the DXY remains vulnerable.Daily digest market movers: US Dollar slips as Fed flags inflation risksThe White House confirmed the escalation of tariffs on Chinese goods, lifting the effective rate to 145% while maintaining a 10% baseline for others.Fed officials issued strong warnings, highlighting how the surprise tariff surge could drive consumer prices higher and complicate monetary policy decisions.Dallas Fed’s Logan said unexpected trade measures could trigger job losses and stoke inflation, forcing the central bank into a defensive posture.The latest jobless claims rose slightly to 223K, while continuing claims dropped to 1.85M, offering mixed signals on the labor front.Despite recent volatility, Fed policymakers avoided direct mention of March CPI in their latest comments, though markets remain sensitive to inflation prints.
Technical analysis
The US Dollar Index paints a bearish picture as it continues to slide near the lower edge of its daily range around the 101 area. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirms downward momentum with a sell signal, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 29, indicating weak price strength but not yet in deep oversold territory. While the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, Momentum (10) indicates further downside pressure. The bearish tone is reinforced by several downward-sloping moving averages: the 20-day SMA at 103.52, 100-day SMA at 106.48, and 200-day SMA at 104.79. An additional downside could materialize if the index breaks below current levels, while resistance is seen at 102.29, 102.72, and 102.89.
US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near the 101 area in Thursday’s session, falling further after failing to hold recovery momentum from earlier in the week. The move comes as new tariff measures confirmed by the White House send the effective rate on Chinese imports to a staggering 145%. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including Presidents Jeff Schmid and Lorie Logan, warned that these trade actions risk worsening inflation and labor market dynamics. On the technical side, the MACD continues to signal selling pressure, while the Relative Strength Index hovers just above oversold territory. With downside momentum intensifying, the DXY remains vulnerable.Daily digest market movers: US Dollar slips as Fed flags inflation risksThe White House confirmed the escalation of tariffs on Chinese goods, lifting the effective rate to 145% while maintaining a 10% baseline for others.Fed officials issued strong warnings, highlighting how the surprise tariff surge could drive consumer prices higher and complicate monetary policy decisions.Dallas Fed’s Logan said unexpected trade measures could trigger job losses and stoke inflation, forcing the central bank into a defensive posture.The latest jobless claims rose slightly to 223K, while continuing claims dropped to 1.85M, offering mixed signals on the labor front.Despite recent volatility, Fed policymakers avoided direct mention of March CPI in their latest comments, though markets remain sensitive to inflation prints.
Technical analysis
The US Dollar Index paints a bearish picture as it continues to slide near the lower edge of its daily range around the 101 area. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirms downward momentum with a sell signal, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 29, indicating weak price strength but not yet in deep oversold territory. While the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, Momentum (10) indicates further downside pressure. The bearish tone is reinforced by several downward-sloping moving averages: the 20-day SMA at 103.52, 100-day SMA at 106.48, and 200-day SMA at 104.79. An additional downside could materialize if the index breaks below current levels, while resistance is seen at 102.29, 102.72, and 102.89.
US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
21:05 Dow Jones Industrial Average pares gains as markets brace for ongoing trade tensions
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) eased lower on Thursday, backsliding below the 40,000 handle as investors rethink this week’s record-setting surge after the Trump administration announced yet another last-minute pivot away from its own confusing tariffs.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Dow Jones backslid on Thursday, falling back below 40,000.Equities are souring as investors hunker down for messy, prolonged trade frictions.US CPI inflation ticked lower in a welcome reprieve, but tariff effects still loom ahead.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) eased lower on Thursday, backsliding below the 40,000 handle as investors rethink this week’s record-setting surge after the Trump administration announced yet another last-minute pivot away from its own confusing tariffs. Despite delaying the majority of President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs, an across-the-board 10% import levy is still in effect during the 90–day ‘grace period’, and a 145% tariff on all Chinese imports is still in effect.On top of the eye-watering 145% tariff on Chinese goods, China has slapped its own 84% retaliatory tariff on all imports from the US, which will overwhelmingly impact US agriculture and energy, two darlings of the Trump administration. Additionally, the 10% interim tariff also applies to all goods from Canada and Mexico and promises to cause pricing problems for US consumers, who remain notably sensitive to upside price pressures.Read more stock news: US stocks slide after historic Wednesday rally, NASDAQ down 5.7% on ThursdayUS Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation came in well below expectations in March. Core CPI eased to 2.8% YoY, reaching a four-year low after stubbornly holding above 3.0% for nearly eight months. Headline CPI inflation also eased to 2.4% YoY, and investment markets will be devastated if tariffs undo years’ worth of work by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to bring inflation to heel.This week will wrap up with University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index survey results on Friday. The UoM Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to contract yet again in April as consumers continue to buckle under the weight of the Trump administration’s tariff and trade “strategy”, and is expected to sink to a nearly three-year low of 54.5. Consumer Inflation Expectations are also on the cards for Friday. UoM 1-year and 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations last clocked in at 5% and 4.1%, respectively.Dow Jones price forecastDespite a wild mid-week recovery, the Dow Jones still found some room on the low side on Thursday, paring away some of the index’s near-term gains and keeping the 40,000 major price handle in play. The Dow Jones is trading in a wide, choppy range on the low side of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 41,900.Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
21:00 United States Monthly Budget Statement above forecasts ($-236.6B) in March: Actual ($-161B)
United States Monthly Budget Statement above forecasts ($-236.6B) in March: Actual ($-161B)
20:03 United States 30-Year Bond Auction rose from previous 4.623% to 4.813%
United States 30-Year Bond Auction rose from previous 4.623% to 4.813%
19:59 XAU/USD Forecast: Gold reaches records amid escalating US-China trade war
The bright metal soared on Thursday, hitting a fresh all-time high of $3,175.00 a troy ounce during American trading hours. The US Dollar (USD) plummeted on headlines indicating the trade war unleashed by US President Donald Trump is far from over.
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Technical OutlookFrom a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, notes: “The XAU/USD pair daily chart shows that additional gains are likely, given the strong upward momentum. Technical indicators head north almost vertically, while still far from overbought levels. At the same time, the bright metal extended its advance beyond a now bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $3,052. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs also aim north, but far below the shorter one.” Bednarik foresees XAU/USD reaching the $3,200 region in the upcoming sessions.
US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
Technical OutlookFrom a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, notes: “The XAU/USD pair daily chart shows that additional gains are likely, given the strong upward momentum. Technical indicators head north almost vertically, while still far from overbought levels. At the same time, the bright metal extended its advance beyond a now bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $3,052. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs also aim north, but far below the shorter one.” Bednarik foresees XAU/USD reaching the $3,200 region in the upcoming sessions.
US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
19:51 Fed's Goolsbee: A tariff is like a stagflationary shock, challenging for Fed
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President noted on Thursday that the most challenging aspect of managing the US economy from the Fed's side of the data docket is knock-on effects from the US's lopsided trade and tariff policy approach, which poses a direct threat to consumer confidence and out
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President noted on Thursday that the most challenging aspect of managing the US economy from the Fed's side of the data docket is knock-on effects from the US's lopsided trade and tariff policy approach, which poses a direct threat to consumer confidence and outlook stability.Key highlightsThe Fed timetable is not the market timetable.
Our goal is to find through line, not jump to conclusions.
The Fed's job is to be cautious in volatile times.
The hard data on economy looks pretty good.
Unemployment rate is around full employment.
Economy has been moving toward the golden path.
Importance of soft data has gotten more important due to less lag.
There's an argument short-run tariffs would not alter economy's path.
If confidence is lost it could cause economic problems.
There is a lot of anxiety in the Chicago Fed district.
Lots of fears of returning to pandemic era economic conditions.
A tariff is like a stagflationary shock, challenging for Fed.
Our goal is to find through line, not jump to conclusions.
The Fed's job is to be cautious in volatile times.
The hard data on economy looks pretty good.
Unemployment rate is around full employment.
Economy has been moving toward the golden path.
Importance of soft data has gotten more important due to less lag.
There's an argument short-run tariffs would not alter economy's path.
If confidence is lost it could cause economic problems.
There is a lot of anxiety in the Chicago Fed district.
Lots of fears of returning to pandemic era economic conditions.
A tariff is like a stagflationary shock, challenging for Fed.
19:09 Fed's Bowman: Tariff impact remains unclear
Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Michelle Bowman noted on Thursday that although US growth figures remain healthy overall, and inflation up to this point remains under control, key difficulties still remain ahead.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Michelle Bowman noted on Thursday that although US growth figures remain healthy overall, and inflation up to this point remains under control, key difficulties still remain ahead.Key highlightsUS economy is strong.
Growth is solid, but slowing.
Inflation came down, CPI report shows.
Watching to see how evolving policies affect the economy.
Unclear how tariffs affect the economy.
Tariff effects on industry also unclear.
There has been volatility in the stock market.
Stress test process will move forward as planned.
Would "absolutely" stand up for Fed independence.
Agree with principles of cost-benefit analysis to support rule-making.
Growth is solid, but slowing.
Inflation came down, CPI report shows.
Watching to see how evolving policies affect the economy.
Unclear how tariffs affect the economy.
Tariff effects on industry also unclear.
There has been volatility in the stock market.
Stress test process will move forward as planned.
Would "absolutely" stand up for Fed independence.
Agree with principles of cost-benefit analysis to support rule-making.
19:07 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Euro surges near 2025 highs as bullish structure strengthens
The EUR/USD pair extended its rally on Thursday’s session after the European close, pushing toward the 1.1200 area and posting one of its strongest daily gains in recent months.
EUR/USD trades near the 1.1200 zone after a sharp rally.Technical indicators lean bullish, with MACD favoring more upside and key moving averages aligned to support.Support seen near 1.1000 area while resistance is uncharted after breaking to new yearly highs.
The EUR/USD pair extended its rally on Thursday’s session after the European close, pushing toward the 1.1200 area and posting one of its strongest daily gains in recent months. The move, which places the Euro near the upper boundary of its intraday range between 1.09426 and 1.1220, underscores the pair's bullish momentum as it tests fresh 2025 highs.Technically, the structure remains supported by a solid combination of indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 70.98, a level considered high yet still not in extreme overbought territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is flashing a buy signal, pointing to continued upward strength. The Williams Percent Range (−0.50) and Stochastic %K at 68.41 both remain in neutral territory, suggesting there is still room for price extension before a reversal becomes a concern.Key moving averages reinforce the bullish tone. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.08865, the 100-day at 1.05475, and the 200-day at 1.07399 are all sloped upward and well below current levels, confirming broader trend support. Similarly, the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.09561 and the 10-day SMA at 1.09285 further strengthen the short-term positive bias.In terms of levels, initial support is found at 1.10309, followed by 1.09606 and the 10-day EMA at 1.09561. With the pair now trading near yearly highs, resistance is less defined, and traders may look for psychological levels or fib projections as the next potential hurdles.
Daily chart
The EUR/USD pair extended its rally on Thursday’s session after the European close, pushing toward the 1.1200 area and posting one of its strongest daily gains in recent months. The move, which places the Euro near the upper boundary of its intraday range between 1.09426 and 1.1220, underscores the pair's bullish momentum as it tests fresh 2025 highs.Technically, the structure remains supported by a solid combination of indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 70.98, a level considered high yet still not in extreme overbought territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is flashing a buy signal, pointing to continued upward strength. The Williams Percent Range (−0.50) and Stochastic %K at 68.41 both remain in neutral territory, suggesting there is still room for price extension before a reversal becomes a concern.Key moving averages reinforce the bullish tone. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.08865, the 100-day at 1.05475, and the 200-day at 1.07399 are all sloped upward and well below current levels, confirming broader trend support. Similarly, the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.09561 and the 10-day SMA at 1.09285 further strengthen the short-term positive bias.In terms of levels, initial support is found at 1.10309, followed by 1.09606 and the 10-day EMA at 1.09561. With the pair now trading near yearly highs, resistance is less defined, and traders may look for psychological levels or fib projections as the next potential hurdles.
Daily chart
18:49 President Trump increases tariffs on China to 145%
The White House has confirmed to the media that the effective US tariff rate on Chinese imports now soars to 145%.
The White House has confirmed to the media that the effective US tariff rate on Chinese imports now soars to 145%.According to the latest executive order, tariffs on Beijing's goods have been ramped up from 84% to 125%—an increase that adds to an existing 20% fentanyl-related tariff already in place.
18:36 United States 4-Week Bill Auction up to 4.245% from previous 4.24%
United States 4-Week Bill Auction up to 4.245% from previous 4.24%
18:33 Breaking: Gold prices hit an all-time high past $3,170
Gold prices extend their advance and reach a record peak beyond the $3,170 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday.
Gold prices extend their advance and reach a record peak beyond the $3,170 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday. The intense sell-off in the Greenback, unabated concerns surrounding the US-China trade war and prospects of further easing by the Federal Reserve continue to underpin the constructive bias in the precious metal.
17:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change below expectations (60B) in April 4: Actual (57B)
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change below expectations (60B) in April 4: Actual (57B)
17:09 Fed’s Schmid: Tariffs have elevated economic uncertainty
Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeff Schmid said that he would remain “squarely focused” on inflation and cautioned that new US import taxes could drive prices higher and bolster rising public inflation expectations.
Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeff Schmid said that he would remain “squarely focused” on inflation and cautioned that new US import taxes could drive prices higher and bolster rising public inflation expectations. Schmid’s prepared remarks did not address March CPI or President Trump’s announced pause on certain tariffs.Key highlightsTariff announcements have elevated economic uncertainty, coincided with falling sentiment and rise in short-term inflation expectations. Relative to earlier in the year, there is a marked increase in risk of higher inflation, lower employment and growth. Growing possibility the Fed will have to balance inflation risks against growth and employment. Intend to remain focused on inflation, do not take much solace from theory that tariffs may have only temporary effect on inflation. He is concerned further increase could push up inflation expectations, given previous high inflation. Not willing to take any chances with Fed’s credibility on inflation. Growing supply of US treasury debt along with potentially shrinking demand is a recipe for higher interest rates in the longer term. The US is entering a challenging period from a position of strength, labour market has remained robust.
