Chronologiczny zapis wiadomości forex

12:05 USD/CNH: Can breach 7.1800 near term – UOB Group
Impulsive advance in early Asian trade could extend to 7.1550 before levelling off.

Impulsive advance in early Asian trade could extend to 7.1550 before levelling off. In the longer run, downward momentum has largely faded; USD could trade in a broad 7.0900/7.1800 range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann notes. USD to trade in a broad 7.0900/7.1800 range 24-HOUR VIEW: “On Monday, USD plunged to 7.0876 and then rebounded. Yesterday, we pointed out that ‘The rebound in oversold conditions suggests that instead of continuing to weaken, USD is likely to trade in a range, probably between 7.1000 and 7.1250.’ USD then traded in a 7.0990/7.1169 range. In a sudden move in early Asian trade today, it surged. The impulsive advance could extend to 7.1550 before levelling off. The major resistance at 7.1800 is unlikely to come into view. Support levels are at 7.1200 and 7.1000.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We turned negative in USD last Friday (01 Nov, spot at 7.1250). We indicated USD ‘could edge lower, but any decline is expected to encounter solid support at 7.1000.’ After USD plummeted below 7.1000, we highlighted yesterday that ‘The increasing downward momentum, combined with the breach of 7.1000, suggests USD is likely to decline further, potentially to 7.0660.’ In a sudden move early today, USD jumped. While our ‘strong resistance’ level at 7.1380 has not been breached yet, downward momentum has largely faded. The outlook is mixed from here, and USD could trade in a broad 7.0900/7.1800 range for now.”

12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (-3.5%) in September: Actual (-3.4%)
Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (-3.5%) in September: Actual (-3.4%)

12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (-0.6%) in September
Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (-0.6%) in September

11:57 USD/JPY surges to near 154.40 as US Trump claims victory over Democrats
The USD/JPY pair refreshes a four-month high near 154.40 in European trading hours on Wednesday.

11:38 EM: Key battle grounds – ING
USD/CNH is up around 1% as markets price in renewed trade wars, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

USD/CNH is up around 1% as markets price in renewed trade wars, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes. Emerging markets to remain under pressure “In our pre-election scenario analysis, we felt something like 7.30 would be the best case for the onshore USD/CNY under a Trump win scenario where local Chinese authorities would not allow further depreciation. We take the view that they would not devalue the renminbi – as they did in summer 2019 – and instead are playing the long game of keeping the renminbi as a store of value to compete on the world stage. However, the renminbi will of course remain under pressure.” “In Europe, much attention is on the Hungarian forint. It looks like the National Bank of Hungary will have to abandon its easing cycle to concentrate on supporting the forint, where EUR/HUF is moving through 410. Look out for action at National Bank of Hungary open market operations – e.g., leaving the market short of liquidity in an attempt to tighten overnight rates and support the forint. Hungarian forward points look to stay under widening pressure.” “In Latam, the Mexican peso has been hit hard (off 3%). 2025 could be a rough year for the peso were presumed president Trump to opine about not renewing the USMCA at its review in 2026. High volatility is also undermining the carry trade and it’s hard to rule out a move to 22.00 over coming weeks. Both BRL and CLP had a poor Trump 1.0. Both will be under pressure again but a 50bp rate hike from Brazil today should offer some reprieve.”

11:31 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI below forecasts (56) in October: Actual (54.3)
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI below forecasts (56) in October: Actual (54.3)

11:29 NZD/USD: Chance of breaking below 0.5940 – UOB Group
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could break below 0.5940; a sustained decline below this level is unlikely.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could break below 0.5940; a sustained decline below this level is unlikely. In the longer run, weakness in NZD from early last month has ended; it is likely to trade in a 0.5940/0.6040 range for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann notes. Likely to trade in a 0.5940/0.6040 range for now 24-HOUR VIEW: “We expected NZD to trade in a 0.5955/0.5995 range yesterday. Instead of trading in a range, NZD rose to 0.6016, closing at 0.6008 (+0.58%). The sudden sharp sell-off earlier today has resulted in a mixed outlook. That said, there is room for NZD to break the major support at 0.5940 but a clear break below this level is unlikely.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We revised our NZD outlook from negative to neutral two days ago (04 Nov, spot at 0.5985), indicating that ‘the weakness in NZD from early last month has ended.’ We also indicated that NZD ‘has likely entered a range trading phase and is expected to trade between 0.5940 and 0.6040 for now.’ There is no change in our view.”

11:25 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades below $32.50, nine-day EMA
Silver price (XAG/USD) depreciates to near $32.20 during the European session on Wednesday.

11:18 EUR/USD plummets as Trump announces victory in US presidential election
EUR/USD slightly recovers to 1.0750 after nosediving to near 1.0700 in Wednesday’s European session, the lowest level in over four months.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD is hit badly with Trump’s victory in the US presidential election in sight.The Fed is expected to cut interest rates again on Thursday but by a lower size of 25 bps.The Euro underperforms across the board as concerns over Eurozone economic growth have deepened.EUR/USD slightly recovers to 1.0750 after nosediving to near 1.0700 in Wednesday’s European session, the lowest level in over four months. The major currency pair hits badly as Republican candidate Donald Trump appears to take the Senate from Democrats, with Grand Old Party (GOP) gaining an unconquered lead in key battleground states, according to The Associated Press. The agency shows that Trump is inches away from winning 270 seats, a level the party needs to cross to form the government. Meanwhile, Trump has declared victory over Democratic rival Kamala Harris, according to Sky News. A clear victory of Trump in sight keeps the US Dollar (USD) on the front foot. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rallies to near 105.30. Market action clearly shows that Trump’s victory is favorable for the US Dollar, which was already anticipated as the Republican candidate vowed to hike tariffs on imports and lower corporate taxes. A scenario that will boost overall business activity and labor demand and escalate inflationary pressures. However, the plot is unfavorable for currencies of economies like the Eurozone, the United Kingdom (UK), China, and Canada, which are major trading partners of the United States (US). Trump’s protectionist policies will directly impact the export sector of the above-mentioned economies, which will boost the risks of an economic downturn. Going forward, investors will also focus on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, which will be announced on Thursday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have priced in a 25-basis point (bps) interest rate cut, pushing rates lower to the 4.50%-4.75% range. This would be the second interest rate cut by the Fed in a row. However, the rate cut size will be lower than the 50 bps announced in the September meeting. Investors will also focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference to get cues about the impact of Trump’s victory on the interest rate path and the inflation outlook. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD is punished by upbeat US Dollar and weak Euro EUR/USD faces severe selling pressure due to the US Dollar’s outperformance and the Euro’s (EUR) sharp depreciation against other major currencies. The outlook of the Euro has weakened as market participants expect that the implementation of Trump’s protectionist policies will significantly damage European economic growth. According to the Dutch bank, Trump's tariffs would shave approximately 1.5 percentage points off European growth, translating to a potential €260 billion economic loss based on Europe's estimated 2024 GDP of €17.4 trillion. Should Europe's growth falter under Trump's tariffs, the European Central Bank (ECB) may be compelled to respond aggressively, slashing rates to near zero by 2025, according to Euronews. Trump’s victory would likely force the ECB to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by a larger-than-usual size of 50 bps in its next monetary policy meeting in December. This would be the fourth interest rate cut by the ECB this year. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD posts fresh four-month low near 1.0700 EUR/USD slides swiftly to near the key support of 1.0700. The outlook of the major currency pair weakens as it breaks below an upward-sloping trendline around 1.0750, which is plotted from the April 16 low at around 1.0600 The declining 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0930 suggests a firm bearish trend. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) retreats below 40.00, suggesting a resumption of the bearish momentum. Looking down, the shared currency pair could decline to the year-to-date (YTD) low of 1.0600. On the upside, the round-level resistance of 1.0800 will act as a key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:12 JPY: House vote to be key – ING
USD/JPY is just over 1% higher today as it reacts to the rise in US yields, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

