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12:54 EUR/USD faces pressure as US Dollar ticks higher, US-UK trade deal in focus
EUR/USD ticks lower below 1.1300 during European trading hours on Thursday.

12:50 China keeps adding Gold to its reserves – ING
China expanded its Gold reserves for a sixth straight month in April, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

China expanded its Gold reserves for a sixth straight month in April, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.PBoC continues to rise its Gold reserves"Gold held by the People’s Bank of China rose by around 70,000 troy ounces (2 tonnes) last month, with the volumes climbing by close to 1 million ounces (31 tonnes) over the past six months. Overall, central banks reported 17 tonnes of net buying in March. The National Bank of Poland was the largest buyer – and the biggest in 2025 so far. It’s added 49 tonnes of Gold to its reserves, according to World Gold Council data.""The latest LME COT report released yesterday shows that speculators increased their net long position in copper by 10,003 lots to 74,809 lots for the week ending 2 May. Similarly, net bullish bets for aluminium rose by 9,688 lots to 89,101 lots. This follows eight consecutive weeks of declines."

12:48 AUD/USD: Likely to trade in a lower range of 0.6400/0.6470 – UOB Group
Rather than sustaining its downward momentum, Australian Dollar (AUD) is more likely to trade in a lower range of 0.6400/0.6470.

Rather than sustaining its downward momentum, Australian Dollar (AUD) is more likely to trade in a lower range of 0.6400/0.6470. In the longer run, AUD appears to have entered a consolidation phase and is likely to trade between 0.6370 and 0.6515, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. AUD appears to have entered a consolidation phase24-HOUR VIEW: "While we expected AUD to 'advance further' yesterday, we pointed out that 'the major resistance at 0.6550 is likely out of reach for now.' We indicated that 'to sustain the momentum, AUD must not break below 0.6460, with minor support at 0.6480.' We were incorrect as after rising to 0.6515, AUD reversed sharply and plummeted to 0.6422. The decline appears overextended, and rather than sustaining its downward momentum, AUD is more likely to trade in a lower range of 0.6400/0.6470. In other words, AUD is unlikely to break clearly below 0.6400." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Two days ago (06 May, spot at 0.6455), we highlighted that 'while further AUD strength is not ruled out, it must break and remain above 0.6510 before further sustained rise is likely.' Yesterday (07 May), when AUD was at 0.6500, we indicated that 'while we would have preferred a decisive break above 0.6510, the price action suggests that AUD could strengthen further to 0.6550.' Our view was invalidated quickly as AUD reversed sharply and plummeted below our ‘strong support’ level at 0.6425. AUD appears to have entered a consolidation phase, and for the time being, it is likely to trade between 0.6370 and 0.6515."

12:44 Choppy session for oil – ING
It was a choppy session for the oil market yesterday. Initially, Brent rallied amid growing hopes of de-escalation in trade tensions between China and the US, with talks set to start this weekend, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

It was a choppy session for the oil market yesterday. Initially, Brent rallied amid growing hopes of de-escalation in trade tensions between China and the US, with talks set to start this weekend, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Oil rallies, then retreats on Fed caution"However, the market came under pressure later in the day after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. The Fed signalled that rates will likely remain on hold until the effects of tariffs become clearer. This boosted the USD, which added to headwinds facing the broader commodity markets.""Weekly inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) was less bullish than American Petroleum Institute (API) numbers the previous day. EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 2.03m barrels over the last week vs. the 4.49m barrels decline reported by the API.""However, this still leaves crude oil inventories at their lowest level since March. Similarly, crude oil stocks at Cushing hit their lowest level since March, falling by 740k barrels. For refined products, gasoline inventories increased by a marginal 188k barrels, while distillate stocks fell by 1.12m barrels. On the demand side, the standout was jet fuel. Demand increased by 474k b/d week on week, hitting its highest level since December 2019. This keeps the 4-week average for demand at an all-time seasonal high."

12:38 USD: Dollar to take its cue from the US-UK trade deal – ING
Following a social media post from President Trump last night that a major trade deal would be announced at 16CET/10ET today, speculation is rife that it will be a US-UK agreement.

Following a social media post from President Trump last night that a major trade deal would be announced at 16CET/10ET today, speculation is rife that it will be a US-UK agreement. While US-UK trade relations are not usually a material driver of global financial markets, today's deal may have more impact than usual. In focus will primarily be whether the 10% baseline US tariffs in place under the current 'paused' conditions can be negotiated away, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.DXY can challenge the 100.35/50 resistance"The takeaway was the Fed acknowledging the stagflationary risks of higher inflation and higher unemployment. These could come through in the Fed's next set of economic projections released in June. After initially dropping last night, USD interest rates are heading higher this morning, though this could also be a function of better risk sentiment. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is on his way to Geneva to start trade talks with Chinese counterparts this weekend.""The US data calendar is light today. As usual, weekly jobless claims are in focus and are expected to correct a little lower from last week's jump to 241,000. Should claims stay high, the dollar could nudge lower on the view that business pessimism was finally revealing itself in the jobs market.""As above, the nature of the US-UK trade deal should be the biggest DXY driver today. A surprise removal of the 10% baseline tariff could see DXY challenge 100.35/50 resistance, where we would expect more selling to emerge. But we imagine quite a few protective buy stops are now being placed above 101.00 from the speculative community."

12:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

12:24 UK and US have reached a "heads of terms" trade agreement – Sky News
Citing confirmation from a British government source, Sky News reported on Thursday that the UK and the US have reached a "heads of terms" agreement and a "substantive" step towards a full trade deal.

Citing confirmation from a British government source, Sky News reported on Thursday that the UK and the US have reached a "heads of terms" agreement and a "substantive" step towards a full trade deal."I think it is politically helpful for Keir Starmer to have got the heads of terms, the kind of main points of a US-UK trade deal, nailed down before we see what we have negotiated with the EU - or, more importantly, Donald Trump sees what we have negotiated with the EU,” Sky News Deputy Political Editor, Sam Coates, said.

12:05 Spain 5-y Bond Auction: 2.375% vs previous 2.682%
Spain 5-y Bond Auction: 2.375% vs previous 2.682%

12:04 Spain 3-y Bond Auction down to 2.086% from previous 2.292%
Spain 3-y Bond Auction down to 2.086% from previous 2.292%

12:02 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Remains confined in a multi-week-old range; not out of the woods yet
The USD/CAD pair attracts buyers for the second successive day on Thursday and recovers further from the year-to-date (YTD) low, around the mid-1.3700s touched earlier this week.