16:37 Fed’s Logan: Fed’s policy stance is well positioned
During her Thursday remarks, Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan warned that tariffs exceeding expectations would almost certainly spark a surge in both unemployment and inflation.
During her Thursday remarks, Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan warned that tariffs exceeding expectations would almost certainly spark a surge in both unemployment and inflation.Key QuotesImportant to keep any tariff-related price increases from fostering more persistent inflation. If higher inflation expectations get entrenched, the road to price stability is longer, and economic scars are deeper. For now, the stance of Fed policy is well positioned. Financial markets have been volatile. Higher-than-expected tariffs would very likely raise both unemployment and inflation. A sustained burst of inflation could lead to a rise in inflation expectations. Inflation persistence will depend on how quickly companies pass through cost increases, and if long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.
16:30 White House’s Miran: President Trump is buying time to create trade deals
Stephen Miran, President Trump’s Economic Adviser, argued that the White House’s policies are aimed at keeping inflation contained.
Stephen Miran, President Trump’s Economic Adviser, argued that the White House’s policies are aimed at keeping inflation contained.Key TakeawaysPresident is buying time to create trade deals. Never thought that we were headed for meaningful recession. Need to get regulations out of the way so that companies can build factories faster. President Trump's policies are working at keeping inflation at bay.
16:14 BoE’s Breeden: US tariffs are the biggest change in trade policy
Bank’s of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gave her views on the recently announced US tariffs and their potential economic impact.
Bank’s of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gave her views on the recently announced US tariffs and their potential economic impact.Key QuotesLatest developments have a material impact on economic outlook and risks. World has moved on significantly since march mpc meeting. US tariffs are biggest change in trade policy in a century. Very unclear what overall landscape will be for tariffs in medium term. Overall tariffs are likely to lower uk growth. Impact on inflation from US tariffs not clear cut. So far sterling has not weakened due to tariffs, this could change. Too early to call overall impact on inflation for UK and hence appropriate monetary response to tariffs.Government bond yields have beeen volatile.We judge the risk of a further sharp correction to risky asset prices remains high.The UK banking system will still have capacity to support the economy even if conditions worsen substantially.
16:06 CAD holds range but USD undertone is softening – Scotiabank
There was a little confusion around the temporary roll-back of US tariffs yesterday.
There was a little confusion around the temporary roll-back of US tariffs yesterday. Canada was not included in the round of reciprocal tariffs announced on Liberation Day but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the 10% baseline tariff applied to both Canada and Mexico, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CAD gains modestly on the day"It turns out that was incorrect, a reflection of how confused policymaking is right now. Other tariffs, of course, remain in place. The CAD has weathered all the recent uncertainty relatively well, despite headwinds from higher market volatility and weaker commodities. Narrowed spreads are providing some support for the CAD and helping nudge our fair value estimate a little lower." "Spot is trading below today’s updated estimated equilibrium though (1.4128) and the USD’s undervaluation may firm up support for USDCAD in the 1.40/1.41 range. The USD is heading for a fourth weekly loss versus the CAD and a weekly close under 1.4107 (50% retracement of the Sep/Feb USD rally) would suggest more downside pressure building on spot." "As it is, there is a clearer strengthening of USD-bearish trend momentum on the intraday and daily charts which suggests the USD is at risk of retesting last week’s low at 1.4025/30 and making a run at 1.3945 (61.8% retracement support). Note the 200-day MA sits at 1.4005."
16:03 USD softer as there are still major challenges – Scotiabank
So the US paused reciprocal tariff action for 90 days on non-retaliating countries but maintained a base line 10% tariff just hours after imposing aggressive levies on its major trading partners. China gets whacked with 125% tariffs though, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
So the US paused reciprocal tariff action for 90 days on non-retaliating countries but maintained a base line 10% tariff just hours after imposing aggressive levies on its major trading partners. China gets whacked with 125% tariffs though, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD softens broadly as there are still major challenges"This had nothing to do with heightened volatility in markets. It was all part of the plan and rather reflects the lengthy line up of countries wanting to negotiate tariffs, discussions in which the president wants to be 'personally involved', according to the WH press secretary. The art of the deal. This is all nonsense, of course. There can be little doubt that the volatility in equities and fixed income (especially) played a role." "Markets surged in response to the pause news but confidence in US policymaking has been severely dented and markets will remain vulnerable to trade-related headlines while the US and China continue to slug it out. Moreover, US tariffs are still higher than they were and, by some estimates, the aggregate effective trade-weighted tariff remains around 25% after yesterday’s moves and more (copper, pharma) tariffs might still be coming. After weeks of uncertainty which have stalled hiring and investment, global growth prospects have softened. Markets can breathe a sigh of relief but there are still major challenges here." "That’s reflected in price action so far today. Overseas stocks have strengthened on the coattails of yesterday’s US market rebound but US equity futures are down sharply again. Crude oil continues to slide on growth worries while bonds are mostly firmer (ex Bunds). The USD is weaker again, with the JPY and CHF outperforming and gold is firmly bid. Near-term risks remain tilted towards the DXY dipping back to the 99/100 area, I believe."
16:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $658B vs $645.6B
Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $658B vs $645.6B
15:59 ECB: April cut looks likely – Standard Chartered
ECB’s April policy meeting could be a close call, but we lean towards a 25bps cut. For now, our base case is a June hold, but we see growing risks of another cut given tariff threats.
ECB’s April policy meeting could be a close call, but we lean towards a 25bps cut. For now, our base case is a June hold, but we see growing risks of another cut given tariff threats. Fiscal stimulus and tariff uncertainty means various scenarios for ECB policy are plausible, Standard Chartered's analysts Christopher Graham and Saabir Salad note. Offsetting risks – tariffs versus fiscal"We expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to deliver a seventh consecutive 25bps rate cut at its policy meeting next week (17 April). Recent economic data – notably the larger-than-expected decline in March services inflation – and dovish comments from Governing Council (GC) members lend weight to this view. However, the announcement of a 90-day reprieve on US reciprocal tariffs on 9 April means a cut is far from guaranteed, as some GC hawks could now push harder for a pause.""If the ECB cuts next week, then the June meeting could offer an opportunity to hold, which for now is our base case. The debate around the neutral rate will become starker as the deposit rate falls further, with both hawks and centrists becoming more resistant to further easing without a clear economic justification. However, that justification could build over the coming weeks depending on any further US tariff developments and the progress (if any) of US-EU trade negotiations by that point; we wrote yesterday on the difficulties associated with reaching a broad trade deal.""However, by the June meeting we should also have greater clarity on Germany’s fiscal stimulus plans, as well as broader defence spending increases across the EU; updated ECB macroeconomic projections should reflect the growth and inflation implications of both. The degree of economic uncertainty is clearly elevated, and the combination of upside risks from fiscal stimulus and downside risks from tariff uncertainty means that various scenarios for ECB rates remain plausible; we expect this to be reflected in Lagarde’s comments during the press conference."
15:53 JPY outperforms as risk sentiment sours – Scotiabank
Japanese Yen JPY is outperforming nearly all the G10 currencies, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Japanese Yen JPY is outperforming nearly all the G10 currencies, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. PPI adds to support"JPY is outperforming nearly all the G10 currencies, with the exception of CHF, entering Thursday’s NA session with an astounding 1.5% gain vs. the USD. The safe haven currency is outperforming on the back of a shift in the broader market’s risk tone. Domestic releases have provided for some fundamental strength as well, with markets reacting positively to stronger-than-expected PPI data."
15:47 GBP firmer as markets pare bets for BoE easing – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is up about 0.6% vs. the USD and a mid-performer among its G10 peers, climbing back into the 1.29-1.30 congestion range that had prevailed ahead of last week’s tariff turbulence, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is up about 0.6% vs. the USD and a mid-performer among its G10 peers, climbing back into the 1.29-1.30 congestion range that had prevailed ahead of last week’s tariff turbulence, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. GBP/USD’s sharp recovery is notable"Fundamentals are shifting in the pound’s favor as markets pare back their expectations for BoE easing, offering support via wider UK -US spreads. Friday’s industrial production and trade data releases should keep the focus on domestic fundamentals." "GBP/USD’s sharp recovery is notable. The RSI’s dip into bearish territory (below 50) has proven to be short-lived, and the focus is now on the 1.29-1.30 congestion range that had prevailed through much of March and the first couple of trading days in April. Resistance is expected between 1.31 and 1.32 while support is expected below 1.28."
15:45 EUR well supported on US tariff relief – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is entering Thursday’s NA session with an impressive 1.1% gain, climbing back toward the upper end of its one-week range and threatening a break to levels last seen in October.
Euro (EUR) is entering Thursday’s NA session with an impressive 1.1% gain, climbing back toward the upper end of its one-week range and threatening a break to levels last seen in October. The focus remains on trade and the easing in tensions provided by the US’s 90-day pause on tariffs as well as a rumored delay in EU counter tariffs, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. EUR well supported on EU efforts on response"The EU is also reported to be working on concessions, the latest of which would be an increase in energy imports and specifically US LNG. Markets are currently pricing in about 23bpts of easing for the April 17 ECB meeting, despite some policymakers’ shift toward a pause. A surprise pause would be EUR-positive." "EUR/USD is showing renewed signs of strength and price action is bullish as we look to the possibility of a renewed push toward 1.11. Near-term resistance is expected in the mid-1.11s, followed by 1.12. Support is expected in the 1.0900-1.0950 area."
15:40 US: Initial Jobless Claims increased to 223K last week
US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance ticked a tad higher to 223K for the week ending April 5, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This print matched initial estimates and was higher than the previous week's unrevised tally of 219K.
Initial Jobless Claims matched consensus at 223K.Continuing Jobless Claims dropped to 1.850M.US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance ticked a tad higher to 223K for the week ending April 5, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This print matched initial estimates and was higher than the previous week's unrevised tally of 219K.The report also highlighted a seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate of 1.2%, while the four-week moving average held steady at 223K from the prior week’s unrevised average.Moreover, Continuing Jobless Claims went down by 43K to reach 1.850M for the week ending March 29.Market reactionThe Greenback remains well on the defensive on Thursday, trading at multi-day lows near 101.50 as investors assess the jobs data and US inflation readings.
15:31 United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a up to 325.66 in March from previous 325.48
United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a up to 325.66 in March from previous 325.48
15:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims registered at 1.85M, below expectations (1.88M) in March 28
United States Continuing Jobless Claims registered at 1.85M, below expectations (1.88M) in March 28
15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims meets forecasts (223K) in April 4
United States Initial Jobless Claims meets forecasts (223K) in April 4
15:30 United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.4%, below expectations (2.6%) in March
United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.4%, below expectations (2.6%) in March
15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average remains at 223K in April 4
United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average remains at 223K in April 4
15:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) registered at 2.9% above expectations (-0.8%) in February
Canada Building Permits (MoM) registered at 2.9% above expectations (-0.8%) in February
15:30 United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) below expectations (0.3%) in March: Actual (0.1%)
United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) below expectations (0.3%) in March: Actual (0.1%)
15:30 United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) below forecasts (3%) in March: Actual (2.8%)
United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) below forecasts (3%) in March: Actual (2.8%)
15:30 United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) below forecasts (320.17) in March: Actual (319.799)
United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) below forecasts (320.17) in March: Actual (319.799)
15:30 United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.1%) in March: Actual (-0.1%)
United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.1%) in March: Actual (-0.1%)
14:31 EUR/USD rallies back above 1.1000 as markets digest Trump’s surprise move on tariffs
The EUR/USD pair edges higher and recovers to 1.1050 at the time of writing on Thursday.
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Markets brace for March US CPI data release and more headlines on tariffs. The EUR/USD rally is still intact and re-enters the 1.1000-1.1500 region. The EUR/USD pair edges higher and recovers to 1.1050 at the time of writing on Thursday. A whipsaw session on Wednesday saw EUR/USD ranging from 1.1095 all the way down to 1.0913 as United States (US) President Donald Trump eased off his tariffs stance and lowered the reciprocal tariff rate for all countries to 10% during a 90-day pause. The move came after several people, such as Elon Musk, Bill Ackman and some leading republican party figures – US Stock markets were also giving signs of warning – advised the US president that the reciprocal levies approach was hitting nerves. The 90-day pause was applauded by markets as US Equities went through the roof. The focus this Thursday will shift to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March. Daily digest market movers: All eyes on US CPI At 12:30 GMT, quite a lot of data will be released:March US CPI data:Headline monthly inflation is expected to come in at 0.1%, compared to 0.2% in February. The yearly headline inflation should fall to 2.6% in March, coming from 2.8%.Core monthly inflation is expected to tick up to 0.3%, coming from 0.2%. The yearly core inflation should ease to 3.0% in March from 3.1% the previous month.Weekly US Jobless Claims will be released as well, with the initial claims seen at 223,000, coming from 219,000. The Continuing Claims should fall to 1.88 million from 1.903 million last week. At 13:30 GMT, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan is due to speak.At 14:00 GMT, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman gives a testimony at the Nomination Hearing Before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs.At 16:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President and CEO Austan Goolsbee speaks at the Economic Club of New York.At 16:30 GMT, Philadelphia Fed bank President Patrick Harker will comment on Fintech in the '2025 Fintech and Financial Institutions Research Conference' at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Ten Independence Mall, Philadelphia.Equities are rallying, with European ones firmly in the green, up over 5%. US futures are sinking lower, though, as the rejoicement from Wednesday after Trump’s tariffs announcement seems to be short-lived for now. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the chances of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in May have decreased to only 19,5% compared with 44.6% seen on Tuesday. For June, the chances of lower borrowing costs are 75.3%. The US 10-year yield trades around 4.29% and is looking for direction after the bounce throughout this week. Technical Analysis: Volatile pathThe EUR/USD pair is clearly facing volatility since Trump went ahead with his reciprocal tariffs announcement and implementation. The 90-day pause announced on Wednesday was briefly seen as a reason to strengthen the Greenback, but now market sentiment turns around the fact that 90 days might not be that much time to negotiate with all the countries hit by reciprocal tariffs on all kinds of products and goods. The 1.1000 important psychological level is being reclaimed, with the EUR/USD nearing the 1.1050 area at the time of writing. The next target is the 1.1200 level, which limited the EUR/USD advance in August and September 2024, with interim resistance at the current year-to-date high of 1.1146.On the downside, the ascending trend line, coming in around 1.0910, should do the trick to support the rally. In case this line is broken, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0735 could limit the downside. Below there, the 1.0667 pivotal level and the 55-day SMA at 1.0645 should be able to support the major currency pair. EUR/USD: Weekly Chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
14:30 Gold: Bulls strike back – OCBC
Gold rose back above 3100, from under 3000 overnight as earlier sell-off dissipated. XAU/USD was last at 3123 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Gold rose back above 3100, from under 3000 overnight as earlier sell-off dissipated. XAU/USD was last at 3123 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Risks skewed to the upside"It is likely that the previous sell-off was more a case of broad liquidation across asset classes (or margin calls, etc) but as the sell-off settles, gold is still a hedge in times of uncertainty. Gold’s rebound reflects growing investor anxiety over tariff threats and the potential reshaping of global trade norms." "As protectionist rhetoric escalates, markets are increasingly pricing in policy uncertainty and the risk that established economic and trade frameworks could be rewritten. In this environment, gold has its role as a strategic hedge – not just against inflation, but also against geopolitical fragmentation and the risk of a more disorderly global economic order." "Bearish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI rose. Risks skewed to the upside. Resistance at 3167 (recent high). Support at 3048 (21 DMA), 2960 (50 DMA)."