USD/JPY is just over 1% higher today as it reacts to the rise in US yields, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes. Broad USD strength to dominate “The Yen (JPY) also acts as a liquid proxy to Asian currencies about to be hit with another trade war. The Bank of Japan will not like another big run up in USD/JPY, although FX intervention looks unlikely amidst broad dollar gains.” “We think the JPY can outperform on the crosses especially were the Republicans not to gain the House. Under this scenario, US equity markets (particularly bank stocks) could hand back some of their recent gains. For the time being, however, expect broad USD strength to dominate and 155 to prove the direction of travel.”

11:06 AUD/USD: A break of the major support at 0.6535 is unlikely – UOB Group
The Australian Dollar (AUD) could further but a break of the major support at 0.6535 is unlikely.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) could further but a break of the major support at 0.6535 is unlikely. In the longer run, month-long AUD weakness has stabilised; AUD is expected to trade in a 0.6535/0.6655 range for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann notes. AUD is expected to trade in a 0.6535/0.6655 range for now 24-HOUR VIEW: “Our view of sideways trading yesterday was incorrect, as AUD rose sharply, reaching a high of 0.6641. The advance was short-lived, as AUD plummeted from the high. AUD could drop further but a break of the major support at 0.6535 is unlikely (minor support is at 0.6565). Resistance levels are at 0.6620 and 0.6640.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our most recent narrative was from Monday (04 Nov, spot at 0.6585), wherein the recent ‘month-long AUD weakness has stabilised,’ and AUD ‘is expected to ‘trade in a 0.6535/0.6655 range for now.’ Yesterday, AUD rose to a high of 0.6641, and then plummeted today. The price movements provides no fresh clues and we continue to expect AUD to trade in a 0.6535/0.6655 range.”

11:00 AUD/USD rebounds from multi-month low, finds support ahead of 0.6500 mark
The AUD/USD pair trims a part of heavy intraday losses and recovers around 70-75 pips from the vicinity of the 0.6500 psychological mark, or its lowest level since August 8 touched earlier this Wednesday.

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The RBA’s hawkish stance and the risk-on impulse help limit losses for the major.The AUD/USD pair trims a part of heavy intraday losses and recovers around 70-75 pips from the vicinity of the 0.6500 psychological mark, or its lowest level since August 8 touched earlier this Wednesday. Spot prices, however, remain deep in negative territory through the first half of the European session and currently trade just below the 0.6600 mark, still down over 0.85% for the day. The sharp intraday fall of over 130 pips for the AUD/USD pair was led by a strong pickup in the US Dollar (USD) demand. In fact, the USD Index (DXY) shot to a four-month top after the US presidential election exit polls showed that Republican nominee Donald Trump is leading the race. Furthermore, Republicans are projected to take the majority of the House after securing the Senate. Meanwhile, a Trump presidency revives fears about the launch of fresh tariffs and a trade war with China, which further weighs on the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD). Moreover, deficit-spending concerns and bets for smaller rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) push the US Treasury bond yields higher, further underpinning the USD and exerting pressure on the AUD/USD pair. That said, the risk-on impulse – as depicted by a sharp rally in the US equity futures – prompts some profit-taking around the safe-haven Greenback. Apart from this, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish stance and signs that China's big stimulus push is helping improve business conditions limit losses for the Aussie, prompting intraday short-covering around the AUD/USD pair. It, however, remains to be seen if spot prices can build on momentum or if the attempted recovery is seen as a selling opportunity amid the underlying strong bullish sentiment surrounding the USD. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the AUD/USD pair has formed a near-term bottom and positioning for any further appreciating move. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

11:00 EUR: Europe braces itself for Trump 2.0 – ING
European politicians will be waking up to face their fears this Wednesday morning.

European politicians will be waking up to face their fears this Wednesday morning. As it now looks like Trump will take the presidency with a strong popular mandate, his trade agenda of levelling the playing field will weigh heavily on the open economy of continental Europe, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. Euro goes down on Trump’s possible win “The euro has so far proved the weakest of the G10 currencies overnight and you can see why. The expectation is that Donald Trump extends his trade war from just China in his first term more broadly in his second term. This at a time of stagnant eurozone growth and self-reflection – especially in Germany – as to its future business model. Plans to export its way out of stagnation are no longer an option for the eurozone.” “We believe this would be the worst scenario for EUR/USD – faced with renewed trade wars yet without the support to global growth that extended US tax cuts could deliver. Under such a scenario, EUR/USD could be sub parity in late 2025. This would be a scenario where the European Central Bank would have to cut rates deep into accommodative territory.” “For the short term, EUR/USD would probably have fallen harder today if markets had not started to price a Trump win in October. But the direction of travel over coming days looks to be towards the 1.0550/0600 area, with EUR/USD struggling to sustain gains over 1.0800/0850 now.”