USD/CAD recovers further from YTD low amid some follow-through USD buying.The Fed’s hawkish pause and trade-related optimism lend support to the buck.Rising Oil prices underpin the Loonie and cap the pair ahead of Trump’s presser.The USD/CAD pair attracts buyers for the second successive day on Thursday and recovers further from the year-to-date (YTD) low, around the mid-1.3700s touched earlier this week. The momentum lifts spot prices to the 1.3880-1.3885 region, or over a one-week high during the first half of the European session, and is sponsored by some follow-through US Dollar (USD) buying. In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, advances to the 100.00 psychological mark in the wake of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish pause on Wednesday. As was widely expected, the US central bank left the federal funds rate unchanged in a range between 4.25%-4.5%.In the accompanying policy statement, the Fed noted that the uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. Adding to this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the post-meeting press conference that near-term inflation expectations have moved up after tariffs and added that the right thing to do is wait for further clarity before adjusting the policy. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated a nearly 80% chance that the US central bank will maintain the status quo in June. This, in turn, is seen lending some support to the buck. The markets, however, are still pricing in a greater chance of at least three 25-basis-point (bps) Fed rate cuts by the end of this year. Moreover, investors remain worried about a recession on the back of US President Donald Trump's rapidly shifting stance on trade policies, which act as a headwind for the USD. In fact, Trump announced 100% tariffs on movies produced outside the US on Sunday and also indicated that he plans to impose fresh tariffs on pharmaceutical imports over the next two weeks. Adding to this, Trump on Wednesday said that he was not open to lowering the 145% tariffs imposed on China, tempering hopes for a quick resolution to the trade war between the world's two largest economies. Trump added that he is in no hurry to sign any deals, though he said to announce a major deal with a big, highly respected country later this Thursday. Trump's remarks, however, keep a lid on the optimism led by the announcement of US-China trade talks later this week and hold back the USD bulls from positioning for any further gains. Apart from this, a modest uptick in Crude Oil prices, following the overnight pullback from a one-week high, underpins the commodity-linked Loonie and contributes to capping the USD/CAD pair. Apart from this, expectations for a US-Canada trade deal could support the Canadian Dollar (CAD), warranting some caution before confirming that the currency pair has formed a near-term bottom and positioning for any further appreciating move. USD/CAD daily chartTechnical OutlookFrom a technical standpoint, the USD/CAD pair remains confined in a familiar range held over the past three weeks or so. This might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the recent sharp retracement slide from over a two-decade high touched in February. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart – though they have been recovering – are still holding in negative territory, suggesting that the move high could be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly. In the meantime, the top boundary of the short-term trading range, around the 1.3900 round-figure mark, is likely to act as an immediate strong barrier. However, a sustained strength beyond might trigger a short-covering move and lift the USD/CAD pair to the 1.3950-1.3955 region. The momentum could extend further, though it is more likely to remain capped near the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently pegged just above the 1.4000 psychological mark.On the flip side, the Asian session low, around the 1.3800 neighborhood, could offer some support ahead of the YTD through, around the 1.3750 area touched on Tuesday. Some follow-through selling below the latter will mark a fresh bearish breakdown and make the USD/CAD pair vulnerable to weakening further below the 1.3700 round figure, towards the next relevant support near the 1.3650-1.3645 region.

12:01 GBP/USD remains below 1.3335 – UOB Group
Provided Pound Sterling (GBP) remains below 1.3335 against US Dollar (USD), it could edge lower to 1.3265. In the longer run, the current price movements are part of a 1.3240/1.3450 range-trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Provided Pound Sterling (GBP) remains below 1.3335 against US Dollar (USD), it could edge lower to 1.3265. In the longer run, the current price movements are part of a 1.3240/1.3450 range-trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Price movements are part of a 1.3240/1.3450 range-trading phase24-HOUR VIEW: "Two days ago, GBP soared to 1.3402 and then pulled back sharply. Yesterday, when GBP was at 1.3350, we indicated that 'the pullback from the high amid overbought conditions suggests GBP is likely to trade in a range today, expected to be between 1.3300 and 1.3400.' Instead of trading in a 1.3300/1.3400 range, GBP dropped to a low of 1.3281, closing on a soft note at 1.3290 (-0.60%). There has been a slight increase in downward momentum, but it is not sufficient to suggest a sustained decline. Today, provided that GBP remains below 1.3335 (minor resistance is at 1.3320), it could edge lower to 1.3265. A dip below this level is not ruled out, but based on the current momentum, any further decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 1.3240." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We indicated yesterday (07 May, spot at 1.3350) that 'The current price movements as part of a 1.3240/1.3450 range-trading phase.' There is no change in our view. That said, the slight increase in short-term downward momentum indicates the increasing risk of GBP breaking below 1.3240."

11:59 UK PM Starmer: You will hear more from me later today on US economic deal
UK Prime Minister (PM) Keir Starmer said on Thursday, “you will hear more from me later today on the US economic deal.”

11:55 AUD/JPY rises toward 93.00, rebounds due to easing safe-haven demand
AUD/JPY snaps a three-day losing streak and trades around 92.90 during European hours on Thursday, buoyed by waning demand for safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen (JPY).

11:55 GBP: We're not as dovish as some on the BoE – ING
Today's Bank of England meeting should be a market mover, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Today's Bank of England meeting should be a market mover, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. GBP/USD can get distorted by global risk sentiment today"While a 25bp rate cut to 4.25% is widely expected, what is probably the single most important area today is what the BoE does with this following sentence: 'Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate'." "Those more dovish in the market are looking for this 'gradual and careful' phrase to be dropped/amended to signal a sharper set of BoE rate cuts. BoE is ready to drop that phrase just yet. Given that the market is now pricing four 25bp rate cuts this year and we expect three (May, August, November), if BoE easing remains 'gradual and careful', sterling could rally." "For reference, the FX options market prices an 80 USD pip break-even range for GBP/USD over the next day. And for EUR/GBP, that break-even is 39 GBP pips. GBP/USD could get distorted by global risk sentiment today, but we would say a less dovish than expected BoE today could drive EUR/GBP to the 0.8435/40 area."