14:27 WH Economic Adviser Hassett: Conversations on China have not begun yet
In an interview with CNBC on Thursday, Kevin Hassett, Director of the US National Economic Council (NEC), said that there is a big inventory of deals that are very close to the finish line, per Reuters.
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In an interview with CNBC on Thursday, Kevin Hassett, Director of the US National Economic Council (NEC), said that there is a big inventory of deals that are very close to the finish line, per Reuters.Key takeaways"Bond market may have contributed to tariff decision but did not cause a panic move.""We have set up a process for tariff deals so they can be orderly.""Deal schedule is very doable.""Conversations on China have not begun yet."Market reactionThe US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction to these remarks and was last seen losing 0.95% on the day at 101.92. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
14:21 EC President von der Leyen: EU agrees on 90-day pause in countermeasures against US
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed on Thursday that they have agreed to pause countermeasures against the US tariffs for 90 days.
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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed on Thursday that they have agreed to pause countermeasures against the US tariffs for 90 days."We took note of the announcement by President Trump. We want to give negotiations a chance," she said in a social media post. "While finalising the adoption of the EU countermeasures that saw strong support from our member states, we will put them on hold for 90 days." Meanwhile, a spokesperson for the European Commission noted that the EU is telling the US that they are ready to start talking and make a deal.Market reactionEUR/USD preserves its bullish momentum and trades near 1.1070, gaining more than 1% on the day. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
14:17 USD/JPY spikes, then retreats – OCBC
USD/JPY jumped sharply to 148.27 overnight as safe haven trades unwind after Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause. We had cautioned for the risk of a short squeeze in our report yesterday. Pair was last at 145.78 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
USD/JPY jumped sharply to 148.27 overnight as safe haven trades unwind after Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause. We had cautioned for the risk of a short squeeze in our report yesterday. Pair was last at 145.78 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Fed-BoJ divergence favors yen"Daily momentum is mild bearish while RSI fell. Risks skewed to the downside. Support at 145, 144.10 levels. Resistance at 147, 148.75 (21 DMA) and 150.30 (50 DMA). Cutting through the noise, we still look for USD/JPY to trend lower, premised on safe-haven flow and Fed-BoJ policy divergence (Fed rate cut cycle while the BoJ has room to further pursue policy normalisation)." "Wage growth, broadening services inflation and upbeat economic activities in Japan should continue to support BoJ policy normalisation although tariff uncertainty may complicate BoJ outlook to some extent. Fed-BoJ policy divergence should bring about further narrowing of UST-JGB yield differentials, in turn underpinning the broader direction of travel for USD/JPY to the downside."
14:13 EUR/NOK fails to hold breakout – Societe Generale
EUR/NOK's recent breakout attempt above 12.05 was short-lived, as strong resistance pushed the pair back into its consolidation range. Key support at 11.68 now becomes critical for the near-term outlook, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.
EUR/NOK's recent breakout attempt above 12.05 was short-lived, as strong resistance pushed the pair back into its consolidation range. Key support at 11.68 now becomes critical for the near-term outlook, Societe Generale's FX analysts report. Key support at 11.68 in focus"EUR/NOK attempted a breakout from its multiyear range (above 12.05) recently but has quickly retracted after facing strong resistance at 12.21. Re-integration within previous consolidation denotes lack of upward momentum." "The low achieved earlier this week at 11.68 is crucial support. In case this is breached, EUR/NOK could embark on a deeper pullback. The pair must establish itself beyond 12.05 to denote next leg of uptrend."
14:00 South Africa Manufacturing Production Index (YoY) increased to -3.2% in February from previous -3.3%
South Africa Manufacturing Production Index (YoY) increased to -3.2% in February from previous -3.3%
13:57 AUD/USD: Tariff relief for 90 days – OCBC
Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounded 4% from its lows overnight after Trump pauses tariffs on most nations for 90 days. Pair was last at 0.6170 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounded 4% from its lows overnight after Trump pauses tariffs on most nations for 90 days. Pair was last at 0.6170 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Bearish momentum on daily chart wanes "Regional equities traded sharply higher. Taiwan was up >9% while KOSPI, STI and Nikkei were up more than 5%. This morning, AUD drifted higher slightly on news that China leaders will meet to discuss stimulus after Trump’s tariff shock. ""Bearish momentum on daily chart waned while RSI rose from near oversold conditions. Resistance here at 0.6160 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of Oct high to Apr low), 0.6250/80 levels (21, 50 DMAs) and 0.6310 (38.2% fibo). Support at 0.60, 0.5915 (recent low)."
13:46 USD/JPY: Downward momentum is beginning to ease – UOB Group
After the sharp swings, the outlook is unclear; US Dollar (USD) could trade in a range of 145.40/148.50 vs Japanese Yen (JPY).
After the sharp swings, the outlook is unclear; US Dollar (USD) could trade in a range of 145.40/148.50 vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, downward momentum is beginning to ease; a breach of 148.50 would indicate that the weakness in USD has stabilised, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.USD can trade in a range of 145.40/148.5024-HOUR VIEW: "We noted yesterday that USD 'has gathered momentum,' but we were of the view that it 'might not be able to break below 145.00.' USD weakened more than expected, plummeting to a low of 143.98 and then rallied sharply during the NY session (high was 148.27). After the sharp swings, the outlook is mixed. Today, USD could trade in a range of 145.40/148.50."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held a negative USD view since early this month. In our latest narrative from two days ago (08 Apr, spot at 147.50), we pointed out that 'the oversold weakness in USD has not stabilized.' We indicated that 'there is a chance for USD to drop below 145.00 again before the risk of another rebound increases.' Yesterday, USD dropped to 143.98 before rebounding strongly. Downward momentum is beginning to ease, and a breach of 148.50 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the weakness in USD has stabilised. Until then, there is a small chance for USD to retest the 144.00 level."
13:43 USD/CNH: 2-way trades for the time being – OCBC
Despite Trump raising tariffs on China to 125% overnight, USD/CNH fell as broader sentiment improved. Trump unexpectedly paused higher tariffs on 56 nations (excluding China) for 90 days.
Despite Trump raising tariffs on China to 125% overnight, USD/CNH fell as broader sentiment improved. Trump unexpectedly paused higher tariffs on 56 nations (excluding China) for 90 days. Tension between US and China remain elevated, as China tariffs on US goods stand at 84% while US tariff on China goods are at 125%. US Treasury secretary Bessent has indicated all options remain on the table, including the possibility of delisting Chinese companies from US stock exchanges. USD/CNH was last at 7.3164 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Range-bound trade intact"Yesterday, Reuters reported that PBoC is asking state lenders to reduce dollar purchases. We do not rule out the risk of further measures from both US and China but at the same time, we also do not rule out a chance of conciliation. So, risks are both ways as developments are very fluid. On RMB, we are neutral on the outlook for now. There are market chatters of RMB potentially seeing more depreciation to perhaps devaluation pressure, but we believe policymakers are likely to favour only some degree of measured RMB weakness while still maintaining a stable composure.""The trend for daily USD/CNY fix is still an important source to gauge policymakers’ preference. A softer magnitude of increase in USD/CNY fix should calm sentiments for RMB, as well as provide a breather for AxJs. But any larger adjustment seen in the fix may be taken as a hint that policymakers may allow for greater RMB flexibility." "Bullish momentum on daily chart shows tentative signs of fading while RSI eased slightly from overbought conditions. Range-bound trade intact. Support at 7.29 (100 DMA). Resistance at 7.38, 7.42 levels. Currency bias may change or improve dependent on how trade negotiations pan out to be or if the de-dollarisation trend overwhelms."
13:30 NZD/USD: Weakness in NZD has stabilised – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could test 0.5695 vs US Dollar (USD) before the risk of a pullback increases. In the longer run, weakness in NZD has stabilised; it is likely to consolidate between 0.5540 and 0.5760 for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could test 0.5695 vs US Dollar (USD) before the risk of a pullback increases. In the longer run, weakness in NZD has stabilised; it is likely to consolidate between 0.5540 and 0.5760 for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.NZD is likely to consolidate between 0.5540 and 0.5760 for now24-HOUR VIEW: "While we expected NZD to decline yesterday, we stated that 'it is unclear whether there is enough momentum for NZD to break the major support at 0.5450.' Our view was incorrect as after dipping to a low of 0.5485, NZD rebounded. During the NY session, it lifted off and surged to 0.5668, closing sharply higher by 2.07%at 0.5650. Today, provided that NZD holds above 0.5580 (minor support at 0.5620), it could test 0.5695 before the risk of a pullback increases. The major resistance at 0.5760 is not expected to come under threat."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "The following are the excerpts from our update two days ago (08 Apr, spot at 0.5545): 'Although it is too early to expect the weakness to stabilise, it remains to be seen how much more can NZD decline. The next support is at 0.5450.' Yesterday, NZD dropped to 0.5485 and then surged, breaking above our ‘strong resistance’ level at 0.5650. The breach of the ‘strong resistance’ suggests that the weakness in NZD has stabilised. NZD has likely entered a consolidation phase, and it is likely to trade between 0.5540 and 0.5760 for now."
13:21 GBP: Gilt baggage – ING
EUR/GBP briefly traded to 0.8650 yesterday – a move which seems to coincide with the sell-off in UK gilts. That UK gilts even underperformed US Treasuries is quite remarkable and probably very unnerving for the UK's Debt Management Office, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
EUR/GBP briefly traded to 0.8650 yesterday – a move which seems to coincide with the sell-off in UK gilts. That UK gilts even underperformed US Treasuries is quite remarkable and probably very unnerving for the UK's Debt Management Office, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.GBP/USD can meet buyers near 1.2800 "One view here is that the DMO is already pushing the limits with £300bn of new issuance this year and that any greater slowdown in the UK economy, which would hit revenues/raise welfare spending, would only hit gilts harder. Clearly, then, the gilt market is an Achilles heel for sterling.""The market now prices around three cuts for the Bank of England this year, with which we agree. We're a little reluctant to call EUR/GBP quickly back below 0.8500 since bond markets might struggle with another high US CPI reading today. GBP/USD could meet buyers near 1.2800 if our EUR/USD thesis holds today.""Better news, however, has been coming from US Treasury auctions, where the 10 year went quite well yesterday and expectations are for a decent 30 year auction today."
13:16 Copper rallies on tariff pause – ING
Copper and other base metals rallied in early morning trading today following President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.
Copper and other base metals rallied in early morning trading today following President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.Stimulus hopes support metal prices"Clearly, though, there’s still plenty of uncertainty as tariffs against key metal consumer, China, have been raised to 125%. A prolonged trade war would drag on consumer confidence, weaken appetite for risk and weigh on demand for raw materials." "However, the prospect of a prolonged trade war has also raised expectations for Beijing to unveil more aggressive stimulus measures. This could cap the downside to copper and other industrial metals."
13:11 EU considers pausing countermeasures against US for 90 days – Reuters
The European Union is considering pausing its countermeasures, due on April 15, against the United States' tariffs for 90 days, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing EU diplomats.
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The European Union is considering pausing its countermeasures, due on April 15, against the United States' tariffs for 90 days, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing EU diplomats.The EU announced counter-tariffs on about 21 billion euros worth of US goods in response to US President Donald Trump's decision to impose sweeping 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum.Market reactionThe Euro continues to gather strength following this headline. At the time of press, EUR/USD was trading at 1.1065, where it was up 1.05% on a daily basis. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
13:08 RBA’s Bullock: Too early for us to determine what the path will be for interest rates
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock spoke at the Chief Executive Women 40th Anniversary Melbourne Annual Dinner, on Thursday.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock spoke at the Chief Executive Women 40th Anniversary Melbourne Annual Dinner, on Thursday.Key quotesTariff unpredictability means need patience to assess how this could affect demand and supply.Too early for us to determine what the path will be for interest rates.Focus remains on our dual mandate for price stability and full employment.Will be period of uncertainty, adjustment as countries respond to US tariffs.Not currently seeing the same degree of impact as previous market events like in 2008Australian financial system is strong, well placed to absorb shocks from abroadKey focus is how all this uncertainty affects decisions of Australian households, businessesClosely monitoring financial market conditions, in touch with other central banksWatching exchange rate, response of our trading partners, counter-responses from the US.