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI came in at 50, above forecasts (49.7) in October
Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI came in at 50, above forecasts (49.7) in October

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI above expectations (51.2) in October: Actual (51.6)
Eurozone HCOB Services PMI above expectations (51.2) in October: Actual (51.6)

10:55 Germany HCOB Services PMI registered at 51.6 above expectations (51.4) in October
Germany HCOB Services PMI registered at 51.6 above expectations (51.4) in October

10:55 Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.6, above expectations (48.4) in October
Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.6, above expectations (48.4) in October

10:50 France HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.1, above forecasts (47.3) in October
France HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.1, above forecasts (47.3) in October

10:50 France HCOB Services PMI above expectations (48.3) in October: Actual (49.2)
France HCOB Services PMI above expectations (48.3) in October: Actual (49.2)

10:45 GBP/USD: Can break below 1.2900 – UOB Group
The Pound Sterling (GBP) could trade in a choppy and broad range of 1.2900/1.3040.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) could trade in a choppy and broad range of 1.2900/1.3040. In the longer run, for the time being, GBP is likely to trade in a 1.2900/1.3030 range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann notes. GBP is likely to trade in a 1.2900/1.3030 range 24-HOUR VIEW: “The sharp rise in GBP that sent it to a high of 1.3043 was surprising (we were expecting range trading). GBP was unable to hold on to its gains, as it plunged today. The outlook is unclear after the wide fluctuations. Further choppy trading is not ruled, likely within a broad 1.2910/1.3040 range.” 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Yesterday (05 Nov, spot at 1.2955), we pointed out that ‘the recent buildup in downward momentum has faded.’ We expect GBP to ‘trade in a 1.2900/1.3030 range for the time being.’ While GBP rose above 1.3030 (high of 1.3043), it plummeted from the high. The price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect GBP to trade in a 1.2900/1.3030 range.”

10:45 Italy HCOB Services PMI above expectations (50.7) in October: Actual (52.4)
Italy HCOB Services PMI above expectations (50.7) in October: Actual (52.4)

10:44 USD: Trump trades boost the US Dollar – ING
The reaction to the US election so far in the FX market has been, as expected, a strong dollar across the board.

The reaction to the US election so far in the FX market has been, as expected, a strong dollar across the board. Expect a prolonged period of dollar outperformance “There is no huge divergence across G10 currencies performance, where daily losses amount to around 1.0-1.7% except for the Canadian dollar, which is down by less than 1%. That mirrors a view that a Republican clean sweep is positive for the US economy and, by extension, Canadian exporters, as well as the fact that CAD will be less exposed to tariffs on China and geopolitical developments under a new Trump presidency.” “The bear steepening and widespread selloff across the Treasury yield curve mirrors widespread expectations for an inflationary mix of domestic (fiscal and migration) and external (tariffs) policies from Trump. We are also observing some action in the short-term USD swap rates linked to a hawkish repricing in Fed rate expectations.” “In line with our expectations and consensus, markets are holding on to expectations for a 25bp FOMC cut to 4.75% tomorrow, but the OIS curve has recorded some 10bp+ repricing across 2025 tenors. That embeds a policy rate close to 4.0% in June 2025, almost 100bp higher than mid-September pricing.”

10:35 Mexican Peso plummets as Trump closes in on victory
The Mexican Peso (MXN) plummets in its most-heavily traded pairs on Wednesday, especially versus the US Dollar (USD), against which it is down over two percent after results from the US presidential election show Republican nominee Donald Trump extremely close to victory.

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Trump’s threats of whacking huge tariffs on Mexican imports is wreaking havoc with the Peso. USD/MXN closes an open chart gap and extends its established uptrend within a rising channel. The Mexican Peso (MXN) plummets in its most-heavily traded pairs on Wednesday, especially versus the US Dollar (USD), against which it is down over two percent after results from the US presidential election show Republican nominee Donald Trump extremely close to victory. Trump leads with 267 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 224, according to latest figures from the Associated Press. This leaves Trump needing only three more electoral votes to reach 270 and enter the White House. The news that the Republican party has won a majority in the United States (US) Senate and might also scoop the Congress is further weighing on the Peso and lifting the Greenback in all its pairs. The Peso’s massive drop against the USD is due to Trump’s threat to place punitive tariffs on Mexican imports as well as the overall uplift to USD from his Dollar-positive economic policies. Mexican Peso: Further upside could be down to who wins Congress The Mexican Peso is currently trading at 20.70 to the US Dollar. However, it may experience even more weakness if the Republicans win a majority in Congress, according to forecasts by Mexican financial news website El Financiero. If Trump wins with a Republican majority in Congress, the Peso is likely to fall to between 21.14 and 22.26 against the US Dollar, said the website. If Trump wins without a Republican majority in Congress, the pair is likely to end up in a range between 19.70 and 21.14. Mexican Peso also rattled by domestic woes The Mexican Peso faces further negative pressure after the Mexican Supreme Court rejected proposals to alter a controversial new law allowing the election of judges by popular vote on Tuesday, according to El Financiero. The Mexican Supreme Court decided to reject the arguments of one of its own judges, Juan Luis González Alcántara, that the reform was partially unconstitutional because aspects of the new law undermines the independence of the judiciary. Instead, Alcántara, a known critic of the reforms, had proposed a modification to the law, only allowing the election of Supreme Court judges not all judges, which include thousands of lower court justices as well. Critics argue the reform could increase concerns among foreign investors regarding the rule of law in Mexico and reduce inbound investment. Technical Analysis: USD/MXN closes gap and surges higher USD/MXN shoots higher and closes the gap opened on Monday (red-shaded rectangle on the chart below). USD/MXN 4-hour Chart USD/MXN is in an overall uptrend on a short, medium and long-term basis. Further, it is trading in a bullish rising channel. Given the technical dictum “the trend is your friend,” the odds, therefore, favor a continuation higher. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains just below the overbought level of 70, suggesting there is still scope for further upside. A break above the 20.80 high would probably confirm more gains, with 21.00 coming into view as the next key target and resistance level (round number, psychological support). Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

10:27 Not only Harris lost, the euro lost as well – Commerzbank
Not only did the US dollar make significant gains last night.

Not only did the US dollar make significant gains last night. At the same time, the euro lost more than the other G10 currencies, Commerzbank’s Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. Euro suffers a blow amid Trump win “This is no coincidence. The euro area is likely to suffer disproportionately from a restrictive US trade policy. Not only because of its direct exports to the US. Should the US not remain the ultimate sink of global trade flows (or only in terms of trade that are more favorable for the US than before), global trade as a whole may suffer. This will affect the export nations. And quite a few of them are in the euro area. Germany, for example.” “Furthermore, if one believes that exports are an important growth driver for a number of euro zone economies, one must also assume that a restrictive US trade policy will cement Europe's growth disadvantage vis-à-vis the US. This, too, would be negative for EUR/USD in the long term.” “Because all these consequences are becoming apparent this morning, EUR/USD is suffering not only in the distant future, but also this morning – beyond the extent of general Greenback strength.”

10:18 GBP/JPY rises above 198.00 as traders expect BoE to deliver a nominal rate cut in November
GBP/JPY extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 198.30 during the European hours on Wednesday.