11:49 EUR/USD is tilted to the downside – UOB Group
Bias for Euro (EUR) is tilted to the downside vs US Dollar (USD); any decline is likely limited to a test of 1.1280. In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase between 1.1225 and 1.1410, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Bias for Euro (EUR) is tilted to the downside vs US Dollar (USD); any decline is likely limited to a test of 1.1280. In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase between 1.1225 and 1.1410, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Any decline is likely limited to a test of 1.128024-HOUR VIEW: "EUR traded between 1.1278 and 1.1381 two days ago. Yesterday, we pointed out that 'The price action did not result in any increase in either downward or upward momentum.' We expected EUR to 'trade in a range between 1.1290 and 1.1390.' EUR subsequently rose to 1.1378 before dropping sharply to a low of 1.1291 in the late NY session. While there has been an increase in downward momentum, it is not sufficient to suggest a sustained decline. Today, the bias for EUR is tilted to the downside. As momentum is not strong, any decline is likely limited to a test of 1.1280. The major support at 1.1225 is not expected to come into view. Resistance is at 1.1335; a breach of 1.1360 would suggest the current downward bias has faded." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We continue to hold the same view as Monday (06 May, spot at 1.1310). As highlighted, we view the current price movements as part of a consolidation phase and expect EUR to trade between 1.1225 and 1.1410 for now."

11:46 EUR: Are long positions getting stale? – ING
EUR/USD has drifted lower to test support at 1.1300 today, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EUR/USD has drifted lower to test support at 1.1300 today, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.A move under 1.1250/1260 today can do some damage"Recently, we have been saying that the dollar bounce has been lacklustre, but positioning probably means that a move under 1.1250/1260 today could do some damage. Let's see what the US-UK trade deal has to offer.""We've called the report 'Unipolar disorder' to reflect the potentially disorderly transition away from a dollar-centric financial system. The report also includes a longer-term look at EUR/USD and serves as a reminder that the euro requires some major reversal in terms of trade or some huge boost in eurozone productivity if much higher EUR/USD levels are to be achieved."

11:23 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Remains below nine-day EMA near 0.5950 psychological resistance
The NZD/USD pair extends losses for the second successive session, trading around 0.5930 during European hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a weakening bullish bias, as the pair trades further below the ascending channel pattern.

11:19 Gold price tumbles for second straight day ahead of trade deal announcement
Gold (XAU/USD) extends the prior’s day correction and drops nearly 1% to $3,333 at the time of writing on Thursday as risk sentiment improves, with United States (US) President Donald Trump expected to announce a trade deal agreement with the United Kingdom (UK) at a news conference at 14:00 GMT in

10:54 Pound Sterling trades with caution ahead of BoE policy decision
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades cautiously against its peers in Thursday’s European session ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision at around 11:00 GMT.

10:49 EUR/GBP remains subdued around 0.8500 due to US-UK trade deal hopes, BoE decision in focus
EUR/GBP is extending losses for the fourth consecutive session, trading near 0.8500 in early European hours on Thursday.

10:30 Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (2.25%)
Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (2.25%)

10:25 Forex Today: US Dollar rebounds after Fed, attention turns to BoE
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, May 8:

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The Bank of England (BoE) will announce the interest rate decision later in the day and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will hold a press conference. The US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs data for the first quarter. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.55% -0.10% -0.16% 0.58% 0.79% 0.50% 0.30% EUR -0.55% -0.37% -0.42% 0.30% 0.51% 0.23% 0.02% GBP 0.10% 0.37% -0.31% 0.68% 0.89% 0.60% 0.39% JPY 0.16% 0.42% 0.31% 0.73% 0.96% 0.74% 0.56% CAD -0.58% -0.30% -0.68% -0.73% -0.08% -0.07% -0.29% AUD -0.79% -0.51% -0.89% -0.96% 0.08% -0.28% -0.49% NZD -0.50% -0.23% -0.60% -0.74% 0.07% 0.28% -0.22% CHF -0.30% -0.02% -0.39% -0.56% 0.29% 0.49% 0.22% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The Fed announced on Wednesday that it left the policy rate, federal funds rate, unchanged at the range of 4.25%-4.5% following the May meeting. This decision came in line with the market expectation. In the policy statement, the US central bank noted that the economic outlook uncertainty has increased further. While speaking during the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that near-term inflation expectations have moved up because of tariffs and added that it's time for them to wait before adjusting the policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in June dropped to 20% from about 30% before the Fed event. In turn, the USD Index closed in positive territory and snapped a three-day losing streak. Early Thursday, the USD Index gains more than 0.2% on the day above 100.00. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said that there will be a "big news conference" at 1400 GMT on Thursday, concerning a major trade deal with representatives of a "big and highly respected country." The Wall Street Journal and the New York Times both reported that the announcement will likely be about a trade deal with the UK. Additionally, an official at the UK government confirmed early Thursday that US President Donald Trump is expected to announce an outline of the US-UK trade agreement.The BoE is widely expected to lower the policy by 25 bps to 4.25% from 4.5%. GBP/USD lost more than 0.5% on Wednesday and erased the majority of its weekly gains. Early Thursday, the pair trades marginally lower on the day below 1.3300.After falling about 0.6% on Wednesday, EUR/USD continues to stretch lower and trades in negative territory below 1.1300 in the European morning on Thursday. The data from Germany showed that Industrial Production expanded by 3% on a monthly basis in March. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 0.8% but failed to help the Euro gather strength.The minutes of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) March policy meeting showed that members agreed the BoJ would continue to raise rates if its economic and price outlooks were to be realized. USD/JPY extends its rebound after rising about 1% on Wednesday and trades near 144.50 to begin the European session.Gold stays under bearish pressure and loses more than 1% on the day below $3,350 early Thursday after falling nearly 2% on Wednesday. BoE FAQs What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound? The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP). How does the Bank of England’s monetary policy influence Sterling? When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Pound? In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Pound Sterling? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.

10:08 US Dollar Index advances to near 100.00 due to Fed caution, Initial Jobless Claims eyed
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is extending gains for a second straight session, hovering near 100.00 at the time of writing. The DXY may continue to gain ground amid the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious policy stance.

10:04 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates mixed at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade mixed at the start of Thursday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 95.74, with the EUR/INR pair declining from its previous close at 95.75.

10:00 Austria Trade Balance fell from previous €309.6M to €44.9M in February
Austria Trade Balance fell from previous €309.6M to €44.9M in February

10:00 Spain Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY) up to 1% in March from previous -1.9%
Spain Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY) up to 1% in March from previous -1.9%

09:42 Palladium price today: Rare metals down at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $963.90 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $965.90.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $963.90 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $965.90.In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $978.70 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, also under pressure after the XPT/USD pair settled at $979.20 at the previous close.

09:28 UK Official confirms Trump expected to announce US deal outline
An official at the UK government confirmed on Thursday that US President Donald Trump is expected to announce an outline of the US-UK trade deal.