13:07 China mulls tariff response to US hike – ING
Markets are watching closely as China weighs a response to the latest US tariff hike. With limited trade impact, the focus shifts to potential currency movements and consumer strain, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Markets are watching closely as China weighs a response to the latest US tariff hike. With limited trade impact, the focus shifts to potential currency movements and consumer strain, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Yuan under pressure amid retaliation risks Let's also look out today for whether China is set to retaliate again to Washington's latest hike in China tariffs to 125%. Our Greater China economist, Lynn Song, makes the great point that we've probably reached the point where tariffs no longer have any impact on trade decisions and only hit the consumer with inelastic demand. For reference, the onshore USD/CNY is currently pressing the +2% band around the daily fix and USD/CNH could head back to 7.42 if China does announce new tariffs today.
13:04 AUD/USD seems to have enough momentum to test 0.6195 – UOB Group
Sharp rally in Australian Dollar (AUD) seems to have enough momentum to test 0.6195 before leveling off. In the longer run, for the time being, AUD is expected to trade in a 0.6000/0.6290 range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Sharp rally in Australian Dollar (AUD) seems to have enough momentum to test 0.6195 before leveling off. In the longer run, for the time being, AUD is expected to trade in a 0.6000/0.6290 range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.AUD is expected to trade in a 0.6000/0.6290 range24-HOUR VIEW: "We noted yesterday that 'downward momentum has increased slightly.' We held the view that AUD 'is likely to edge lower but is unlikely to reach 0.5870' and that 'there is another support at 0.5900.' AUD subsequently dipped to 0.5910. In the NY session, it staged a sharp rally that sent it soaring by 3.30% (0.6152), marking its largest one-day rise since 2010. While the outsized rally appears overdone, AUD seems to have enough momentum to test 0.6195 before leveling off. The major resistance at 0.6290 is not expected to come into view. On the downside, supports are located at 0.6100 and 0.6055."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We indicated on Tuesday (08 Apr, spot at 0.6005) that 'although further declines are not ruled out, given the deeply oversold conditions, it is unclear if AUD can reach the next support at 0.5870.' Yesterday, Wednesday, AUD dropped to 0.5910 and then, in a stunning reversal, surged to a high of 0.6174. Not surprisingly, downward momentum has dissipated. Upward has increased, but not enough to indicate a sustained rise. For the time being, we expect AUD to trade in a 0.6000/0.6290 range."
13:02 Ireland HICP (MoM) meets forecasts (0.7%) in March
Ireland HICP (MoM) meets forecasts (0.7%) in March
13:02 Ireland Consumer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous 0.9% to 0.7% in March
Ireland Consumer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous 0.9% to 0.7% in March
13:02 Ireland Consumer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 1.8% to 2% in March
Ireland Consumer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 1.8% to 2% in March
13:02 Ireland HICP (YoY) meets forecasts (1.8%) in March
Ireland HICP (YoY) meets forecasts (1.8%) in March
12:47 Gold price enters hotspot region with new all-time high possible
Gold price (XAU/USD) is delivering a jaw-breaking performance this Thursday in the early trading session, moving around $3,107 at the time of writing. Since Tuesday morning, the precious metal has rallied nearly 5.00%.
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Equity markets are on fire, rallying higher after Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Gold could hit a fresh all-time high later in the day. Gold price (XAU/USD) is delivering a jaw-breaking performance this Thursday in the early trading session, moving around $3,107 at the time of writing. Since Tuesday morning, the precious metal has rallied nearly 5.00%. The main driver for the rally came from United States (US) President Donald Trump, who announced a 90-day pause to higher tariffs on 56 countries and the European Union, which will now be taxed at the 10% baseline rate. Trump also hiked levies on China to 125%, effective immediately, after the Asian country announced plans to retaliate with an 84% tariff on all US imports to take effect on Thursday. Those moves are exacerbating concerns that the world’s two biggest economies will keep the trade war escalating. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, weakened the Yuan (CNY) for the sixth straight session, despite US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s warning the country not to do so on Tuesday. It looks like Beijing will use the country’s currency as a negotiation tool, as it did in the last trade war.Daily digest market movers: China stimulus dragThe constant back-and-forth of the US administration’s tariff plan has shaken the entire world, as investors scramble to find direction and certainty. That’s generally been supportive for Gold, which is up 18% this year. The yellow metal has also been bolstered by hopes for more Federal Reserve monetary easing and central bank buying, Bloomberg reports. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the chances of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in May have decreased to only 19,5% compared with 44.6% seen on Tuesday. For June, the chances of lower borrowing costs are 75.3%. Gold is quickly getting back toward recent highs, with today’s boost coming along with a report that Chinese leaders are meeting to discuss stimulus measures. However, there is a bigger picture favoring Gold, which is that other financial assets are failing to retain their value as a safe haven. The precious metal dipped after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and then started a multi-year climb that is still going on. Long-term investors and even central banks are making Bullion a core holding through all market conditions, Reuters reports. Gold Price Technical Analysis: Gold rallies despite tariffs 90-day pauseThe precious metal recovers a two-day loss with a similar sharp move on the back of comments from President Trump and the 90-day delay on tariffs. A delay is just a pause and does not guarantee that deals will be made with all countries. Tensions will brew up again if certain significant trade agreements do not materialize ahead of that 90-day deadline. The first cap of the R1 resistance at $3,131 is being tested when writing, followed by the current all-time high of $3,167. Just above there, the R2 resistance at $3,180 will come in as a hard cap on the topside. On the downside, the daily Pivot Point comes in at $3,050 on Thursday, with the March 10 high pivotal level at $3,057. If this area does not hold as support, bears can target the S1 support at $3,002, with the March 14 high at $3,004 and the $3,000 psychological level making this area a strong support zone.XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
12:41 USD: Damage has been done – ING
The clean take-away from the pause in the worst of the tariffs was a re-assessment of global trade prospects on the view that perhaps tariffs were more transactional after all, and US equity losses are indeed proving a brake on the President's desires to rewire the global trading systems, ING’s FX a
The clean take-away from the pause in the worst of the tariffs was a re-assessment of global trade prospects on the view that perhaps tariffs were more transactional after all, and US equity losses are indeed proving a brake on the President's desires to rewire the global trading systems, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Tariff impact could weigh on dollar outlook"The big winners yesterday in G10 were the commodity currencies – especially those with an Asian link such as the Australian and New Zealand dollar. The underperformers were the previously favoured defensive yen and Swiss franc. In the EM space, Latam gains stood out – the region having previously been hit on the big falls in industrial metals and energy prices.""While US tech hardware and retailers helped drive a 9% rally in the S&P 500, the DXY trade-weighted index is only 1% off its recent lows. Perhaps one stand-out is USD/JPY, which over the last couple of years has typically been trading in a 150-155 range when US 10-year Treasury yields are up at 4.25/30% as they are today. The fact that USD/JPY is still trading on a 146 handle suggests this flip-flopping of policy is now demanding a higher risk premium of US asset markets. Keep an eye on the US sovereign five-year CDS, which has risen to levels last seen in late 2023.""In theory, the dollar could face some upside risks from CPI today, but we favour DXY continuing to trade in a volatile 102.00-103.50 range. And it could come lower again over the coming weeks if it looks like the reciprocal tariff shock has done some damage to hard data in the US consumer and business space."
12:31 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $30.90 per troy ounce, down 0.37% from the $31.02 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver prices have increased by 6.95% since the beginning of the year. Unit measure Silver Price Today in USD Troy Ounce 30.90 1 Gram 0.99
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 100.57 on Thursday, up from 99.40 on Wednesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 100.57 on Thursday, up from 99.40 on Wednesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
12:29 TTF gas prices drop over 7% – ING
European natural gas prices plunged sharply, with TTF falling over 7% amid heavy fund selling. A pause in tariffs may offer a temporary lift, but market positioning remains cautious, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.
European natural gas prices plunged sharply, with TTF falling over 7% amid heavy fund selling. A pause in tariffs may offer a temporary lift, but market positioning remains cautious, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.Tariff pause may lift gas market"European natural gas prices came under significant pressure yesterday with TTF falling by more than 7%. However, the tariff pause should see the gas market opening higher today. Meanwhile, the latest positioning data shows that investment funds have been heavily selling TTF." "Funds sold 19.7TWh over the last reporting week to leave them with a net long of 126.3TWh -- the smallest net long since May last year."
12:15 USD/CAD holds losses below 1.4100 ahead of US CPI data
USD/CAD loses ground for the second successive day, trading around 1.4090 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) remains subdued ahead of the high-impact Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for March set to be published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.
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The CAD may come under pressure as Oil prices soften amid renewed demand concerns triggered by escalating US-China trade tensions.USD/CAD loses ground for the second successive day, trading around 1.4090 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) remains subdued ahead of the high-impact Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for March set to be published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.US inflation is set to rise at an annual pace of 2.6% in March, down slightly from the 2.8% reported in February. Core CPI inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, is expected to ease to 3% in the same period from a year earlier, compared to a 3.1% growth in the previous month.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes suggested that policymakers nearly unanimously agree that the US economy faces the dual risk of rising inflation and slowing growth, warning of “difficult tradeoffs” ahead for the Federal Reserve.Fed officials continue to downplay the immediate impact of escalating trade tensions, maintaining that policy decisions will remain data-driven. Market participants are now pricing in just a 40% chance of a rate cut at next month’s Fed meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.However, the downside for the USD/CAD pair may be limited as crude Oil prices weaken. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $60.20 per barrel, with prices under pressure due to renewed demand concerns stemming from heightened US-China trade tensions. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
12:11 GBP/USD: Still trading in a range – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is still trading in a range vs US Dollar (USD), expected to be between 1.2750 and 1.2870. In the longer run, GBP could decline further; it is unclear if it can reach the next major support at 1.2580, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is still trading in a range vs US Dollar (USD), expected to be between 1.2750 and 1.2870. In the longer run, GBP could decline further; it is unclear if it can reach the next major support at 1.2580, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.GBP can decline further24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected GBP to 'trade in a range between 1.2740 and 1.2860' yesterday. Our view was not wrong, as GBP traded in a range of 1.2743/1.2860, closing at 1.2830 (+0.50%). The price action still appears to be part of a range-trading phase. Today, we expect GBP to trade between 1.2750 and 1.2870."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our most recent narrative from Tuesday (08 Apr, spot at 1.2760), we highlighted that GBP 'could decline further, but it is unclear if it can reach the next major support at 1.2580.' GBP traded mostly in a range over the past couple of days, and there is no change in our view. Overall, only a breach of 1.2925 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 1.2950 yesterday) would suggest that GBP is not declining further."
12:00 Greece Consumer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 2.5% to 2.4% in March
Greece Consumer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 2.5% to 2.4% in March
12:00 Greece Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY): 3.1% (March) vs 3%
Greece Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY): 3.1% (March) vs 3%
12:00 Greece Industrial Production (YoY): -0.1% (February) vs previous 2%
Greece Industrial Production (YoY): -0.1% (February) vs previous 2%
11:56 EUR/CHF falls below 0.93 amid market turmoil – ING
Elsewhere, the Norwegian krone is having a good rally today, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Elsewhere, the Norwegian krone is having a good rally today, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Norwegian Krone gains as inflation persists"It had been hit hard on the global trade/lower oil/poorer liquidity story. Additionally, this morning has seen another sticky core inflation release for March, where underlying inflation remains at 3.4% YoY. This may continue to delay the next Norges Bank rate cut.""At the height of yesterday's market dislocation, we also saw EUR/CHF trading sub 0.93 again. One of many possible angles here is that the Swiss National Bank's hands may be tied when it comes to its traditional FX buying operations." "Sustained FX buying from the SNB could see Switzerland formally named a currency manipulator and be given a top-up to its initial 31% reciprocal US tariff. This may only embolden investors to buy CHF in risk-off episodes – thinking the SNB bid in EUR/CHF will not be as solid as it once was."
11:53 Oil: Tariff pause provides some relief – ING
Oil prices rallied along with risk assets yesterday after President Trump paused reciprocal tariffs on most trading partners, at least those that haven’t retaliated yet. This puts tariffs back to the baseline 10%, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.
Oil prices rallied along with risk assets yesterday after President Trump paused reciprocal tariffs on most trading partners, at least those that haven’t retaliated yet. This puts tariffs back to the baseline 10%, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.Oil rallies on tariff pause, but China hit hard"However, there was no relief for China. The US increased tariffs to 125% after China raised retaliatory tariffs on US goods to 84%. While the pause offers some relief to markets, there’s still plenty of uncertainty on the trade front. This uncertainty is still likely to drag on global growth, which is clearly a concern for oil demand. Still, conditions are not looking as bad as they were just a few days ago.""The ICE Brent forward curve is signalling a better-supplied oil market, at least across parts of the forward curve. While the front end of the curve is in backwardation, it has shifted into contango from the January 2026 contract onwards. Meanwhile, the Brent Dec-25 - Dec-26 spread has fallen into contango. All signs point to a softer market balance a little bit further down the road.""US inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that crude oil inventories increased by 2.55m barrels over the last week. This takes stocks to a little over 442m barrels -- the highest since July. Meanwhile, crude stocks at Cushing grew by 681k barrels, leaving stocks at the WTI delivery hub at their highest level since November. The slightly bearish crude numbers were offset by refined products, with gasoline and distillate stocks falling by 1.6m barrels and 3.5m barrels, respectively."
11:49 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD retreats from weekly top, back below $31.00 ahead of US CPI
Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday uptick and retreats slightly after touching a fresh weekly high, around the $31.30 region during the early European session on Thursday.