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However, the upside potential for the GBP/JPY cross seems possible as the Bank of England (BoE) is projected to lower interest rates by only 25 basis points on Thursday. Investor expectations now point to fewer rate cuts in 2024 compared to projections made before last week’s budget announcement. The Office for Budget Responsibility recently revised its 2025 inflation forecast, increasing it to an average of 2.6% from March's 1.5% estimate. This update aligns closely with the BoE’s August forecast, which projects inflation at 2.4% in one year, 1.7% in two years, and 1.5% in three years. Investors will closely monitor BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's press conference for insights into how the FY2025 budget might influence inflation expectations and shape monetary policy decisions in December. The downside for the Japanese Yen (JPY) is expected to be limited, influenced by the hawkish tone in the minutes from the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent meeting. The minutes showed broad agreement among board members to continue raising interest rates, as inflation and economic conditions appear to support the central bank's policy objectives. The Jibun Bank Japan Services Business Activity Index fell to 49.7 in October, down from 53.1 in September, signaling a decline in services activity. This marks the first contraction since June, although it was marginal, with companies reporting slower sales. Economic Indicator BoE Interest Rate Decision The Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Likewise, if the BoE adopts a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for GBP. Read more. Next release: Thu Nov 07, 2024 12:00 Frequency: IrregularConsensus: 4.75%Previous: 5%Source: Bank of England

10:16 China: Looking beyond the NPC meetings – Standard Chartered
With 2024 growth risk ebbing, we think the policy focus has shifted to 2025.

With 2024 growth risk ebbing, we think the policy focus has shifted to 2025. The Standing Committee of the NPC may approve bank recapitalisation and local debt swap plans, but we see low probability of a budget revision for 2024. Additional fiscal stimulus to counter external risks will likely be planned at the December CEWC, Standard Chartered’s economists Shuang Ding and Hunter Chan notes. In no hurry to respond to the US election “China’s policy makers will likely reserve their firepower for next year as growth risks have decreased. The mid-October fiscal package made CNY 1.4tn additional spending possible in Q4, reducing downside risks. The official PMI returned to expansionary territory in October, consistent with the Caixin PMI and our SMEI survey, boding well for an activity rebound in Q4. We now see upside risk to our 2024 growth forecast of 4.8%. Senior government officials have recently become more confident in achieving the growth target of 5%.” “The Standing Committee (SC) of the National People’s Congress (NPC) will conclude its session on 8 November, immediately after the US presidential election. Many market participants expect the SC to approve additional fiscal stimulus (including revising the 2024 budget), with the size of stimulus dependent on the US election outcome. We expect the SC to approve a CNY 1tn special central government bonds (CGBs) quota to replenish capital at six major banks, and a local special bonds quota of CNY 6-10tn for the debt swap to be used over 3-5 years. We see a below-50% chance of the 2024 CGB quota being increased. The government may wait until the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) in December to tackle external risks in a comprehensive way.” “If Harris wins the election, we expect China’s narrowly defined official budget deficit to be widened to 3.5% of GDP (CNY 4.8tn) in 2025 from an effective 3.4% (CNY 4.5tn) this year. In case of a Trump win, another CNY 1-2tn of spending (c.1% of GDP) will likely be added to offset a potential increase in US tariffs on imports from China.”

10:15 Spain HCOB Services PMI below expectations (56.6) in October: Actual (54.9)
Spain HCOB Services PMI below expectations (56.6) in October: Actual (54.9)

10:01 Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM) rose from previous -0.7% to 0.7% in October
Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM) rose from previous -0.7% to 0.7% in October

10:00 Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY) climbed from previous -3.1% to -1.3% in October
Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY) climbed from previous -3.1% to -1.3% in October

09:48 Breaking: Trump inches closer to presidency after winning decisive Pennsylvania swing state
Former US president Donald Trump is about to officially win the 2024 US presidential election.

Former president Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania, according to the Associated Press, putting him short of three electoral votes for the presidency.Trump could take the election by just winning in Alaska or any other swing state.Trump's likely victory favours the so-called Trump trades, with the US Dollar and Bitcoin soaring.Former US president Donald Trump is about to officially win the 2024 US presidential election. The Republican candidate has won in Pennsylvania, a key swing state, according to the Associated Press. Trump's win in this key state, as well as his lead in others, puts him on the verge of victory. Trump had already win in other key states such as Georgia and North Carolina. The US Dollar soars more than 1.5% on Wednesday, according to the DXY US Dollar Index. Meanwhile, Bitcoin jumps 6% and has reached a new all-time high.(developing story, please refresh for updates)

09:41 Trump speech: Thank the American people for honor of being elected
Donald Trump delivers a speech at the Palm Beach Convention Center after he is widely projected to win the presidency.

Donald Trump delivers a speech at the Palm Beach Convention Center after he is widely projected to win the presidency. Trump speech key takeaways "We're going to help our country heal." "We made history for a reason tonight, it's a political victory." "I thank the American people for honor of being elected." "I will fight for every citizen." "This is a magnificent victory for the American people." "We are now winning in Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Alaska." "America has given us an unprecedented mandate." "We've taken back control of Senate." "Gonna have to seal up borders." "Want people to come back in but they have to come in legally."

09:41 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Falls toward descending channel's lower boundary near 0.5900
The NZD/USD pair loses ground to near 0.5930 during Wednesday's early European session.

09:35 Pound Sterling plunges as Trump trades intensify
The Pound Sterling (GBP) plummets to near 1.2850 against the US Dollar (USD) in early London trading hours on Wednesday.

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The GBP/USD pair faces an intense sell-off as investors rush to the so-called ‘Trump trades’ after various exit polls showed Republican candidate Donald Trump having a clear lead over Democratic rival Kamala Harris in the US presidential election. According to the Associated Press, Trump has been announced as a winner in key swing state North Carolina and is also leading in the other six swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin. The impact of Trump leading election polls is clearly visible in risk-sensitive currencies, which are significantly down against the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh four-month high at around 105.30. Risk-perceived currencies have been hit hard as investors expect higher import tariffs in Trump’s administration, which will significantly impact exports of United States (US) close trading partners. Trump also promised lower corporate taxes if he wins, which would allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a hawkish interest rate guidance. Apart from the US presidential election, investors will also focus on the Fed’s monetary policy meeting, scheduled on Thursday. The Fed is widely anticipated to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50%-4.75%. Therefore, investors will pay close attention to the Fed’s commentary on interest rate guidance. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling is sidelined ahead of BoE meeting Except against the US Dollar, the Pound Sterling exhibits a mixed performance compared to its major peers on Wednesday. The British currency is expected to trade sideways, with investors focusing on the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision, which will be announced on Thursday. The BoE is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.75%. This would be the second interest rate cut this year. The BoE started its policy-easing cycle with a usual rate cut of 25 bps on August 1. Investors expect the BoE rate cut decision to be a 7-0 vote split, while the other two Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members are expected to support leaving interest rates unchanged at their current levels. Investors will pay close attention to BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference to know the impact of the United Kingdom (UK) budget for FY2025 on the inflation outlook and the monetary policy action in December. There would also be some questions about the impact of Trump’s victory on the UK economy if he wins or remains in the lead by then. According to economists at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), the UK economic growth would be just 0.4% if Trump’s tariff plans were implemented. The agency also sees a slower Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 1.2% next year and 1.1% in 2026, even without Trump’s tariffs, Reuters reported. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling dives to near 200-day EMAThe Pound Sterling dives to an 11-week low near 1.2850 against the US Dollar, which aligns with the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The GBP/USD pair faced significant offers after a mean-reversion move to near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.3000.The Cable has also delivered a Rising Channel breakdown on a daily timeframe, suggesting that a bearish reversal has been triggered. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls back below 40.00, suggesting that the bearish momentum has resumed. Looking down, the round-level support of 1.2800 will be a major cushion for Pound Sterling bulls. On the upside, the Cable will face resistance near the psychological figure of 1.3000. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:12 German Factory Orders jump 4.2% MoM in September vs. 1.5% expected
Germany’s Factory Orders rebounded in September, according to the official data published by the Federal Statistics Office on Monday, suggesting that the German manufacturing sector recovery is back on track.