An official at the UK government confirmed on Thursday that US President Donald Trump is expected to announce an outline of the US-UK trade deal.The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and the New York Times (NYT) reported earlier in the Asian session that Trump will likely announce a framework for a trade deal with the UK deal.

09:15 German Industrial Production jumps 3% MoM in March vs. 0.8% expected
Germany’s industrial sector activity increased more than expected in March, according to the latest data published by Destatis on Thursday.

09:04 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $58.35 per barrel, up from Wednesday’s close at $57.68.

09:01 Germany Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) climbed from previous -4% to -0.2% in March
Germany Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) climbed from previous -4% to -0.2% in March

09:01 South Africa Net $Gold & Forex Reserve up to $64.318B in April from previous $63.167B
South Africa Net $Gold & Forex Reserve up to $64.318B in April from previous $63.167B

09:01 South Africa Gross $Gold & Forex Reserve climbed from previous $67.45B to $67.585B in April
South Africa Gross $Gold & Forex Reserve climbed from previous $67.45B to $67.585B in April

09:01 Germany Trade Balance s.a. registered at €21.1B above expectations (€19.1B) in March
Germany Trade Balance s.a. registered at €21.1B above expectations (€19.1B) in March

09:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) registered at 3% above expectations (0.8%) in February
Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) registered at 3% above expectations (0.8%) in February

09:00 United Kingdom Halifax House Prices (MoM) came in at 0.3%, above forecasts (-0.1%) in April
United Kingdom Halifax House Prices (MoM) came in at 0.3%, above forecasts (-0.1%) in April

09:00 Germany Imports (MoM) came in at -1.4% below forecasts (0.4%) in March
Germany Imports (MoM) came in at -1.4% below forecasts (0.4%) in March

09:00 Germany Exports (MoM) above forecasts (1%) in March: Actual (1.1%)
Germany Exports (MoM) above forecasts (1%) in March: Actual (1.1%)

09:00 BoE expected to cut interest rate to 4.25% despite inflation remaining above objective
The Bank of England (BoE) will announce its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday in what marks its third rate-setting meeting of 2025.

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.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Bank of England is expected to lower its policy rate to 4.25%.UK inflation figures remain well above the BoE’s goal.GBP/USD receded from recent peaks, hovering around the 1.3300 zone.The Bank of England (BoE) will announce its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday in what marks its third rate-setting meeting of 2025.Markets widely expect the central bank to reduce its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% after staying on the sidelines at its March 20 gathering.The Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) decision will be accompanied by meeting Minutes and the Monetary Policy Report (MPR), offering a window into the internal debate, while Governor Andrew Bailey will address reporters in a post-decision press conference. His remarks will be scrutinised for any shift in tone, particularly around inflation risks, the potential of tariffs, and the likely timing of future rate reductions.With the rate move largely priced in, the focus now shifts to the Bank’s forward guidance and its updated economic outlook — key signals that could shape expectations for the next few months.UK economic outlook: Sticky inflation, tariffs, subdued growthThe Bank of England held interest rates steady in March, as widely expected, with eight members of the Monetary Policy Committee voting to maintain the benchmark rate. Swati Dhingra was the lone dissenter, backing a 25-basis-point cut in a nod to building disinflationary pressure.The decision came alongside fresh inflation data that surprised to the downside. Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed annual headline CPI eased to 2.6% in March, down from 2.8% the previous month. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also declined, falling to 3.4% — a further signal that underlying price pressure is gradually retreating.Markets responded by firming up their bets on rate cuts. Interest rate futures now fully price in 100 basis points of easing by year-end, equivalent to four quarter-point reductions, up slightly from 94 basis points last week.BoE officials have increasingly pointed to external risks as a factor in their outlook. Some policymakers noted that recent tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump could ultimately have a disinflationary effect on the UK. Governor Andrew Bailey, speaking during the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings, warned that rising trade tensions could weigh on global growth.The IMF echoed those concerns as it cut its 2025 growth forecast for the UK to 1.1%, down from 1.6%, reinforcing the case for a more dovish stance from the central bank in the months ahead.That said, traders will be watching Bailey’s press conference for any signals on whether the BoE is preparing to accelerate its rate-cutting cycle in the face of softening inflation and global uncertainty.How will the BoE interest rate decision impact GBP/USD?Investors are bracing for the BOE to lower its benchmark rate to 4.25% on Thursday at 11:00 GMT.While the decision itself is largely priced in, attention will centre on the vote split within the MPC and remarks from Governor Andrew Bailey for clues on the policy path ahead.With expectations firmly set, the British Pound may show a muted reaction to the rate announcement but could shift direction depending on how dovish the tone proves to be.In the lead-up to the meeting, GBP/USD appears embarked on a consolidative phase around the 1.3300 region, driven more by US Dollar (USD) dynamics and shifting sentiment around US trade policy than domestic catalysts.“Cable came under renewed downside pressure after hitting more than three-year tops around 1.3440 on April 28, though it seems to have met some decent contention near 1.3260 so far,” said Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet. He added that a clear break above the 2025 high could pave the way for a move toward the 2022 peak at 1.3748 reached on January 13.On the downside, Piovano pointed to the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2849 as key support, followed by the provisional 100-day SMA at 1.2744, which precedes the April floor of 1.2707 (April 7). “If selling pressure builds, deeper support lies at the weekly troughs of 1.2558 (February 28) and 1.2332 (February 11),” he noted. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
Economic Indicator BoE Interest Rate Decision The Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Likewise, if the BoE adopts a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for GBP. Read more. Last release: Thu Mar 20, 2025 12:00 Frequency: Irregular Actual: 4.5% Consensus: 4.5% Previous: 4.5% Source: Bank of England

08:29 FX option expiries for May 8 NY cut
FX option expiries for May 8 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for May 8 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1200 4.2b1.1225 1.1b1.1250 2.4b1.1300 1.5b1.1390 2b1.1400 4.2b1.1420 1.7b1.1500 1.2bGBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.3400 725mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 142.00 1.3b143.00 1.7b144.50 1b145.00 1.7bAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6400 632mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3635 646mNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.6015 419m0.6025 616m

08:27 EUR/USD holds steady above 1.1300 amid softer USD; lacks bullish conviction
The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses a part of the overnight slide from the 1.1375-1.1380 resistance zone.

08:07 NZD/USD trades higher near 0.5950 ahead of potential US-China trade talks
The NZD/USD pair is trading near 0.5970 during Thursday’s Asian session, rebounding after a more than 1% decline in the previous session. The recovery is driven by optimism surrounding potential de-escalation in US-China trade tensions.