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The intraday selling picks up pace in the last hour and drags the white metal back below the $31.00 mark as traders now look forward to the US consumer inflation figures before placing fresh directional bets. From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD now seems to have found acceptance above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent slump from the March swing high to a fresh year-to-date low touched earlier this week. The subsequent move up, however, stalls ahead of the 50% Fibo. level. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart – though they have been recovering from lower levels – are holding in negative territory. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of the weekly uptrend from the $28.25 region, or the lowest level since September 2024. In the meantime, any further slide below the 38.2% Fibo. level is likely to find some support near the $30.55 region. Some follow-through selling, however, could make the XAG/USD vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the $30.00 psychological mark en route to the 23.6% Fibo. level, around the $29.80-$29.75 zone. Failure to defend the said support levels would shift the near-term bias back in favor of bearish traders. The white metal might then decline to the $29.35-$29.30 zone en route to the $29.00 mark and eventually aim towards retesting the multi-month low, around the $28.25 region. On the flip side, bulls might now wait for a sustained strength beyond the daily swing high, around the $31.30 region, which nears the 50% Fibo. level, before placing fresh bets. The subsequent move-up should allow the XAG/USD to reclaim the $32.00 mark and climb further towards the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the $32.15-$32.20 zone. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and lift the white metal beyond the $32.65 intermediate barrier, towards the $33.00 round figure. Silver 4-hour chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
11:49 EUR/USD: Further decline is unlikely to reach 1.0850 – UOB Group
Sharp decline in Euro (EUR) vs US Dollar (USD) has room to test 1.0895 before stabilisation is likely; any further decline is unlikely to reach 1.0850.
Sharp decline in Euro (EUR) vs US Dollar (USD) has room to test 1.0895 before stabilisation is likely; any further decline is unlikely to reach 1.0850. In the longer run, decrease in momentum indicates the chance for EUR to rise has diminished; a breach of 1.0850 would suggest EUR has entered a range-trading phase, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Chance for EUR to rise has diminished24-HOUR VIEW: "While we expected EUR to 'trade with an upside bias' yesterday, we were of the view that 'any advance might not reach 1.1050.' The subsequent price action did not turn out as we expected. EUR soared to 1.1094 and then plunged to 1.0912 before ending the day largely unchanged at 1.0951 (-0.05%). The sharp decline has room to test 1.0895 before stabilisation is likely. Any further decline is unlikely to reach the strong support at 1.0850. Resistance is at 1.0990, followed by 1.1040."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After EUR pulled back to 1.0881 on Monday, we indicated on Tuesday (08 Apr, spot at 1.0925) that the pullback 'has resulted in a decrease in upward momentum, and the chance for EUR to rise has diminished.' We added, 'a breach of 1.0850 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that instead of advancing further, EUR has entered a range-trading phase.' Yesterday (Wednesday), EUR rose to 1.1094 and then fell sharply. There has been no further increase in either upward or downward momentum, and we continue to hold the view that as long as 1.0850 is not breached, there is still a slim chance for EUR to rise."
11:41 Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction fell from previous 3.382% to 3.349%
Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction fell from previous 3.382% to 3.349%
11:33 EUR: EUR/USD remains the 'washing machine' – ING
The EUR/USD market is sometimes referred to as a 'washing machine' where global trade and portfolio flows meet and cancel each other out, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
The EUR/USD market is sometimes referred to as a 'washing machine' where global trade and portfolio flows meet and cancel each other out, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.EUR/USD to consolidate in a 1.09-1.11 range"And EUR/USD has not been a big player in this global trade upheaval. It would be if the idea of a 'sell America' theme were to fully unfold, where the euro asset markets would be one of the few available to absorb any exodus from US assets. Interestingly, it does seem that ECB officials are keen to market the euro as the strong alternative to the dollar at the moment.""In theory, a slightly better outlook for world trade should be a euro-positive. Yet the euro has not been badly hit recently, and in fact the greater repricing of the Fed curve overnight (four expected cuts this year reduced to three) is proving a mild EUR/USD negative.""Expect more consolidation in a 1.09-1.11 range for EUR/USD near term. Should it meet good demand near 1.0900 today on a firm US CPI, price action will be telling us that the investors are still minded to hedge/reduce dollar exposure."
11:29 China: Impact of escalating trade war on prices and growth – UOB Group
In March, China’s CPI and PPI were weighed by weak consumer goods and food prices, lower international oil prices and price pressure in the export industries.
In March, China’s CPI and PPI were weighed by weak consumer goods and food prices, lower international oil prices and price pressure in the export industries. Given that the downward price pressure has turned out to be stronger than expected with further economic headwinds from the trade war, we are lowering our forecast for 2025 CPI and PPI to 0% (from 0.9%) and -2.0% (from -1.2%) respectively, UOB Group’s economist Ho Woei Chen notes.China is due to release its key economic indicators for March"Economic risks have increased sharply in the aftermath of the 2 April Liberation Day with US-China tit-for-tat tariff hikes risking deeper decoupling of trade between the two countries. The repercussion on China’s export and investment will be significant. We may be looking at an impact of as high as 2% point on the GDP growth rate on a full-year basis if the exorbitant tariffs stay in place." "We will make further assessment on the growth impact as the dust settles. China is due to release its key economic indicators for Mar and 1Q25 GDP on 16 Apr. We expect GDP growth of around 5.4% y/y in 1Q25 (4Q24: 5.4%) and our baseline growth forecast of 4.7% will be reviewed to factor in the impact of the additional tariffs.""We expect the PBOC to frontload its monetary policy easing to stabilise markets with near-term prospects of a cut in banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 100 bps as well as the 7-day reverse repo rate by 20 bps to 1.30% by end-2Q25. For the full-year, we retain our call for 30 bps cut to the benchmark 7-day reverse repo rate (with loan prime rates to fall by 30 bps). These moves will bring the 7-day reverse repo rate, 1Y LPR and 5Y LPR to 1.2%, 2.8% and 3.3% by end-2025."
11:23 Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Thursday, early in the European session.
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $60.19 per barrel, down from Wednesday’s close at $62.27. Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $63.55 after its previous daily close at $65.48.
WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil?
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia. Disclaimer: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent oil prices mentioned above are based on FXStreet data feed for Contracts for Differences (CFDs). (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
11:17 NZD/USD rises to near 0.5700 despite dovish comments from Finance Minister Willis
The NZD/USD pair is trading around 0.5680 in early European hours on Thursday, marking its second consecutive day of gains.
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However, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD may come under pressure following comments from New Zealand Finance Minister Nicola Willis, who stated that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has significant scope to cut interest rates further if necessary.In line with market expectations, the RBNZ reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.50% on Wednesday, marking its fifth consecutive rate cut since initiating its easing cycle in 2024. According to UOB Group economist Lee Sue Ann, the central bank has now lowered rates by a total of 200 basis points since August 2024.Additional pressure on the NZD might have emerged after US President Donald Trump escalated trade tensions with China by raising tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, following China’s hiking tariffs on all US imports to 84%. Given New Zealand’s strong trade ties with China, this move sparked concerns about potential spillover effects on the NZ economy.Moreover, China added six US firms—including defense and aerospace companies Shield AI and Sierra Nevada—to its trade blacklist. China also imposed export controls on a dozen US companies, including American Photonics and BRINC Drones.These tit-for-tat measures have overshadowed earlier signs of progress in the US-China trade talks. Notably, Washington had recently eased tariffs to 10% for 90 days to facilitate broader negotiations. On Wednesday, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs for most US trade partners, maintaining the lower 10% rate to give diplomacy more room to operate. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
11:01 Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) registered at -0.9% above expectations (-1%) in February
Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) registered at -0.9% above expectations (-1%) in February
11:00 Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) below expectations (-1.9%) in February: Actual (-2.7%)
Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) below expectations (-1.9%) in February: Actual (-2.7%)
10:49 Forex Today: US Dollar struggles to extend rebound after tariff pause, eyes on CPI
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 10:
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Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 10:Following another volatile day on Wednesday, markets remain cautious on Thursday and the US Dollar (USD) struggles to hold its ground. The US economic calendar will feature Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for March, alongside the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. Several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will also be delivering speeches in the American session.Wall Street's main indexes opened in negative territory on Wednesday after China responded to US tariffs by imposing additional 84% tariffs on US imports from April 10, up from the 34% previously announced. Later in the day, US President Donald Trump announced that he authorized a 90-day pause on reciprocal and 10% tariffs effective immediately but lifted the tariff rate on Chinese imports to 125%. Following this development, major equity indexes in the US shot higher. The Nasdaq Composite gained 12%, the S&P 500 and the Down Jones Industrial Average rose 9.5% and 7.9% on the day, respectively. The USD Index also regained its traction and ended the day marginally higher. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.48% 0.12% 0.62% -1.40% -1.91% -1.68% -0.55% EUR 0.48% 0.89% 1.73% -0.31% -1.51% -0.57% 0.55% GBP -0.12% -0.89% -0.49% -1.19% -2.39% -1.47% -0.35% JPY -0.62% -1.73% 0.49% -1.99% -1.58% -1.06% -0.82% CAD 1.40% 0.31% 1.19% 1.99% -0.85% -0.28% 0.58% AUD 1.91% 1.51% 2.39% 1.58% 0.85% 0.95% 2.08% NZD 1.68% 0.57% 1.47% 1.06% 0.28% -0.95% 1.14% CHF 0.55% -0.55% 0.35% 0.82% -0.58% -2.08% -1.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Reports of China preparing a trade war arsenal to take aim at US companies caused safe-haven flows to return to markets. Additionally, the Chinese Commerce Ministry and Foreign Ministry published a joint statement, saying that they will take further measures to oppose the US bullying. Early Thursday, US stock index futures trade in negative territory and the USD Index loses 0.4% on the day at around 102.50. In the US, the annual inflation, as measured by the change in the CPI, is forecast to soften to 2.6% from 2.8% in February.In the early Asian session, the data from China showed that the CPI declined by 0.4% on a monthly basis in March. After gaining more than 3% on Wednesday, AUD/USD seems to have entered a consolidation phase above 0.6100 in the European session.The European Commission said early Thursday that they will consult with members states and industries, and take the necessary time to assess the latest developments regarding Trump tariffs before deciding on the next step. EUR/USD gathers bullish momentum on Thursday and gains more than 0.5% above 1.1000.GBP/USD closed in positive territory for the second consecutive day on Wednesday. The pair extends its upside in the European session and trades above 1.2850.After rising 1% on Wednesday, USD/JPY reverses its direction and trades at around 146.50 on Thursday, losing about 0.9% on a daily basis.Gold rose more than 3% on Wednesday and erased a large portion of the previous week's losses. XAU/USD preserves its bullish momentum and rises about 1% on the day near $3,110. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
10:29 China’s Commerce and Foreign Ministry: Will take further measures to oppose US bullying
A joint statement is out from the Chinese Commerce Ministry and Foreign Ministry, noting that they “will take further measures to oppose US bullying.”
A joint statement is out from the Chinese Commerce Ministry and Foreign Ministry, noting that they “will take further measures to oppose US bullying.”Further quotesReaffirm to continue taking resolute countermeasures to safeguard its interests.There is no winner in a trade war.If US insists on its own way, China will follow until the end.China doesn't want to fight a tariffs/trade war, but will not be fearful of one.China will not sit back and let its rights and interests be deprived.
10:25 China’s Commerce Ministry says its position on trade is clear and consistent
China’s Commerce Ministry said in a statement on Thursday that “the position on trade is clear and consistent.”
China’s Commerce Ministry said in a statement on Thursday that “the position on trade is clear and consistent.”Additional commentsThe door is open but dialogue must be on the basis of mutual respect, equality.Hopes that US will act in that spirit to cooperate.Pressure, threats and blackmail is not the right way to deal with China.We will unswervingly handle our own affairs well, hedge against uncertainty of external environment.Confident that foreign trade can deal with various risks and challenges.
10:12 US Dollar Index loses ground below 103.00, US CPI inflation data in focus
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day near 102.70, down 0.28% on the day.
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Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
10:10 AUD/JPY hovers around 91.00, eyes on renewed Australia-EU trade negotiations
The AUD/JPY pair recovered its daily losses and is trading above the 91.00 mark during Thursday’s Asian session. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is finding support amid optimism over renewed trade negotiations between Australia and the European Union (EU).
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) is finding support amid optimism over renewed trade negotiations between Australia and the European Union (EU).In a one-hour video call on Wednesday evening, EU officials agreed to revive the stalled trade talks with Australia. EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic proposed setting a fresh timeline for discussions with Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell. The previous round of negotiations collapsed two years ago over disagreements on agricultural market access for the EU’s 450 million consumers.However, the AUD faced headwinds amid escalating trade tensions between the US and China. US President Donald Trump announced an immediate tariff hike on Chinese imports to 125%, following China’s retaliatory increase to 84% on US goods. The renewed trade conflict clouds the outlook for the commodity-linked AUD, given Australia’s strong trade ties with China.The upside in AUD/JPY cross could be limited as the Japanese Yen (JPY) maintains a bullish tone. This is supported by market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates, following stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data.Japan's PPI climbed 0.4% in March and surged 4.2% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations. The stronger-than-anticipated data may feed into higher consumer prices, reinforcing the case for further policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and lending support to the Japanese Yen. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
10:01 Austria Industrial Production (YoY) up to 1.8% in January from previous 0.5%
Austria Industrial Production (YoY) up to 1.8% in January from previous 0.5%
09:49 EC President von der Leyen: EU remains committed to constructive talks with US on tariffs
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Thursday, noting that “the European Union (EU) remains committed to constructive talks with US on tariffs.”
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Thursday, noting that “the European Union (EU) remains committed to constructive talks with US on tariffs.”Additional quotesTrump's latest decision marks important step to stabilising global economy.Clear, predictable conditions are essential for trade to function.EU sticking to its goal of achieving frictionless and mutually beneificial trade.Have consistently advocated for a zero-for-zero tariffs agreement with the US.Market reactionThe Euro (EUR) fails to react to these headlines, as EUR/USD adds 0.26% on the day to trade near 1.0975 as of writing.