Germany’s Factory Orders rebounded in September, according to the official data published by the Federal Statistics Office on Monday, suggesting that the German manufacturing sector recovery is back on track. Over the month, contracts for goods ‘Made in Germany’ jumped by 4.2% in September after the 5.4% revised slump reported in August. Data beat the estimates of a 1.5% increase.

09:10 Forex Today: US Dollar rallies as Donald Trump remains on track to win presidency
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, November 6: The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength early Wednesday as markets react to US presidential election results, with the USD trading at its highest level since early July above 105.00.

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, November 6: The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength early Wednesday as markets react to US presidential election results, with the USD trading at its highest level since early July above 105.00. The US economic calendar will not feature any high-tier data releases and investors will continue to pay close attention to headlines surrounding the election outcome in key battleground states. Donald Trump is projected to retake key battleground states that he narrowly lost in 2020. Almost every new major news outlet has called Georgia and North Carolina for Donald Trump. Just recently, Fox News has called Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for also Donald Trump. According to Decision Desk HQ, Trump is on track to become the 47th President of the United States. Furthermore, Republicans are projected to take the majority of the House after securing the Senate.Source: Decision Desk HQ In the meantime, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is up more than 3% on the day above 4.4% and US stock index futures gain between 1.5% and 1.7%.EUR/USD stays under heavy bearish pressure and loses nearly 2% on the day below 1.0750 in the early European session. Eurostat will publish Producer Price Index (PPI) data for September later in the session. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to deliver a speech at 14:00 GMT.GBP/USD declines sharply on Wednesday and trades below 1.2900, pressured by impressive USD strength.USD/JPY gathers bullish momentum and trades at its highest level since late July above 154.00.Gold turns south after posting small daily gains on Tuesday and falls toward $2,700, dragged by the rallying US Treasury bond yields.AUD/USD stays on the back foot and loses nearly 1.5% on the day, trading slightly below 0.6550. Similarly, NZD/USD was last seen losing 1.4% at 0.5930.

09:01 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) increased to 1% in September from previous -3.9%
Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) increased to 1% in September from previous -3.9%

09:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) above expectations (1.5%) in September: Actual (4.2%)
Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) above expectations (1.5%) in September: Actual (4.2%)

08:49 USD/CAD Price Forecast: The pair keeps bullish vibe above 1.3900
The USD/CAD pair gathers strength to near 1.3930 during the early European session on Wednesday.

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According to the daily chart, USD/CAD keeps a bullish vibe at present as the price is well-supported above the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Furthermore, the upward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 64.45, indicating that further upside cannot be ruled out in the near term.

Any follow-through buying above the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band at 1.3972 could still lift USD/CAD back up to the 1.4000 psychological mark. A decisive break above this level could attract some buyers to 1.4140, the weekly high of May 11.

On the flip side, the initial support level for the pair is seen at 1.3836, the low of November 5. Extended losses could pave the way to 1.3750, the low of October 16. The key contention level to watch is the 1.3700-1.3695 zone, representing the round figure and the 100-day EMA. USD/CAD daily chartCanadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

08:42 FX option expiries for Nov 6 NY cut
FX option expiries for Nov 6 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

FX option expiries for Nov 6 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0650 3.9b 1.0725 1.5b 1.0750 900m 1.0800 2.4b 1.0880 1.2b 1.0850 2b USD/JPY: USD amounts 153.50 729m USD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8475 776m 0.8700 1.4b AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6475 689m 0.6510 729m 0.6525 817m 0.6675 929m USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3750 904m 1.3800 555m 1.3875 420m EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8390 448m

08:00 Russia S&P Global Services PMI up to 51.6 in October from previous 50.5
Russia S&P Global Services PMI up to 51.6 in October from previous 50.5

07:53 US Election 2024: Trump takes must-win North Carolina, Republicans win Senate control
Republican nominee Donald Trump is leading the US presidential race, most likely to become the 47th president, leading Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in most of the battlegrounds after taking the must-win swing state of North Carolina.

Republican nominee Donald Trump is leading the US presidential race, most likely to become the 47^th president, leading Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in most of the battlegrounds after taking the must-win swing state of North Carolina. The resurgence of Trump trades has supported the renewed upside in the US Dollar (USD) and global stocks. The current electoral vote tally is 227 for Trump and 189 for Harris, with the former US President taking hold of the swing states - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Fox News called Republicans in control of the US Senate yet again. Republicans won a key Senate seat in Ohio, with Trump-endorsed nominee Bernie Moreno projected to defeat Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, according to CNN News, flipping yet another seat for the (Grand Old Party) GOP. The main focus is on the control of the House. If Democrats take the House majority, it could be a ‘divided government, causing policy gridlock for the likely Trump administration. Democrats need to flip just four seats to win control of the lower chamberHowever, it appears that Republicans are still defending the control of the House by a narrow majority.

07:38 EUR/JPY remains subdued around 165.50 following BoJ Meeting Minutes, awaits Eurozone PMI
EUR/JPY maintains its position near 165.50 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gained support from hawkish minutes of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) most recent meeting.

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The minutes showed that board members were largely in agreement on continuing to raise interest rates, as inflation and economic conditions align with the central bank’s objectives. The Jibun Bank Japan Services Business Activity Index fell to 49.7 in October, down from 53.1 in September, signaling a decline in services activity. This marks the first contraction since June, although it was marginal, with companies reporting slower sales. The positive Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data led traders to scale back expectations for a larger-than-usual interest rate cut at the December policy meeting. However, markets still anticipate the European Central Bank (ECB) will reduce the Deposit Facility Rate by the usual 25 basis points (bps) in December. PMI data for Germany and the Eurozone is set to be released on Wednesday, and traders will shift their focus to speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and Vice President Luis de Guindos later in the day. Regarding the US presidential election, early exit poll results from Wisconsin indicate a lead for Republican candidate Donald Trump, with 56% of the vote compared to 42.5%, based on 7.5% of expected votes counted. In North Carolina, exit polls show a tight race between Trump and Kamala Harris, with 50% of the votes counted. In Michigan, with 12% of votes counted, Harris' lead has shrunk from 61% to 53%. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

07:35 EUR/GBP extends downside below 0.8350, investors await the BoE rate decision
The EUR/GBP cross extends its decline to around 0.8345 during the early European session on Wednesday.