07:59 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD remains close to bullish flag hurdle near $33.20 area
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts fresh buying during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses a major part of the previous day's retracement slide from over a one-week high. The white metal climbs to the $33.00 neighborhood in the last hour and seems poised to appreciate further.

07:41 GBP/USD appreciates to near 1.3350, rebounds due to potential US-UK trade deal
The GBP/USD pair rebounds from its recent losses, trading near 1.3340 during the Asian session on Thursday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) gains traction on speculation that the Trump administration may soon announce a trade agreement with the United Kingdom (UK).

07:36 Japanese Yen remains on the front foot against a broadly weaker USD
The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticks higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses a part of the previous day's retracement slide from the weekly high.

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Bets that the BoJ will hike rates again in 2025 and reviving safe-haven demand underpin the JPY.The USD drifts lower despite the Fed’s hawkish pause and further exerts pressure on USD/JPY.The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticks higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses a part of the previous day's retracement slide from the weekly high. Minutes from the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) March meeting indicated that the central bank remains ready to tighten further if economic and price outlooks hold. This, along with reviving safe-haven demand, is seen underpinning the JPY, which, along with the emergence of fresh US Dollar (USD) selling, keeps the USD/JPY pair depressed below the 144.00 round figure. The optimism over the start of US-China trade talks later this week in Switzerland fades rather quickly amid the uncertainty over how a new deal between the world's two largest economies might be structured. Moreover, US President Donald Trump denied lowering tariffs on China, tempering hopes for a quick resolution to the tit-for-tat trade war between the world's two largest economies. Moreover, persistent geopolitical risks keep investors on edge and turn out to be a key factor behind the JPY's outperformance against a broadly weaker USD. Japanese Yen benefits from BoJ rate hike bets, trade-related uncertainties, and geopolitical risksMinutes from the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy meeting held on March 18-19 revealed that the central bank remains ready to hike interest rates further if inflation trends hold. Policymakers, however, stressed caution due to global volatility on the back of heightened economic uncertainty stemming from US tariff policies.Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that he is mindful of the impact of the rising food prices on underlying inflation. Furthermore, expectations that sustained wage hikes will boost consumer spending and inflation in Japan suggest that the BoJ may not abandon its rate-hike plans altogether and tighten further in 2025.US President Donald Trump tempered hopes for a quick resolution to the US-China trade war by saying that he was not open to lowering the 145% tariffs imposed on China. Trump added that he is in no real hurry to sign any deals, though he said that he will announce a major deal with a big, highly respected country later today.On the geopolitical front, Russia and Ukraine engaged in a wave of strikes on Wednesday, ahead of Russian President Vladimir Putin's unilateral three-day ceasefire, which came into force earlier this Thursday. Furthermore, the Israeli military said that it had fully disabled Yemen's main airport in the capital, Sanaa, which is controlled by the Houthis. The US Dollar bulls struggle to capitalize on the previous day's move higher despite the Federal Reserve's signal that it is not leaning toward cutting rates anytime soon. In fact, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that there is a great deal of uncertainty over US trade tariffs and that the right thing to do now is to wait for further clarity. Traders now look forward to the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, due for release later during the North American session. The focus, however, is Trump's press conference at 14 GMT in the Oval Office, which will play a key role in influencing the broader risk sentiment and drive demand for the safe-haven JPY. USD/JPY bearish technical setup backs prospects for a further near-term depreciating moveFrom a technical perspective, the intraday failure near the 144.00 mark favors the USD/JPY pair amid still negative oscillators on the daily chart and against the backdrop of last week's rejection near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Some follow-through selling below the 143.40-143.35 immediate support will reaffirm the negative outlook and drag spot prices below the 143.00 mark, back towards the 142.35 area, or the weekly low. This is followed by the 142.00 round figure, which, if broken, could make the currency pair vulnerable to weakening further.On the flip side, the 144.00 mark might continue to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 144.25-144.30 supply zone. A sustained strength beyond the latter might trigger a short-covering rally and allow the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 145.00 psychological mark. The momentum could extend further towards the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, currently pegged near the 145.25 region, en route to last week's swing high, around the 146.00 neighborhood. Economic Indicator BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes The Bank of Japan publishes a study of economic movements in Japan after the actual meeting. These meetings are held to review economic developments inside and outside of Japan and indicate a sign of new fiscal policy. Any changes in this report tend to affect the JPY volatility. Generally speaking, if the BoJ minutes show a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a dovish outlook is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Wed May 07, 2025 23:50 Frequency: Irregular Actual: - Consensus: - Previous: - Source: Bank of Japan

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 9,216.33 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 9,146.91 it cost on Wednesday. The price for Gold increased to INR 107,496.20 per tola from INR 106,687.80 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,216.33 10 Grams 92,162.32 Tola 107,496.20 Troy Ounce 286,656.60 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price benefits from reviving safe-haven demand, renewed USD selling US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he was not open to lowering the 145% tariffs imposed on China in order to encourage trade-war negotiations. This keeps a lid on the optimism led by the announcement of US-China trade talks later this week and lends some support to the safe-haven Gold price. Airports were shut down across Moscow amid a massive Ukrainian drone attack ahead of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unilaterally announced three-day truce. Furthermore, Ukraine said that Russia had launched guided bombs nearly three hours after the ceasefire came into force earlier this Thursday. Meanwhile, the Israeli military said that it had fully disabled Yemen's main airport in the capital, Sanaa, which is controlled by the Houthis. In response, a member of the Houthis' top political body said that the response to Israel's attacks is coming. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and further underpins the XAU/USD pair. The Federal Reserve, as was widely expected, held its key interest rate unchanged in a range between 4.25%-4.5% at the end of a two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. In the accompanying statement, the US central bank noted that the uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell also noted that there is a great deal of uncertainty about tariffs and said that the right thing to do is wait for further clarity. This suggests that the US central bank is not leaning toward cutting rates anytime soon, though it failed to impress the US Dollar bulls. Trump said on Truth Social that he will announce a major trade deal, the first of many, with representatives of a big and highly respected country on Thursday. This remains supportive of a generally positive risk tone around the equity markets and could act as a headwind for the precious metal. The market focus will remain glued to Trump's press conference at 14 GMT in the Oval Office. Apart from this, Thursday's release of the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data will influence the USD price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the XAU/USD pair later during the North American session. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:32 Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) remains unchanged at 3.7% in April
Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) remains unchanged at 3.7% in April

07:31 Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume dipped from previous 2.1% to 0.9% in March
Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume dipped from previous 2.1% to 0.9% in March

07:01 Chinese Embassy in the US: China will not compromise its principles in trade talks
Citing the Chinese Embassy in the United States (US), the Global Times, a highly influential China’s media outlet, stated on X early Thursday that Beijing is unlikely to lower tariffs before the talks in Switzerland begin.