09:26 USD/CHF softens below 0.8550 as traders brace for US CPI release
The USD/CHF pair loses ground to near 0.8530 during the early European session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) amid the escalating trade tension between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies.
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Renewed US-China trade tensions boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Swiss Franc. Investors await the US March CPI inflation report, which is due later on Thursday. The USD/CHF pair loses ground to near 0.8530 during the early European session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) amid the escalating trade tension between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on many new tariffs on trading partners to 10% to allow trade negotiations with those countries. However, US-China trade relations have reached a crisis level, with Trump raising tariffs to 125% on Chinese imports on Thursday, up from the 104% implemented just a day earlier. Escalating trade war between the world’s top two economies could slow their growth down, or even push them into recession. This, in turn, might harm other countries' economies in the form of slower global growth. The economic uncertainty and fears of potential global recession boost the safe-haven demand, benefiting the CHF. The US March Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report will be closely monitored later on Thursday. The headline CPI is expected to show an increase of 2.6% YoY in March, while the core CPI is estimated to show a rise of 3.0% during the same reported period. If the report shows a hotter than expected outcome, this could lift the Greenback in the near term. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
09:06 ECB’s Villeroy: Trump's tariff pause decision is less bad news
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bank of France head Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday that US President Donald “Trump's tariff pause decision is less bad news but still bad news elements out there in America.”
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bank of France head Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday that US President Donald “Trump's tariff pause decision is less bad news but still bad news elements out there in America.”Additional commentsProtectionism remains a bad element for the American economy.There is room for talks in the coming 3 months over the Trump tariffs situation.Good that Europe has kept its cool during talks with the trump administration over tariffs.Trump policies in recent weeks have eroded confidence in the US Dollar.Reaffirms that he does not expect a French economic recession.Market reactionAt the press time, EUR/USD is 0.30% higher on the day at 1.0980.
09:01 Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) climbed from previous -7.6% to 0.4% in February
Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) climbed from previous -7.6% to 0.4% in February
09:00 Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY) increased to -0.7% in February from previous -2.1%
Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY) increased to -0.7% in February from previous -2.1%
09:00 Sweden New Orders Manufacturing (YoY) dipped from previous 16.7% to 2.5% in February
Sweden New Orders Manufacturing (YoY) dipped from previous 16.7% to 2.5% in February
08:25 India Gold price today: Gold extends recovery as US-China trade war deepens
Deepening US-China trade war continues to bolster the haven demand for Gold price in India on Thursday, even though the global stocks rebound on US President Donald Trump's "90-day pause" on reciprocal tariffs for all other countries.
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Deepening US-China trade war continues to bolster the haven demand for Gold price in India on Thursday, even though the global stocks rebound on US President Donald Trump's "90-day pause" on reciprocal tariffs for all other countries.
Gold price also shrugs off the ongoing Chinese disinflation amid the market's nervousness on US-Sino trade woes and ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release.
At the time of writing, Gold price changes hands at 8,668.09 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, advancing from Wednesday's close of INR 8,550.30, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
Gold price rose sharply to INR 101,094.90 per tola from INR 99,728.98 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,668.09 10 Grams 86,674.05 Tola 101,094.90 Troy Ounce 269,606.90
Global Market Movers: Gold price remains well supported by a further escalation of the US-China trade war In less than 24 hours after steep new tariffs kicked in on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump abruptly took a U-turn and announced a 90-day pause on hefty duties on most nations for 90 days. Trump, however, jacked up the tax rate on goods from China to 125% after the latter declared that it is putting an additional 50% tariff on US imports. Investors now seem worried that an all-out trade war between the world's two largest economies would stoke inflation and hinder global growth. This, in turn, assisted the safe-haven Gold price to rise more than 2% on Wednesday and post its best day since October 2023. The momentum seems unaffected by a sharp recovery in equity markets. Traders slashed their bets for more aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) after March FOMC meeting minutes revealed that officials unanimously agreed that the US economy was at risk of experiencing higher inflation. Adding to this, a slew of influential Fed policymakers called for a cautious approach to interest rate cuts. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that the bar for cutting rates remains high as tariffs can lead to inflation. Adding to this, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack noted that monetary policy is modestly restrictive right now, though he would prefer to wait than move in the wrong direction with interest rates. Separately, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin warned that tariff price hikes could begin by June and price surges require the US central bank to be cautious. Furthermore, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said that it is risky to assume the Fed can look through higher prices from tariffs, there is a chance some effects could persist. Traders were quick to react and are now pricing in the possibility that the Fed will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and deliver just 75 basis points of rate reductions over the course of the year. This, however, does little to assist the US Dollar to capitalize on the overnight bounce or attract any sellers around the non-yielding yellow metal. Investors now look forward to the release of the US consumer inflation figures, which will be followed by the US Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday, for fresh cues about the Fed's rate-cut path. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and providing a fresh directional impetus to the XAU/USD pair.
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
08:22 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Bullish outlook seems vulnerable around the 100-day EMA near 161.00
The EUR/JPY cross weakens to around 161.05 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts higher against the Euro (EUR) as the stronger-than-expected Japanese Producer Price Index (PPI) keeps the door open for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY softens to near 161.05 in Thursday’s early European session. Further consolidation for the cross cannot be ruled out with the neutral RSI indicator. The initial support level is located at 160.35; the first upside barrier emerges at 162.20.The EUR/JPY cross weakens to around 161.05 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts higher against the Euro (EUR) as the stronger-than-expected Japanese Producer Price Index (PPI) keeps the door open for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).Technically, the constructive outlook of EUR/JPY seems vulnerable as the cross hovers around the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The cross could resume its downside if it closes below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Further consolidation looks favorable, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) standing around the midline, displaying neutral momentum in the near term. The first downside target for EUR/JPY is located at 160.35, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. Sustained trading below the mentioned level could see a drop to the 160.00 psychological level. The additional downside filter to watch is 159.12, the low of March 6.On the other hand, the immediate resistance level for the cross emerges at 162.20, the high of April 9. Extended gains could see a rally to 163.40, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. The next hurdle is seen at 164.84, the high of December 27, 2024.EUR/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
08:00 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable; could test 200-day SMA near 1.4000 mark
The USD/CAD pair attracts some sellers following an Asian session uptick to levels just above the 1.4100 mark and drops to a fresh daily low in the last hour amid a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.4075-1.4070 area and seem vulnerable to weaken further.
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Spot prices currently trade around the 1.4075-1.4070 area and seem vulnerable to weaken further.The optimism led by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs remains supportive of a strong recovery in the global risk sentiment. This, along with bets for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025, keeps the USD bulls on the defensive. Meanwhile, Crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from a four-year low, which might cap gains for the commodity-linked Loonie and act as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, spot prices this week repeatedly failed to move back above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support breakpoint. The subsequent downfall and bearish oscillators on the daily chart validate the negative outlook for the USD/CAD pair. Hence, some follow-through weakness below the weekly trough around the 1.4060-1.4055 region and the 1.4030-1.4025 zone or the year-to-date low, towards the 200-day SMA near the 1.4000 psychological mark, looks like a distinct possibility. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and set the stage for an extension of the recent downward trajectory witnessed over the past two months or so. However, investors might refrain from placing aggressive bets and opt to wait for the release of the US consumer inflation figures, which might provide fresh cues about the Fed's rate-cut path and influence the USD price dynamics. In the meantime, momentum beyond the Asian session high, around the 1.4110 area, might still be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the 1.4175-1.4180 region. This is closely followed by the 1.4200 round figure, above which a fresh bout of a short-covering move could allow the USD/CAD pair to aim back towards challenging the 100-day SMA, pegged just ahead of the 1.4300 mark. A sustained strength beyond the said handle might shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
07:42 Gold price rallies further beyond $3,100, eyes all-time high amid US-China tariff war
Gold price (XAU/USD) builds on the previous day's strong move higher and gains some positive follow-through traction for the second consecutive day on Thursday.
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Bets for multiple Fed rate cuts weigh on the USD and also benefit the precious metal. A solid recovery in the risk sentiment fails to undermine the safe-haven XAU/USD pair.Gold price (XAU/USD) builds on the previous day's strong move higher and gains some positive follow-through traction for the second consecutive day on Thursday. Despite the optimism led by US President Donald Trump's decision to pause reciprocal tariffs on most nations, concerns about escalating US-China trade tensions continue to drive safe-haven flows toward the bullion. Apart from fears that tariffs would hinder economic growth, higher inflationary expectations turn out to be another factor that benefits the precious metal's status as a hedge against rising prices. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the weekly low as traders continue to price in multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025, lending additional support to the non-yielding Gold price. However, a positive turnaround in the global risk sentiment might hold back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the XAU/USD pair. Furthermore, elevated US Treasury bond yields might contribute to capping gains for the commodity as traders keenly await the release of the US consumer inflation figures later this Thursday.Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price remains well supported by a further escalation of the US-China trade warIn less than 24 hours after steep new tariffs kicked in on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump abruptly took a U-turn and announced a 90-day pause on hefty duties on most nations for 90 days. Trump, however, jacked up the tax rate on goods from China to 125% after the latter declared that it is putting an additional 50% tariff on US imports.Investors now seem worried that an all-out trade war between the world's two largest economies would stoke inflation and hinder global growth. This, in turn, assisted the safe-haven Gold price to rise more than 2% on Wednesday and post its best day since October 2023. The momentum seems unaffected by a sharp recovery in equity markets.Traders slashed their bets for more aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) after March FOMC meeting minutes revealed that officials unanimously agreed that the US economy was at risk of experiencing higher inflation. Adding to this, a slew of influential Fed policymakers called for a cautious approach to interest rate cuts.Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that the bar for cutting rates remains high as tariffs can lead to inflation. Adding to this, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack noted that monetary policy is modestly restrictive right now, though he would prefer to wait than move in the wrong direction with interest rates.Separately, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin warned that tariff price hikes could begin by June and price surges require the US central bank to be cautious. Furthermore, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said that it is risky to assume the Fed can look through higher prices from tariffs, there is a chance some effects could persist.Traders were quick to react and are now pricing in the possibility that the Fed will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and deliver just 75 basis points of rate reductions over the course of the year. This, however, does little to assist the US Dollar to capitalize on the overnight bounce or attract any sellers around the non-yielding yellow metal. Investors now look forward to the release of the US consumer inflation figures, which will be followed by the US Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday, for fresh cues about the Fed's rate-cut path. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and providing a fresh directional impetus to the XAU/USD pair. Gold price might now aim towards retesting the all-time peak, around $3,167-3,168 amid bullish technical setupFrom a technical perspective, the commodity showed some resilience below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) earlier this week and the subsequent move higher favors bullish traders. Moreover, positive oscillators on the daily chart support prospects for a further appreciating move for the Gold price. Hence, some follow-through strength towards retesting the all-time peak, around the $3,167-3,168 region touched earlier this month, looks like a distinct possibility.On the flip side, weakness back below the $3,100 mark might now find decent support near the $3,065-3,060 region. The said area should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively could make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the fall back towards the $3,000 psychological mark. The latter now coincides with the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, which should act as a key pivotal point and if broken decisively, might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
07:35 EUR/USD holds positive ground above 1.0950 ahead of US CPI release
The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers to around 1.0980 during the Asian session on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the Greenback as German conservative leader agreed on a coalition deal with the center-left Social Democrats on Wednesday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD gains traction to near 1.0980 in Thursday’s Asian session. Germany's Merz unveils coalition deal to boost growth and tackle migration. Trump announced a 90-day pause on many new tariffs on trading partners.The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers to around 1.0980 during the Asian session on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the Greenback as German conservative leader agreed on a coalition deal with the center-left Social Democrats on Wednesday. The US March Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report will be the highlight later on Thursday.On Wednesday, German conservatives under Friedrich Merz clinched a coalition deal with the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) to boost growth in Europe's biggest economy amid a global trade war that threatens recession. This development is likely to lift the shared currency against the US Dollar (USD) in the near term. The improved sentiment after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on many new tariffs on trading partners also provides some support to the EUR. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he authorized a 90-day pause on new tariffs for most US trade partners to 10% to allow trade negotiations with those countries.However, the rising bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would deliver more interest rate reductions this year could drag the USD lower. Traders are now pricing in only a 40% possibility of a Fed rate cut in next month’s meeting, despite the recent market volatility, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
07:32 GBP/USD falls to near 1.2850 following renewed US-China trade tension
The GBP/USD pair snapped its two-day winning streak, retreating to around 1.2850 during Asian trading hours on Thursday. The British Pound (GBP) came under pressure following the release of weaker-than-expected data from the RICS Housing Price Balance, which showed just a 2% increase in March.
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Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
07:30 Netherlands, The Manufacturing Output (MoM) rose from previous 1% to 1.2% in February
Netherlands, The Manufacturing Output (MoM) rose from previous 1% to 1.2% in February
06:30 Chinese sellers on Amazon to hike prices or exit the US on Trump’s tariff blow - Association head
Wang Xin, the head of the Shenzhen Cross-Border E-Commerce Association, which represents more than 3,000 Amazon sellers, told Reuters on Thursday that Chinese companies that sell products on Amazon are considering hiking prices for the United States (US) or looking to find new markets due to a big b
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Wang Xin, the head of the Shenzhen Cross-Border E-Commerce Association, which represents more than 3,000 Amazon sellers, told Reuters on Thursday that Chinese companies that sell products on Amazon are considering hiking prices for the United States (US) or looking to find new markets due to a big blow from US President Donald Trump's tariffs.Key quotesTariffs make it very hard to survive in the US market.Some sellers still proceeding to ship the goods to the US, others trying to find new markets.US tariffs will lead to 'collapse' of more small and medium-sized businesses, rapidly accelerate China's unemployment rate.US tariffs are truly an 'unprecedented blow'.Market reactionThe Chinese proxy, the Australian Dollar (AUD), shrugs off these headlines as the AUD/USD pair advances 0.24% on the day to 0.6170 at the press time. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
06:18 NZ FinMin Willis: RBNZ has ample room to lower interest rates if needed
New Zealand (NZ) Finance Minister Nicola Willis said on Thursday that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has ample room to lower interest rates if needed.