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The UK central bank is anticipated to reduce its interest rate from 5.0% to 4.75% at its Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Thursday. The markets believe the heightened UK government spending may be inflationary, triggering the BoE to slow the expected path of rate cuts.

“Markets have already tempered expectations [and are] now forecasting two or three rate cuts in 2025, down from earlier projections of four or five,” said Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com. “The BoE is now expected to cut rates less aggressively than the Fed and the ECB,” Hathorn added in a note.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has already reduced rates three times already this year as inflation risks in the Eurozone ease faster than expected. The central bank lowered the deposit rate by a further 25 basis points (bps) at its October meeting. The decision came after inflation in the euro area cooled to 1.8% in September, below the ECB’s 2% target.

Nonetheless, the stronger-than-expected Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could trim the ECB rate cut expectation, which caps the downside for the shared currency. The ECB's President Christine Lagarde and Vice President Luis de Guindos are scheduled to speak later on Wednesday. Investors will take more cues from the speeches. Less dovish remarks could lift the EUR against the GBP for the time being. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

07:16 USD/CHF retreats from multi-month top, still well bid above 0.8700 amid bullish USD
The USD/CHF pair catches aggressive bids on Wednesday and spikes to its highest level since early August, around the 0.8755 region during the Asian session.

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Spot prices, however, retreat a few pips in the last hour and currently trade just above the 0.8700 mark, still up 0.90% for the day. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens across the board and spikes to over a four-month peak in reaction to initial US election exit polls, which indicated an early lead for former President Donald Trump in key swing states. Meanwhile, the Trump optimism triggers a fresh wave of risk-on trade across the global equity markets and undermines the safe-haven Swiss Franc, which, in turn, provides an additional boost to the USD/CHF pair. Meanwhile, speculations that a Republican sweep could see the launch of Trump's potentially inflation-generating tariffs, along with deficit-spending concerns and bets for a less aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), continue to push the US bond yields higher. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond surges over 15 points at 4.44%, hitting its highest level since July 2 and favors the USD bulls. That said, expectations for a further spike in volatility across the financial markets act as a headwind for the buck and hold back traders from positioning for any further appreciating move for the USD/CHF pair. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside. Hence, any subsequent decline might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

07:00 India HSBC Services PMI came in at 58.5, above forecasts (58.3) in October
India HSBC Services PMI came in at 58.5, above forecasts (58.3) in October

07:00 India HSBC Composite PMI: 59.1 (October) vs 58.6
India HSBC Composite PMI: 59.1 (October) vs 58.6

06:44 NZD/USD loses ground more than 1% due to Trump trade rally
NZD/USD depreciates by more than 1% as the US Dollar (USD) rises due to a Trump trade rally sparked by the favorable results for the Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election.

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The pair trades around 0.5930 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. As exit polls indicate growing support for former President Trump’s bid to become the 47th President of the United States (US), the market sentiment shifts in favor of the US Dollar, undermining the NZD/USD pair. Early exit poll results from Wisconsin indicate a lead for Republican candidate Donald Trump, with 56% of the vote compared to 42.5%, based on 7.5% of expected votes counted. In North Carolina, exit polls show a tight race between Trump and Kamala Harris, with 50% of the votes counted. In Michigan, with 12% of votes counted, Harris' lead has shrunk from 61% to 53%. Follow our live coverage: Trump or Harris? Who will be the 47th President of the US and how will markets react? On Wednesday, Stats NZ released the Unemployment Rate for the third quarter (Q3) of New Zealand, which rose to 4.8% from 4.6% in the second quarter. This figure was below the market consensus of 5.0% for the period. The Employment Change rate declined by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and by 0.8% year-on-year in Q3. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 75 basis points (bps) as part of its easing cycle, which began in August. Markets are anticipating another 50 bps reduction at the final policy decision of the year on November 27, bringing the OCR down to 4.25%. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

06:37 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 7,412.06 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 7,424.86 it cost on Tuesday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 86,452.76 per tola from INR 86,602.09 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 7,412.06 10 Grams 74,125.16 Tola 86,452.76 Troy Ounce 230,529.10 FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Related newsGold Price Forecast: $2,750 - a tough nut to crack, as focus stays on US election results Gold price remains below $2,750 as USD and bond yields surge on Trump enthusiasm Gold price bulls remain on the sidelines, around $2,740 after early US election resultsGold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

06:30 EUR/USD recovers few pips from multi-month low, still deep in the red around mid-1.0700s
The EUR/USD pair comes under intense selling pressure on Wednesday and dives to its lowest level since early July, around the 1.0720-1.0715 region during the Asian session.

06:24 US Election 2024: Exit polls suggest a nail-biter race; Trump leads in key swing states
Republican nominee Donald Trump is most likely to become the 47th US president, according to the exit polls, as he leads in several major battlegrounds by a minor margin after taking more than 20 reliably red states.

Republican nominee Donald Trump is most likely to become the 47^th US president, according to the exit polls, as he leads in several major battlegrounds by a minor margin after taking more than 20 reliably red states. The Trump trade optimism is back in play, bolstering the US Dollar (USD) and global stocks. The current electoral vote tally is 211 for Trump and 145 for Harris and the New York Times (NYT) needle puts Trump at 88% chance of winning the presidency.The presidential race still remains too close a call in these swing states, as some states may take a couple of days to offer final results. Exit polls result in Wisconsin point to a Trump lead, as the former US president secures 51% of the votes to 48%, with 63% of the expected votes counted. However, human error and hoax bomb threats have held up vote counts at some polling stations in Michigan. In Milwaukee, election officials are recounting more than 30,000 absentee ballots because doors on the ballot tabulators were not properly sealed. The recount could delay results in Wisconsin, considered one of seven critical swing states. North Carolina exit polls also show similar results, with 88% of votes counted About 30% of votes were counted in Michigan and Trump sees a 51.6% lead to 46.7%. Nebraska District 2 initial results show Harris leading, with 54.4% while the support for Trump stands at 38%, as 78% of the votes get counted. Georgia, a key swing state, was among the first of those with available exit polls, showing a Trump victory. The state, which holds 16 electoral votes, shows Trump securing about 51.1% of the votes against Harris’ 48.2%, according to CBC News, with 90% of the expected votes counted. Some media outlets have called North Carolina and Georgia for Trump already. Preliminary results in Pennsylvania, the most closely watched swing state, shift in favor of Trump, per CBC News. With about 76% of the expected votes counted, Kamala now secures 48% vs. Trump’s 51.0%. The state holds 19 electoral votes.Follow our live coverage of the market reaction to the US presidential election as counting results hit the wires.