Citing the Chinese Embassy in the United States (US), the Global Times, a highly influential China’s media outlet, stated on X early Thursday that Beijing is unlikely to lower tariffs before the talks in Switzerland begin.Key quotes“When asked to comment on the US’ statement that it will not lower tariffs before negotiations begin and has implied that the talks were not initiated by the US side, following China’s recent announcement of upcoming talks with the US side, a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy.”“Second, it is China’s consistent position to firmly oppose the US abuse of tariffs. China will resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights and interests, uphold international fairness and justice, and defend WTO rules and the multilateral trading system, according to the embassy.”

06:41 WTI rises above $58.00, trade uncertainty caps gains
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price recovers some ground during Thursday’s Asian session, trading around $58.10 per barrel after recent losses. The rebound is supported by a decline in US crude inventories.

06:00 Indonesia Foreign Reserves: $152.5 (April) vs previous $157.1
Indonesia Foreign Reserves: $152.5 (April) vs previous $157.1

05:53 USD/CAD trades with negative bias above 1.3800 amid uptick in Oil prices, weaker USD
The USD/CAD pair fails to capitalize on the pervious day's modest recovery move from the vicinity of the year-to-date low and meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Thursday.

05:45 USD/INR extends gains due to Fed’s cautious policy outlook, India-Pakistan tensions
The Indian Rupee (INR) loses ground against the US Dollar (USD), extending its losses for the third successive session on Thursday. The USD/INR pair appreciates amid the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious policy outlook.

05:34 Gold price jumps back above $3,400 amid reviving safe-haven demand
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Thursday and rallies back above the $3,400 mark in the last hour, reversing a major part of the overnight slide from a two-week high.

04:36 BoJ’s Ueda: Mindful of impact of the rising food prices on underlying inflation
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday, he is “mindful of the impact of the rising food prices on underlying inflation.”

04:18 US Presi. Trump: Big news conference Thursday morning concerning a major trade deal
US President Donald Trump announced during the Asian trading hours on Thursday of “a big news conference (Thursday) tomorrow morning at 10:00 a.m. (14 GMT) in the Oval Office. concerning a major trade deal with representatives of a big, and highly respected, country.”

US President Donald Trump announced during the Asian trading hours on Thursday of “a big news conference (Thursday) tomorrow morning at 10:00 a.m. (14 GMT) in the Oval Office. concerning a major trade deal with representatives of a big, and highly respected, country.”Trump added: “The first of many.”

04:16 AUD/USD advances to near 0.6450, upside appears limited due to Fed cautious tone
The AUD/USD pair edges higher in Thursday’s Asian session, trading around 0.6440 after falling over 1% in the previous session. The pair had previously touched a five-month high of 0.6514 on Wednesday, but retreated amid Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious policy outlook.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2073 vs. 7.2005 previous
On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.2073 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2005 and 7.2385 Reuters estimate.

04:11 New Zealand PM Luxon: Remain confident about NZ economic recovery
New Zealand's Prime Minister Christopher Luxon crossed the wires in the last hour, saying that the sharp deterioration of financial markets in early April has somewhat recovered, but markets remain volatile.

New Zealand's Prime Minister Christopher Luxon crossed the wires in the last hour, saying that the sharp deterioration of financial markets in early April has somewhat recovered, but markets remain volatile.Additional Quotes:The international environment clearly matters a lot, but I remain confident about our recovery.Budget 2025 net capital allowance is NZ$4 billion vs prior estimate of NZ$3.6 billion.Total capital expenditure allocation in Budget 2025 is NZ$6.8 billion.Market Reaction:The NZD/USD pair sticks to its modest intraday gains around the 0.5950-0.5955 region and, for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's sharp retracement slide from the 0.6020-0.6025 area, over a two-week high.

03:42 BoJ Minutes: BoJ will raise rates if economic and price projections are realized
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members shared their views on the monetary policy outlook this Thursday, per the Minutes of the March 18-19 meeting.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members shared their views on the monetary policy outlook this Thursday, per the Minutes of the March 18-19 meeting.Key Quotes:Members agreed the BoJ would continue to raise rates if its economic and price outlooks were to be realised.One member said it’s appropriate to pay close attention to the new U.S. policies and their impact on the global economy.One member said the BoJ would need to be particularly cautious when considering the timing of the next rate hike, as downside risks stemming from U.S. policies had rapidly heightened.One member said, even with heightened uncertainties, it did not warrant the BoJ to be always cautious, and the BoJ may face a situation where it should act decisively.One member said that it is necessary to make nimble adjustments to the degree of monetary accommodation if it is needed to avoid overheating of financial activities.One member said that during the phase of the next policy interest rate hike, underlying CPI inflation might be fairly close to 2%.One member said that it is not necessary at this point to make any major changes to the bond tapering plan when the BoJ reviews its current plan in June.That member also said the BoJ would, however, need to examine from a longer-term perspective the reduction plan for April 2026 onward.One member said that given that the US Federal Reserve was in no hurry to adjust policy stance, the BoJ policy could be more flexible.Market Reaction:The hawkish minutes come on top of trade-related uncertainties and offer some support to the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY), which, in turn, keeps the USD/JPY pair below the 144.00 mark.

02:01 United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance down to -3% in April from previous 2%
United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance down to -3% in April from previous 2%

01:58 EUR/USD continues to churn after cautious Fed disappoints markets
EUR/USD stuck to its middling ways on Wednesday, remaining entrenched near the 1.1300 handle after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest rate call went about as well as traders expected, albeit with a fresh batch of “wait-and-see” warnings from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

01:50 GBP/USD backslides ahead of BoE rate call
GBP/USD fell back on Wednesday, shedding six-tenths of one percent as markets kept one foot firmly planted in the safe haven Greenback.

01:43 Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) remains unchanged at 2.8% in April
Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) remains unchanged at 2.8% in April

01:00 NZD/USD retreats as Fed signals caution and Kiwi struggles on mixed jobs data
The NZD/USD pair is pulling back from a six-month high near 0.6025 reached earlier on Wednesday, trading around 0.6000 as investors react to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious policy tone and mixed economic data from New Zealand.