New Zealand (NZ) Finance Minister Nicola Willis said on Thursday that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has ample room to lower interest rates if needed.more to come ....
06:02 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds gains above $31.00 due to renewed safe-haven demand
Silver price (XAG/USD) continues to climb for the second straight day, trading near $31.10 per troy ounce during Thursday’s Asian session. The grey metal surged nearly 4% in the previous session, fueled by renewed safe-haven demand following escalating US-China trade tensions.
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The grey metal surged nearly 4% in the previous session, fueled by renewed safe-haven demand following escalating US-China trade tensions.US President Donald Trump announced an immediate hike in tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, shortly after China raised reciprocal duties on US goods to 84%. This tit-for-tat escalation overshadowed a broader trade de-escalation effort, where the US had temporarily lowered tariffs to 10% for 90 days to facilitate negotiations with other countries.Meanwhile, markets are digesting the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which suggested near-unanimous concern among policymakers over the dual threat of rising inflation and slowing growth—highlighting potential “difficult tradeoffs” for the Fed.The non-yielding Silver metal may attract fresh buying interest following the release of China’sthat Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which reinforces dovish expectations for the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) policy outlook. China’s CPI fell 0.1% year-over-year in March, missing forecasts of a 0.1% rise and following a 0.7% drop in February. On a monthly basis, CPI declined 0.4%, steeper than both February’s 0.2% decrease and market expectations. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) slipped 2.5% year-over-year, exceeding the previous 2.2% drop and the projected 2.3% decline, signaling continued deflationary pressures in the economy.Despite intensifying trade frictions, Fed officials emphasized a data-dependent approach to policy. The CME FedWatch tool shows that markets are currently pricing in a 40% chance of a rate cut at next month’s meeting. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming US CPI and PPI data on Friday for further clarity on the Fed’s rate path. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
06:00 US CPI data expected to show inflation eased in March, supporting dovish Fed rate cut path
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to publish the high-impact Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for March on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.
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Core CPI inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, is expected to ease to 3% in the same period from a year earlier, compared to a 3.1% growth in the previous month.On a monthly basis, the CPI and the core CPI are projected to rise 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.Previewing the report, analysts at TD Securities noted: “We expect this week's CPI report to show that core inflation maintained a still firm 0.26% m/m pace in March following the cooler than expected expansion in the last report. In the details, we look for goods inflation to cool down after two consecutive firm increases while services prices likely gained some momentum.”“In terms of the headline, we project CPI inflation to ease again to a mild 0.07% m/m in March, led by a considerable contraction in the energy component. We also expect food inflation to lose additional momentum, printing flat m/m,” TD Securities analysts added. Related news US Dollar drops while President Trump says markets to be cool The risk of higher US inflation has also clearly increased Fed’s Kashkari: No monetary policy response should be off the table
How could the US Consumer Price Index report affect EUR/USD?Markets are growing increasingly concerned over the US economy tipping into recession due to expectations of the global trade conflict triggered by US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs weighing heavily on economic activity. In turn, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is now projected to take a dovish turn. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 37% probability of the Fed lowering the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) at the May policy meeting, up from 10% on April 1. Fed policymakers, however, put more emphasis on the potential impact of tariffs on inflation rather than the growth outlook in their recent speeches. "The Fed's obligation is to make certain that a one-time increase in price levels doesn't become an ongoing inflation problem,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said. Similarly, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that she is concerned that inflation may pick back up from tariffs, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that there is anxiety among businesses that high inflation will return.The market positioning suggests that the USD is facing a two-way risk heading into the inflation data release. A stronger-than-expected annual headline CPI print could feed into expectations for a Fed policy hold in May and boost the USD with the immediate reaction. On the other hand, a reading at or below 2.5% in this data could weigh on the USD and help EUR/USD continue to push higher.Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD and explains:“The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart holds above 60 and EUR/USD trades above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) after testing this level several times in the past week, reflecting a bullish bias in the near term.“On the upside, 1.1150 (static level) aligns as the next resistance before 1.1200 (static level) and 1.1275 (July 2023 high). Looking south, the first support could be spotted at 1.0880 (20-day SMA) ahead of 1.0800 (static level) and 1.0740 (200-day SMA). Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Apr 10, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 2.6% Previous: 2.8% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
05:38 WTI declines below $61.50 as trade war escalates
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $61.45 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The WTI price tumbles amid the escalating trade war between the US and China, and fears of a slowdown in economic growth and energy demand.
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The ongoing US-China trade war undermines the WTI price. Crude oil stockpiles in the US rose by 2.553 million barrels last week, according to the EIA.West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $61.45 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The WTI price tumbles amid the escalating trade war between the US and China, and fears of a slowdown in economic growth and energy demand.The renewed trade tensions raise serious questions about future oil demand, weighing on the black gold price. US President Donald Trump raised the tariff on Chinese imports to 125% on Wednesday, hours after China increased the duty on American goods to 84% on all US imports. “China’s aggressive retaliation diminishes the chances of a quick deal between the world’s two biggest economies, triggering mounting fears of economic recession across the globe,” Rystad Energy Vice President for oil markets, Ye Lin, told Reuters.The Energy Information Administration weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending April 4 rose by 2.553 million barrels, compared to a jump of 6.165 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would increase by 2.2 million barrels. On the other hand, the downside for the WTI might be capped due to the Keystone oil pipeline shutdown. The Keystone oil pipeline from Canada to the US remained shut on Wednesday following an oil spill near Fort Ransom, North Dakota, while plans to return it to service were being evaluated, its operator South Bow said. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
05:17 Japanese Yen strengthens in reaction to stronger PPI print from Japan
The Japanese Yen (JPY) regained positive traction during the Asian session on Thursday in reaction to the stronger-than-expected release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which keeps the door open for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
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Adding to this, the optimism that Japan might strike a trade deal with the US turns out to be another factor underpinning the JPY. This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick, drags the USD/JPY pair back below the 147.00 round-figure in the last hour.Meanwhile, hawkish BoJ expectations mark a big divergence in comparison to rising bets for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025. This, in turn, fails to assist the USD to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the weekly low and contributes to driving flows toward the lower-yielding JPY. However, a positive turnaround in the global risk sentiment, fueled by US President Donald Trump's announcement to pause reciprocal tariffs on most nations, might cap the safe-haven JPY.Japanese Yen draws support from hawkish BoJ expectations; lacks follow-through amid a turnaround in the risk sentimentThe Bank of Japan's preliminary report released earlier this Thursday showed that Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.4% in March and rose 4.2% compared to the same time period last year. The readings were higher than consensus estimates and could push up consumer prices, which, in turn, backs the case for further policy tightening by the BoJ and underpins the Japanese Yen. US President Donald Trump agreed to meet Japanese officials to initiate trade discussions after speaking to Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba earlier this week. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s subsequent comments, saying that Japan may be a priority in tariff negotiations, fueled hopes for a possible US-Japan trade deal and turned out to be another factor that underpins the JPY. The US Dollar rebounded against safe-haven currencies, including the JPY, on Wednesday after Trump declared an immediate 90-day pause on the big tariff increases for most countries. The announcement eased worries about the global economic impact of US trade policies, triggering a sharp rally in equity markets. The S&P 500 soared 9.5% and registered its biggest daily gain since 2008. Meanwhile, the minutes of the March 18-19 FOMC meeting revealed that officials almost unanimously agreed that the US economy was at risk of experiencing higher inflation and slower growth on the back of Trump's trade tariffs. Policymakers, however, called for a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, forcing investors to trim their bets for more aggressive easing by the Fed.Traders now expect the Fed to wait until June to resume its rate-cutting cycle and are pricing in just 75 basis points of rate reductions by the year-end. The USD bulls, however, seem reluctant and opt to wait for the release of the US inflation figures – the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday and Friday, respectively – before positioning for further gains. USD/JPY seems vulnerable to sliding further; repeated failures to find acceptance above 148.00 favor bearish tradersFrom a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair has been struggling to find acceptance above the 148.00 round figure since the beginning of this week. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, favors bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside. Hence, a subsequent slide towards the 146.30 intermediate support, en route to the 146.00 mark, looks like a distinct possibility. Some follow-through selling would expose the next relevant support near the 145.50 region before the pair eventually drops to the 145.00 psychological mark.On the flip side, the 147.75 zone, followed by the 148.00 mark, could act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 148.25-148.30 region, or the weekly high touched on Wednesday. A sustained strength beyond the latter would set the stage for an extension of the previous day's goodish rebound from sub-144.00 levels, or the lowest since October 2024, and allow the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 149.00 round figure. The momentum could extend further towards the 149.35-149.40 area en route to the 150.00 psychological mark. Economic Indicator Producer Price Index (YoY) The Producer Price Index released by the Bank of Japan is a measure of prices for goods purchased by domestic corporates in Japan. The PPI is correlated with the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and is a way to measure changes in manufacturing cost and inflation in Japan. A high reading is seen as anticipatory of a rate hike and is positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish). Read more. Last release: Wed Apr 09, 2025 23:50 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 4.2% Consensus: 3.9% Previous: 4% Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
04:55 Australian Dollar remains subdued following China’s CPI data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edged lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, retracing some of its over 3% gain from the previous session.
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.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar depreciated after Trump intensified trade tensions with China by raising tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%.China’s Consumer Price Index declined 0.1% YoY in March, following a 0.7% drop in February.President Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs for most US trade partners, reducing them to 10%.The Australian Dollar (AUD) edged lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, retracing some of its over 3% gain from the previous session. The AUD/USD pair weakened after US President Donald Trump escalated trade tensions with China by raising tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, prompting concern due to Australia’s close trade ties with China.China is increasing tariffs on all US imports to 84% and added six American firms—such as defense and aerospace companies Shield AI and Sierra Nevada—to its trade blacklist. It also imposed export controls on a dozen US companies, including American Photonics and BRINC Drones.China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% year-over-year in March, following a 0.7% decline in February and missing the forecasted 0.1% rise. Monthly CPI inflation depreciated by 0.4%, worse than February’s 0.2% decline and market expectations. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 2.5% annually in March, deeper than the 2.2% fall in February and the projected 2.3% decline.Australia’s economic outlook remains fragile, with business and consumer confidence lagging. The weak data has strengthened expectations of a more dovish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), with markets now pricing in up to 100 basis points in rate cuts this year—beginning in May, with further reductions expected in July and August.Australian Dollar struggles to sustain gains amid trade uncertaintiesThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, is trading lower near 102.70 at the time of writing. Attention now turns to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, due later on Thursday.On Wednesday, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs for most US trade partners, lowering them to 10% to allow room for ongoing negotiations. “The 90-day pause is an encouraging sign that negotiations with most countries have been productive,” said Mark Hackett of Nationwide. “It also injects some much-needed stability into a market rattled by uncertainty.”The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes suggested that policymakers nearly unanimously agree that the US economy faces the dual risk of rising inflation and slowing growth, warning of “difficult tradeoffs” ahead for the Federal Reserve.Fed officials continue to downplay the immediate impact of escalating trade tensions, maintaining that policy decisions will remain data-driven. Market participants are now pricing in just a 40% chance of a rate cut at next month’s Fed meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Adding to the global trade landscape, The Wall Street Journal reported that China held discussions with European Union trade chief Maros Sefcovic, expressing its willingness to deepen trade, investment, and industrial cooperation with the EU.In Australia, consumer sentiment weakened notably, with the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index falling 6% in April after a 4% gain in March—the first decline since January.Australia’s business sentiment also softened as the NAB Business Confidence Index slipped to -3 in March from a revised -2, its lowest reading since November. Business conditions remained relatively steady but slightly below average, improving modestly from 3 to 4.Australian Dollar pulls back from nine-day EMA near 0.6150The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6120 on Thursday, with technical indicators on the daily chart pointing to a sustained bearish bias, as the pair has retreated from the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits below 50, suggesting the reinforcement of the bearish bias.Immediate support is seen at the 0.5914—marking the lowest level since March 2020, followed by the descending trendline at the 0.5900 level.On the upside, initial resistance lies at the nine-day EMA around 0.6143, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6260. A stronger recovery could be seen in the pair, testing the four-month high at 0.6408.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.26% 0.16% -0.60% 0.16% 0.44% 0.22% -0.50% EUR 0.26% 0.18% -0.35% 0.40% 0.67% 0.44% -0.27% GBP -0.16% -0.18% -0.51% 0.22% 0.48% 0.25% -0.56% JPY 0.60% 0.35% 0.51% 0.74% 1.03% 0.76% 0.21% CAD -0.16% -0.40% -0.22% -0.74% 0.27% 0.05% -0.78% AUD -0.44% -0.67% -0.48% -1.03% -0.27% -0.23% -1.03% NZD -0.22% -0.44% -0.25% -0.76% -0.05% 0.23% -0.81% CHF 0.50% 0.27% 0.56% -0.21% 0.78% 1.03% 0.81% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a monthly basis, measures changes in the price level of consumer goods and services purchased by residents. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Apr 10, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: -0.1% Consensus: 0.1% Previous: -0.7% Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
04:46 NZD/USD weakens below 0.5650 as China’s CPI falls in March
The NZD/USD pair softens to near 0.5630 during the early Asian section on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains weak against the Greenback after the release of China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Later on Thursday, the attention will shift to the US March CPI inflation data.