06:03 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls due to Trump trade optimism
Silver price depreciates as safe-haven metals face challenges over Trump trade rally.

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The dollar-denominated precious metal faces downward pressure from a stronger US Dollar (USD), which is likely linked to a rally sparked by the favorable results for the Republican candidate in the US presidential election. As exit polls begin to show growing support for former President Donald Trump, the likelihood of him becoming the 47th president is increasing. This renewed optimism surrounding the "Trump trade" is lifting market sentiment, creating downward pressure on safe-haven assets like Silver. Early exit poll results from Wisconsin indicate a lead for Republican candidate Donald Trump, with 56% of the vote compared to 42.5%, based on 7.5% of expected votes counted. In North Carolina, exit polls show a tight race between Trump and Kamala Harris, with 50% of the votes counted. In Michigan, with 12% of votes counted, Harris' lead has shrunk from 61% to 53%. Moreover, initial results show Harris leading Trump 61% to 38%, with 46% of the votes tallied in Nebraska's District 2. Meanwhile, early exit polls from Georgia, one of the first states to report, show a slight edge for Trump. With 16 electoral votes up for grabs, preliminary data suggests Trump holds a 10% lead over Harris, although this is based on less than 1% of votes counted, according to The Washington Post. Additionally, non-yielding assets like Silver are facing headwinds as US Treasury yields rise, with the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bond yields at 4.23% and 4.34%, respectively, at the time of writing. Market attention is focused on the balance of power in Congress, as a sweep by either party could bring substantial changes to spending and tax policies, influencing broader market dynamics. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

05:42 AUD/JPY struggles to find acceptance above 101.00, surrenders intraday gains to one-week top
The AUD/JPY cross attracts follow-through buying for the second successive day on Wednesday and climbs to over a one-week high during the Asian session.

05:29 USD/INR rises as Trump trades continue to strengthen, Indian Rupee hits record low
The Indian Rupee (INR) attracts some sellers to an all-time low on Wednesday, pressured by a rise in the US Dollar (USD) and weakness in Asian peers after the polls showed Republican candidate Donald Trump ahead of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the US presidential election.

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However, the downside risk for the INR might be limited by the routine actions taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to sell the USD to prevent significant depreciation in the Indian Rupee. Investors will closely monitor the outcome of the US election ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, Trump trades continue to rally as his odds improve. Analysts expect that the victory of Donald Trump could push the USD higher. Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee seems vulnerable amid US election updates "Dollar is doing well, U.S. yields are on the rise and U.S. equity futures are up. Traders are getting into Trump trades based on what the U.S. election results are so far," noted a Singapore-based hedge fund portfolio manager. According to the IMF, India is now estimated to overtake Japan as the world's fourth-biggest economy by FY2025. The IMF forecasts that India's GDP will rise to $4,340 billion next fiscal year. The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 56.0 in October from 54.9 in September and beating the estimation of 53.8. The US S&P Global Services PMI came in at 55.0 in October, down from the previous reading and the consensus of 55.3. Financial markets are now pricing in nearly a 94% possibility of a quarter point reduction and a near 80% odds of a similar-sized move in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Technical Analysis: USD/INR remains bullish in the longer term The Indian Rupee weakens on the day. Technically, the strong bullish outlook of the USD/INR pair remains intact as the pair holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above the midline near 67.30, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the upside.

The key upside barrier for USD/INR emerges near the upper boundary of the ascending trend channel at84.25. Extended gains above the mentioned level could see a rally to 84.50, en route to the 85.00 psychological level.

In the bearish event, any follow-through selling below the lower limit of the trend channel near 84.05 could expose 83.79, the 100-day EMA. The next contention level is located at 83.46, the low of September 24. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

05:20 Gold price remains below $2,750 as USD and bond yields surge on Trump enthusiasm
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the $2,725-2,724 area, or a one-and-a-half week low and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses during the Asian session on Wednesday.

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Expectations for a spike in volatility lend support to the safe-haven XAU/USD.Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the $2,725-2,724 area, or a one-and-a-half week low and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses during the Asian session on Wednesday. A strong pickup in the US Dollar (USD) demand, bolstered by exit polls indicating a lead for the Republican nominee Donald Trump in key swing states – acts as a headwind for the commodity. Apart from this, a sharp intraday surge in the US Treasury bond yields and the risk-on impulse turn out to be another factor keeping a lid on the non-yielding Gold price. That said, expectations for a further spike in volatility in the wake of the US election results hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the safe-haven precious metal, which, in turn, should help limit any meaningful downfall. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls remain on the sidelines amid resurgent USD demand The US Dollar surged to a nearly four-month top in reaction to the US election exit polls, which suggest that the vote is moving in former President Donald Trump's direction. Georgia, a key swing state, was among the first of those with available exit polls, showing a Trump victory, and early exit poll results in Wisconsin also point to a Trump win. Preliminary results of the exit poll from Pennsylvania, one of the most closely watched swing states, appear in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris, according to CBC News. North Carolina exit polls show a close race while Nebraska District 2 initial results show Harris leading. CBC News called Indiana, Kentucky and West Virginia for Trump. Rising odds of Trump winning the election fuel speculation about the launch of potentially inflation-generating tariffs and push the US Treasury bond yields sharply higher. The US election results clear out a major point of uncertainty for markets, triggering a fresh wave of risk-on trade and further contributing to capping the safe-haven Gold price. The downside for the XAU/USD, however, is cushioned as traders remain cautious in the wake of the expected spike in volatility across the global financial markets. Iran's plans for a retaliatory strike against Israel’s attack on its territory on October 26 continue to fuel worries about the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Technical Outlook: Gold price traders await a breakout through a multi-day-old trading range From a technical perspective, the $2,725-2,720 area might continue to act as immediate strong support, below which the Gold price could accelerate the slide towards testing sub-$2,700 levels. The latter represents the lower boundary of a short-term ascending trend channel extending from late July. A convincing break below should pave the way for an extension of the recent corrective pullback from the all-time peak touched last week and drag the XAU/USD toward the next relevant support near the $2,675 zone en route to the $2,657-2,655 region. On the flip side, the $2,748-2,750 area now seems to have emerged as an immediate hurdle. The subsequent move up could lift the Gold price to the ascending trend-channel hurdle, currently pegged near the $2,780-2,785 region. This is closely followed by the $2,800 mark, which is likely to act as a key pivotal point. A sustained strength beyond will set the stage for the resumption of the prior well-established uptrend. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