NZD/USD consolidates near 0.6000 after touching a six-month high.Fed leaves rates unchanged but highlights rising inflation and unemployment risks.Technical indicators present a mixed outlook, with key support at 0.5920 and resistance at 0.5950.The NZD/USD pair is pulling back from a six-month high near 0.6025 reached earlier on Wednesday, trading around 0.6000 as investors react to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious policy tone and mixed economic data from New Zealand. The Fed kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in line with market expectations but acknowledged rising inflation and unemployment risks, adding a layer of uncertainty to the market.The Fed’s policy statement reaffirmed its data-dependent approach, highlighting that inflation remains “somewhat elevated” and that risks to both unemployment and inflation have increased. This cautious tone, combined with ongoing balance sheet reduction, has supported the US Dollar (USD), putting pressure on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains steady near 99.50, reflecting cautious market sentiment ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference.Meanwhile, New Zealand’s Q1 labor market data added to the Kiwi’s struggles. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1%, surprising markets that expected a slight increase to 5.3%. However, the Labor Cost Index grew at a slower pace than expected, reinforcing expectations for further easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The RBNZ is likely to maintain a dovish stance, with markets pricing in additional rate cuts over the coming months.Technical AnalysisTechnically, NZD/USD faces initial resistance at 0.5943, followed by 0.5948 and 0.5952. On the downside, support is seen at 0.5930, 0.5915, and 0.5886. The RSI is neutral at 55.28, while the MACD shows a bearish divergence, suggesting a potential correction. However, longer-term moving averages, including the 100-day SMA (0.5728) and 200-day SMA (0.5886), signal a more bullish outlook, keeping the broader trend intact.In summary, the NZD/USD outlook remains mixed as the pair consolidates recent gains, with market sentiment likely to hinge on Fed guidance and further clarity on New Zealand’s economic path.Daily Chart

00:37 Brazil Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (14.75%)
Brazil Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (14.75%)

00:30 GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Pound holds near 191.00 as bullish tone strengthens
The GBP/JPY pair edged higher on Wednesday, trading around the 191.00 zone as buyers maintained control.

GBP/JPY trades near the 191.00 zone after steady gains in Wednesday’s session.Overall bias remains bullish, supported by short-term moving averages despite mixed momentum.Key support levels hold just below, while longer-term resistance remains a barrier overhead.The GBP/JPY pair edged higher on Wednesday, trading around the 191.00 zone as buyers maintained control. The pair remains supported by a series of rising short-term moving averages, reinforcing the broader bullish structure despite some mixed momentum signals that may limit immediate upside potential.Technically, the pair maintains a bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index remains neutral near 52, indicating balanced momentum without clear directional conviction. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence confirms a buy signal, aligning with the broader uptrend, while the Stochastic RSI Fast also sits in neutral territory, reflecting the absence of immediate overbought conditions. However, the Momentum indicator flashes a sell signal, suggesting that the recent rally may be losing steam in the short term.From a trend perspective, the 20-day Simple Moving Average, along with the 10-day and 30-day Exponential Moving Averages, all sit below the current price and continue to slope upward, providing dynamic support. In contrast, the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages remain positioned above the market, acting as significant overhead resistance that may cap further gains unless breached decisively.Support levels are noted at 191.12, 191.10, and 190.97. Resistance stands at 191.20, 191.67, and 192.00. A push above this resistance cluster could confirm the broader bullish bias, while failure to hold immediate support might lead to a short-term correction without necessarily disrupting the broader trend.Daily Chart

00:24 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Holds above 0.8200 post-Fed meeting
USD/CHF consolidates on Wednesday, registering a daily close with gains of over 0.21%. The pair witnessed a drop from around 0.8847 to 0.8038, the yearly low in eleven days.

00:02 RBNZ Governor Hawkesby: Tariffs could impact New Zealand significantly
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Christian Hawkesby noted early Thursday that New Zealand's economy remains severely exposed to global trade fallout from US tariff policies.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Christian Hawkesby noted early Thursday that New Zealand's economy remains severely exposed to global trade fallout from US tariff policies.Key highlightsLabour market data confirm activity is subdued.

We're aiming to complete review of bank capital requirement by the end of the year.

Strained functioning of global markets creates significant problems.

Supply-side impacts from tariffs could impact New Zealand significantly.

There is a lot of uncertainty about how the structural framework of the global economy realigns itself due to tariffs.

The most immediate impact is on confidence.

Labour market data did highlight the subdued nature of New Zealand's economy.

We are likely to revise down our projections for global economic activity.

00:00 South Korea FX Reserves: 404.67B (April) vs previous 409.66B
South Korea FX Reserves: 404.67B (April) vs previous 409.66B

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12:54 EUR/USD faces pressure as US Dollar ticks higher, US-UK trade deal in focus EUR/USD ticks lower below 1.1300 during European trading hours on Thursday.

12:50 China keeps adding Gold to its reserves – ING China expanded its Gold reserves for a sixth straight month in April, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

12:48 AUD/USD: Likely to trade in a lower range of 0.6400/0.6470 – UOB Group Rather than sustaining its downward momentum, Australian Dollar (AUD) is more likely to trade in a lower range of 0.6400/0.6470.

12:44 Choppy session for oil – ING It was a choppy session for the oil market yesterday. Initially, Brent rallied amid growing hopes of de-escalation in trade tensions between China and the US, with talks set to start this weekend, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

12:38 USD: Dollar to take its cue from the US-UK trade deal – ING Following a social media post from President Trump last night that a major trade deal would be announced at 16CET/10ET today, speculation is rife that it will be a US-UK agreement.

12:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

12:24 UK and US have reached a "heads of terms" trade agreement – Sky News Citing confirmation from a British government source, Sky News reported on Thursday that the UK and the US have reached a "heads of terms" agreement and a "substantive" step towards a full trade deal.

12:05 Spain 5-y Bond Auction: 2.375% vs previous 2.682% Spain 5-y Bond Auction: 2.375% vs previous 2.682%

12:04 Spain 3-y Bond Auction down to 2.086% from previous 2.292% Spain 3-y Bond Auction down to 2.086% from previous 2.292%

12:02 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Remains confined in a multi-week-old range; not out of the woods yet The USD/CAD pair attracts buyers for the second successive day on Thursday and recovers further from the year-to-date (YTD) low, around the mid-1.3700s touched earlier this week.

11:59 UK PM Starmer: You will hear more from me later today on US economic deal UK Prime Minister (PM) Keir Starmer said on Thursday, “you will hear more from me later today on the US economic deal.”