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China’s CPI inflation came in at -0.1% YoY in March vs. 0.1% expected. China’s tariff rate will jump to 125%, effective immediately, the White House said. The NZD/USD pair softens to near 0.5630 during the early Asian section on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains weak against the Greenback after the release of China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Later on Thursday, the attention will shift to the US March CPI inflation data. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed that the country’s CPI declined 0.1% YoY in March, compared to a fall of 0.7% in February. Markets estimated a 0.1% growth in the reported period. On a monthly basis, the CPI decreased 0.4% versus -0.2% prior, worse than the expected -0.2% figure. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.5% YoY in March, compared to the previous reading of a 2.2% decline. This reading was weaker than the estimation of -2.3%. The Kiwi posts modest losses in an immediate reaction to the Chinese economic data. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its April meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected. Analysts anticipate the RBNZ to deliver a deeper 50 bps cut, with markets factoring in the possibility of up to 100 bps in further easing by 2025.US President Donald Trump on Wednesday was implementing a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs above a 10% baseline on imported goods from trading partners other than China. Trump raised the tariffs imposed on imports from China to 125% “effective immediately” due to the “lack of respect that China has shown to the world’s markets.” This, in turn, exerts some selling pressure on the China-proxy Kiwi, as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
04:35 Breaking: China’s CPI inflation arrives at -0.1% YoY in March vs. 0.1% expected
China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped at an annual pace of 0.1% in March after declining 0.7% in February. Markets estimated a 0.1% growth in the reported period.
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China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped at an annual pace of 0.1% in March after declining 0.7% in February. Markets estimated a 0.1% growth in the reported period.Chinese CPI inflation came in at -0.4% month-over-month (MoM) in March versus February’s -0.2%, worse than the expected -0.2% figure.China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased 2.5% year-over-year (YoY) in March, following a 2.2% drop in February. The data came in below the market forecast of -2.3%. Market reaction to China’s inflation dataAt the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is down 0.54% on the day to trade at 0.6120, little affected by the Chinese disinflation. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
04:31 China Producer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (-2.3%) in March: Actual (-2.5%)
China Producer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (-2.3%) in March: Actual (-2.5%)
04:31 China Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.4% below forecasts (-0.2%) in March
China Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.4% below forecasts (-0.2%) in March
04:31 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (0.1%) in March: Actual (-0.1%)
China Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (0.1%) in March: Actual (-0.1%)
04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2092 vs. 7.2066 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.2092 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2066 and 7.3484 Reuters estimate.
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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.2092 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2066 and 7.3484 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
03:53 China prepares a trade war arsenal that takes aim at US companies - WSJ
The Wall Street Journal reported late Wednesday that China had talks with European Union (EU) trade chief Maros Sefcovic, adding that China is willing to deepen China-EU trade, investment and industrial cooperation.
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The Wall Street Journal reported late Wednesday that China had talks with European Union (EU) trade chief Maros Sefcovic, adding that China is willing to deepen China-EU trade, investment and industrial cooperation. Key quotesHad talks with EU trade chief Sefcovic.
China willing to deepen China-EU trade, investment and industrial cooperation.
China is willing to resolve differences through consultation and negotiation, but if the U.S. side is bent on having its own way, China will fight it to the end.
So-called ‘reciprocal tariffs’ of the United States are a serious infringement of the legitimate interests of all countries.Market reaction At the time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading 0.50% lower on the day to trade at 0.6126. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
China willing to deepen China-EU trade, investment and industrial cooperation.
China is willing to resolve differences through consultation and negotiation, but if the U.S. side is bent on having its own way, China will fight it to the end.
So-called ‘reciprocal tariffs’ of the United States are a serious infringement of the legitimate interests of all countries.Market reaction At the time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading 0.50% lower on the day to trade at 0.6126. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
03:15 USD/CAD strengthens above 1.4100 on tariff pause
The USD/CAD pair recovers some lost ground to near 1.4105 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) due to US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD rebounds to around 1.4105 in Thursday’s early Asian session.Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners.The US CPI inflation report for March will be in the spotlight later on Thursday. The USD/CAD pair recovers some lost ground to near 1.4105 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) due to US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report will take center stage later on Thursday. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he authorized a 90-day pause on new tariffs for most US trade partners to 10% to allow trade negotiations with those countries. “The 90-day pause is an encouraging sign that negotiations with most countries have been productive,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. “It also injects some much-needed stability into a market rattled by uncertainty. The Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continue to downplay the immediate impact of a potential trade war on the US economy, preferring to emphasize the data as a key policy driver. Traders are now pricing in only a 40% possibility of a Fed rate cut in next month’s meeting, despite the recent market volatility, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Traders will take more cues from the US CPI inflation report for March later on Thursday. The headline CPI is expected to show an increase of 2.6% YoY in March, while the core CPI is estimated to show a rise of 3.0% during the same period.Meanwhile, a recovery in Crude Oil prices could lift the commodity-linked Loonie. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
02:51 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks up to ¥1808.4B in April 4 from previous ¥-450.4B
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks up to ¥1808.4B in April 4 from previous ¥-450.4B
02:51 EUR/USD misses the boat on market-wide tariff relief rally
EUR/USD remains bogged down on the carts, caught in the much between 1.1000 and 1.0900 despite a broad-market recovery in investor risk appetite after the US once again pivoted away from its own tariff policies.
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Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:51 Japan Bank Lending (YoY) below forecasts (3.1%) in March: Actual (2.8%)
Japan Bank Lending (YoY) below forecasts (3.1%) in March: Actual (2.8%)
02:51 Japan Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 4.2%, above forecasts (3.9%) in March
Japan Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 4.2%, above forecasts (3.9%) in March
02:50 Japan Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above forecasts (0.2%) in March
Japan Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above forecasts (0.2%) in March
02:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks rose from previous ¥-450.4B to ¥1B in April 4
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks rose from previous ¥-450.4B to ¥1B in April 4
02:38 GBP/USD explores further upside as market sentiment rebounds after tariff delay
GBP/USD tested higher on Wednesday, climbing back over the 1.2800 handle after broad-market sentiment recovered across the board. The Trump administration has once again pivoted away from its own “no exceptions, no delays” tariff policy, and has again delayed tariffs, this time for 90 days.
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Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:17 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drifts higher above $3,050 amid escalating US-China trade tensions
The Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher to around $3,080 during the late American session on Wednesday. The safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions between the United States and China provides some support to the precious metal.
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Trump announced a stay on tariffs for all countries except China.Traders brace for the US CPI inflation data, which will be released later on Thursday. The Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher to around $3,080 during the late American session on Wednesday. The safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions between the United States and China provides some support to the precious metal. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he authorized a 90-day pause on new tariffs for most US trade partners to 10% to allow trade negotiations with those countries. However, Trump raised the tariffs imposed on imports from China to 125% “effective immediately” due to the “lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets.”The economic uncertainty and the fears that Trump’s tariff policies would trigger inflation and dampen economic growth boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. "Ultimately gold continues to be seen as a hedge against instability here. We got a situation where tariffs are becoming a big problem, and you have inflationary expectations going higher, and that's manifested by higher yields," said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.Traders will keep an eye on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, which is due later on Thursday. Any sign of a hotter-than-expected outcome, could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
02:01 United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance came in at 2%, below expectations (8%) in March
United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance came in at 2%, below expectations (8%) in March
01:50 Canada PM Carney: Pause on reciprocal tariffs welcome reprieve for the global economy
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said late Wednesday that a pause on reciprocal tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump is a welcome reprieve for the global economy.
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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said late Wednesday that a pause on reciprocal tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump is a welcome reprieve for the global economy. Trump signaled that the US will engage in bilateral negotiations that will likely result in a fundamental restructuring of the global trading system.On Wednesday, Trump dropped new tariff rates on imports from most US trade partners to 10% for 90 days to allow trade negotiations with those countries. Market reaction At the time of writing, the USD/CAD is trading 0.29% higher on the day to trade at 1.4283. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
01:03 Fed's Kashkari: Bar for cutting rates remains high
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari noted on Wednesday that increased market volatility at the hands of constantly-waffling US trade policy will continue to make it harder, not easier, for the Fed to engage in rate adjustments, especially as still-existing tariffs conti
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari noted on Wednesday that increased market volatility at the hands of constantly-waffling US trade policy will continue to make it harder, not easier, for the Fed to engage in rate adjustments, especially as still-existing tariffs continue to weigh on job creation and elevate inflation potential at the same time.Key highlightsDramatic change this afternoon.
Foresees reduced inflation impact if tariff pause continues.
Uncertainty may lead to economic decline.
Tariffs can lead to inflation, we'll need to monitor.
increasing
The bar for cutting rates remains high.
Already hearing firms are reducing their recruitment.
Tariffs can decrease job market while increasing inflation.
Federal Reserve prefers not to intervene in markets.
Foresees reduced inflation impact if tariff pause continues.
Uncertainty may lead to economic decline.
Tariffs can lead to inflation, we'll need to monitor.
increasing
The bar for cutting rates remains high.
Already hearing firms are reducing their recruitment.
Tariffs can decrease job market while increasing inflation.
Federal Reserve prefers not to intervene in markets.
00:59 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Cross jumps sharply but bearish signals persist
The AUD/JPY pair staged a sharp rebound on Wednesday’s session ahead of the Asian open, climbing toward the 91.00 area after rising more than 4% during the day.
AUD/JPY surged, seen trading near the 91.00 zone after a strong intraday rallyDespite the bullish move, key indicators still suggest an overall bearish technical backdropShort-term resistance is seen near 91.20 and 91.90, with support holding around 90.90 and 87.30The AUD/JPY pair staged a sharp rebound on Wednesday’s session ahead of the Asian open, climbing toward the 91.00 area after rising more than 4% during the day. Despite the aggressive intraday bounce, technical indicators and moving averages continue to flash bearish signals, hinting at lingering downside risk even as short-term momentum turns positive.The pair is currently trading near the upper boundary of the day’s range, which spanned from 86.05 to 91.27, suggesting strong bullish pressure. However, several technical readings temper the optimism. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 42.71, still within neutral territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) issues a sell signal. Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) at 29.69 and the Ultimate Oscillator at 48.82 both reflect neutral momentum.Moving averages reinforce the broader bearish narrative. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 93.11, 100-day SMA at 96.08, and 200-day SMA at 98.08 all slope downward. Additionally, the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 91.19 and the 10-day SMA at 91.89 are positioned above current price levels, acting as immediate resistance zones.
Daily chart
Daily chart
00:56 Fed's Hammack: I prefer to wait than move in the wrong direction with rates
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack joined the ever-growing chorus of Fed policymakers taking a hard cautious stance to interest rate forecasts, cautioning that uncertainty wrapped up in US trade policy will continue to make it difficult for the Fed to engage in market-smo
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack joined the ever-growing chorus of Fed policymakers taking a hard cautious stance to interest rate forecasts, cautioning that uncertainty wrapped up in US trade policy will continue to make it difficult for the Fed to engage in market-smoothing operations.Key highlightsThe desk stands ready to engage in money markets if needed.
We may move much more quickly when the Fed does adjust rates.
Monetary policy is modestly restrictive right now.
It is unclear that removing Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) constraint adds to risk capacity.
I think we've been seeing markets work themselves out.
I prefer to wait than move in the wrong direction with rates.
Markets are strained, but functioning.
We may move much more quickly when the Fed does adjust rates.
Monetary policy is modestly restrictive right now.
It is unclear that removing Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) constraint adds to risk capacity.
I think we've been seeing markets work themselves out.
I prefer to wait than move in the wrong direction with rates.
Markets are strained, but functioning.
00:23 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi rallies toward 0.5700 despite persistent bearish backdrop
The NZD/USD pair advanced firmly on Wednesday, rising sharply ahead of the Asian session and trading near the 0.5700 mark. The pair is testing the upper region of its daily range, reflecting a strong intraday bounce despite a broader backdrop that still leans bearish.
NZD/USD trades near the 0.5700 area following a strong upward move during Wednesday’s session.Despite the rally, overall indicators maintain a bearish tone as price nears short-term resistance.Key resistance levels emerge near the 0.5669 zone, with support holding around 0.5537.The NZD/USD pair advanced firmly on Wednesday, rising sharply ahead of the Asian session and trading near the 0.5700 mark. The pair is testing the upper region of its daily range, reflecting a strong intraday bounce despite a broader backdrop that still leans bearish. Technical indicators show mixed momentum, with near-term strength clashing against longer-term trend signals.Daily chart
From a momentum perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 46.72 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 12.28 — both neutral, but with the RSI recovering in negative area. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), however, is still producing a sell signal, suggesting the rally may face headwinds. Stochastic %K at 21.04 is also neutral, providing no clear short-term cue.The broader trend outlook remains bearish. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.57139, 100-day SMA at 0.57090, and 200-day SMA at 0.58963 are all trending lower, pointing to sustained downside pressure. Additionally, the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 10-day SMA at 0.56542 and 0.56697 respectively continue to reinforce this view.Looking at price levels, resistance is seen near 0.56542, followed by 0.5667 and 0.56692 — a cluster that could cap further upside in the near term. Support rests at 0.55375, offering a key floor should bearish pressure resume. Overall, while the pair has shown strength today, it remains technically vulnerable unless it can establish itself firmly above the moving average congestion zone.
From a momentum perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 46.72 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 12.28 — both neutral, but with the RSI recovering in negative area. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), however, is still producing a sell signal, suggesting the rally may face headwinds. Stochastic %K at 21.04 is also neutral, providing no clear short-term cue.The broader trend outlook remains bearish. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.57139, 100-day SMA at 0.57090, and 200-day SMA at 0.58963 are all trending lower, pointing to sustained downside pressure. Additionally, the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 10-day SMA at 0.56542 and 0.56697 respectively continue to reinforce this view.Looking at price levels, resistance is seen near 0.56542, followed by 0.5667 and 0.56692 — a cluster that could cap further upside in the near term. Support rests at 0.55375, offering a key floor should bearish pressure resume. Overall, while the pair has shown strength today, it remains technically vulnerable unless it can establish itself firmly above the moving average congestion zone.
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