11:55 AUD/JPY rises toward 93.00, rebounds due to easing safe-haven demand AUD/JPY snaps a three-day losing streak and trades around 92.90 during European hours on Thursday, buoyed by waning demand for safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen (JPY).

11:55 GBP: We're not as dovish as some on the BoE – ING Today's Bank of England meeting should be a market mover, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

11:46 EUR: Are long positions getting stale? – ING EUR/USD has drifted lower to test support at 1.1300 today, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

10:54 Pound Sterling trades with caution ahead of BoE policy decision The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades cautiously against its peers in Thursday’s European session ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision at around 11:00 GMT.

10:49 EUR/GBP remains subdued around 0.8500 due to US-UK trade deal hopes, BoE decision in focus EUR/GBP is extending losses for the fourth consecutive session, trading near 0.8500 in early European hours on Thursday.

10:30 Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (2.25%) Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (2.25%)

10:25 Forex Today: US Dollar rebounds after Fed, attention turns to BoE Here is what you need to know on Thursday, May 8:

10:00 Austria Trade Balance fell from previous €309.6M to €44.9M in February Austria Trade Balance fell from previous €309.6M to €44.9M in February

10:00 Spain Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY) up to 1% in March from previous -1.9% Spain Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY) up to 1% in March from previous -1.9%

09:28 UK Official confirms Trump expected to announce US deal outline An official at the UK government confirmed on Thursday that US President Donald Trump is expected to announce an outline of the US-UK trade deal.

09:15 German Industrial Production jumps 3% MoM in March vs. 0.8% expected Germany’s industrial sector activity increased more than expected in March, according to the latest data published by Destatis on Thursday.

09:04 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $58.35 per barrel, up from Wednesday’s close at $57.68.

09:01 Germany Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) climbed from previous -4% to -0.2% in March Germany Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) climbed from previous -4% to -0.2% in March

09:01 South Africa Net $Gold & Forex Reserve up to $64.318B in April from previous $63.167B South Africa Net $Gold & Forex Reserve up to $64.318B in April from previous $63.167B

09:01 South Africa Gross $Gold & Forex Reserve climbed from previous $67.45B to $67.585B in April South Africa Gross $Gold & Forex Reserve climbed from previous $67.45B to $67.585B in April

09:01 Germany Trade Balance s.a. registered at €21.1B above expectations (€19.1B) in March Germany Trade Balance s.a. registered at €21.1B above expectations (€19.1B) in March

09:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) registered at 3% above expectations (0.8%) in February Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) registered at 3% above expectations (0.8%) in February

09:00 United Kingdom Halifax House Prices (MoM) came in at 0.3%, above forecasts (-0.1%) in April United Kingdom Halifax House Prices (MoM) came in at 0.3%, above forecasts (-0.1%) in April

09:00 Germany Imports (MoM) came in at -1.4% below forecasts (0.4%) in March Germany Imports (MoM) came in at -1.4% below forecasts (0.4%) in March

09:00 Germany Exports (MoM) above forecasts (1%) in March: Actual (1.1%) Germany Exports (MoM) above forecasts (1%) in March: Actual (1.1%)

09:00 BoE expected to cut interest rate to 4.25% despite inflation remaining above objective The Bank of England (BoE) will announce its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday in what marks its third rate-setting meeting of 2025.

08:29 FX option expiries for May 8 NY cut FX option expiries for May 8 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

08:27 EUR/USD holds steady above 1.1300 amid softer USD; lacks bullish conviction The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses a part of the overnight slide from the 1.1375-1.1380 resistance zone.

07:36 Japanese Yen remains on the front foot against a broadly weaker USD The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticks higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses a part of the previous day's retracement slide from the weekly high.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:32 Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) remains unchanged at 3.7% in April Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) remains unchanged at 3.7% in April

07:31 Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume dipped from previous 2.1% to 0.9% in March Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume dipped from previous 2.1% to 0.9% in March

06:41 WTI rises above $58.00, trade uncertainty caps gains West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price recovers some ground during Thursday’s Asian session, trading around $58.10 per barrel after recent losses. The rebound is supported by a decline in US crude inventories.

06:00 Indonesia Foreign Reserves: $152.5 (April) vs previous $157.1 Indonesia Foreign Reserves: $152.5 (April) vs previous $157.1

05:53 USD/CAD trades with negative bias above 1.3800 amid uptick in Oil prices, weaker USD The USD/CAD pair fails to capitalize on the pervious day's modest recovery move from the vicinity of the year-to-date low and meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Thursday.

05:34 Gold price jumps back above $3,400 amid reviving safe-haven demand Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Thursday and rallies back above the $3,400 mark in the last hour, reversing a major part of the overnight slide from a two-week high.

04:36 BoJ’s Ueda: Mindful of impact of the rising food prices on underlying inflation Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday, he is “mindful of the impact of the rising food prices on underlying inflation.”

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2073 vs. 7.2005 previous On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.2073 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.2005 and 7.2385 Reuters estimate.

04:11 New Zealand PM Luxon: Remain confident about NZ economic recovery New Zealand's Prime Minister Christopher Luxon crossed the wires in the last hour, saying that the sharp deterioration of financial markets in early April has somewhat recovered, but markets remain volatile.

03:42 BoJ Minutes: BoJ will raise rates if economic and price projections are realized The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members shared their views on the monetary policy outlook this Thursday, per the Minutes of the March 18-19 meeting.

02:01 United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance down to -3% in April from previous 2% United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance down to -3% in April from previous 2%

01:50 GBP/USD backslides ahead of BoE rate call GBP/USD fell back on Wednesday, shedding six-tenths of one percent as markets kept one foot firmly planted in the safe haven Greenback.

01:43 Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) remains unchanged at 2.8% in April Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) remains unchanged at 2.8% in April

00:37 Brazil Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (14.75%) Brazil Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (14.75%)

00:30 GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Pound holds near 191.00 as bullish tone strengthens The GBP/JPY pair edged higher on Wednesday, trading around the 191.00 zone as buyers maintained control.

00:24 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Holds above 0.8200 post-Fed meeting USD/CHF consolidates on Wednesday, registering a daily close with gains of over 0.21%. The pair witnessed a drop from around 0.8847 to 0.8038, the yearly low in eleven days.

00:02 RBNZ Governor Hawkesby: Tariffs could impact New Zealand significantly Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Christian Hawkesby noted early Thursday that New Zealand's economy remains severely exposed to global trade fallout from US tariff policies.

00:00 South Korea FX Reserves: 404.67B (April) vs previous 409.66B South Korea FX Reserves: 404.67B (April) vs previous 409.66B

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