05:10 GBP/USD depreciates as Trump trade rallies on exit polls favoring the Republican candidate
GBP/USD offers its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 1.2940 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

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The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains momentum on strengthening Trump trades as the voting favored Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election. Polling data indicate a close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with Trump currently holding an edge. On Kalshi, Trump shows a strong 57% to 43% lead over Harris, while on Polymarket, the gap is slightly wider, with Trump at 60.7% and Harris at 39.5%. These figures reflect growing support for Trump as election day approaches, but the race remains competitive. Early exit polls in Georgia, one of the first states with available data, indicate a tilt toward Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. With 16 electoral votes at stake, preliminary results suggest Trump has about a 10% lead over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, although this estimate is based on less than 1% of votes counted, according to The Washington Post. Preliminary results from the Pennsylvania exit polls show a lead for Harris, according to CBC News. With approximately 8% of the expected votes counted, Kamala has secured a 71% majority. The state has 19 electoral votes at stake.Follow our live coverage: Trump or Harris? Who will be the 47th President of the US and how will markets react?Traders are closely watching the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision set for Thursday, with a widespread expectation of a 25 basis point cut. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 96.4% probability of a quarter-point rate reduction at the Fed's November meeting, reflecting strong market anticipation of a modest cut. On the GBP front, the Bank of England's (BoE) upcoming rate decision, also scheduled for Thursday, is expected to result in another quarter-point reduction. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee is anticipated to vote 7-2 in favor of lowering the main reference rate to 4.75% from the current 5.0%. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

04:32 US Election 2024: Wisconsin exit polls show Trump ahead in the presidential race
The conviction of the Republican nominee Donald Trump becoming the 47th US president is growing stronger, according to the early exit polls, as polls closed in most states.

The conviction of the Republican nominee Donald Trump becoming the 47^th US president is growing stronger, according to the early exit polls, as polls closed in most states. The Trump trade optimism is back in play, bolstering the US Dollar (USD) and global stocks. However, nothing can be concluded as yet, as some states may take a couple of days to offer final results. Early exit polls results in Wisconsin point to a Trump win, as the former US president is leading with 56% of the votes to 42.5%, with 7.5% of the expected votes counted. North Carolina exit polls show a close race for Trump and Harris, with 50% of votes counted. However, Trump shows a minor lead. About 12% of votes counted in Michigan, votes in favor of Harris have retraced from 61% to 53% so far. Nebraska District 2 initial results show Harris leading with 61% to Trump’s 38%, as 46% of the votes get counted. Georgia, a key swing state, was among the first of those with available exit polls, showing a Trump victory. The state, which holds 16 electoral votes, shows Trump securing about 53% of the votes against the Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, according to CBC News, with 70% of the expected votes counted. Preliminary results in Pennsylvania, the most closely watched swing state, still appear in favor of Harris, according to CBC News. With about 22% of the expected votes counted, Kamala has secured 58% vs. Trump’s 41%. The state holds 19 electoral votes. CBC News called Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Oklahoma, North Dakota, South Dakota, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wyoming for Trump, while Harris will hold the reliably blue Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont and the District of Columbia. The current electoral vote tally is 154 for Trump and 30 for Harris.Follow our live coverage of the market reaction to the US presidential election as counting results start hitting the wires.Market reaction The US Dollar regains upside traction following the early exit polls from Wisconsin and Michigan. The US Dollar Index is currently trading at weekly highs near 104.60, up 1.17% on the day.

04:23 EUR/USD faces some selling pressure to near 1.0800 as Trump trades continue to rally
The EUR/USD pair falls to around 1.0805 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday.

04:10 US Dollar Index rises above 104.00 due to caution as US election race remains competitive
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against its six major peers, appreciates to near 104.20 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday.

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The US Dollar gains ground due to market caution ahead of the outcome of the US presidential election. Polling stations have now closed in over two dozen states, and early exit polls are starting to come in, increasing volatility in the financial markets. Early exit polls in Georgia, one of the first states with available data, indicate a tilt toward Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. With 16 electoral votes at stake, preliminary results suggest Trump has about a 10% lead over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, although this estimate is based on less than 1% of votes counted, according to The Washington Post. Preliminary results from the Pennsylvania exit polls show a lead for Harris, according to CBC News. With approximately 8% of the expected votes counted, Kamala has secured a 71% majority. The state has 19 electoral votes at stake.Follow our live coverage: Trump or Harris? Who will be the 47th President of the US and how will markets react?Improved US Treasury yields are bolstering the US Dollar, with the 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 4.23% and 4.34%, respectively, at the time of writing. Traders remain cautious due to the tight race in the US presidential election. The market is closely watching the control of Congress, as a sweep by either party could lead to significant shifts in spending and tax policies. On the monetary policy front, traders are focusing on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision scheduled for Thursday, with a broad consensus anticipating a 25 basis point cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 96.4% probability that the Fed will lower rates by a quarter percentage point at its November meeting, signaling strong market expectations for a modest cut. Regarding economic data, the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index rose to 56.0 in October, up from 54.9 in September, surpassing the forecast of 53.8. However, the S&P Global Services PMI registered at 55.0 in October, slightly below both the previous reading and the expected 55.3. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

04:08 USD/CAD surges to 1.3900 neighborhood as Trump trade boosts USD
The USD/CAD pair rallies over 80 pips from a two-week low, around the 1.3820-1.3815 region touched during the Asian session on Wednesday, reversing the previous day's losses and snapping a two-day losing streak.

03:42 WTI drops below $71.50 after the first US election results
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $71.35 on Wednesday.

03:38 Gold price bulls remain on the sidelines, around $2,740 after early US election results
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the $2,725-2,724 area, or a one-and-half-week low and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday.

03:33 US Election 2024: Pennsylvania early exit polls point to a Harris win
A tight 2024 United States presidential election is seen leaning in favor of Republican nominee Donald Trump.

03:29 Australian Dollar falls ahead of US election results, Georgia exit polls tilt toward Trump
The Australian Dollar (AUD) retraces its recent gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as market anticipation builds ahead of the US presidential election outcome.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar depreciates as traders adopt caution ahead of the results of the US presidential election.The Aussie Dollar could regain momentum as RBA Governor Michele Bullock reaffirmed a hawkish stance on Tuesday.Georgia exit polls indicate that Trump holds a 10% lead over Harris, estimated with less than 1% of votes counted.The Australian Dollar (AUD) retraces its recent gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as market anticipation builds ahead of the US presidential election outcome. Traders are also gearing up for the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy announcement on Thursday.The Aussie Dollar strengthened after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% on Tuesday, marking its eighth consecutive pause. RBA Governor Michele Bullock reiterated a hawkish stance, emphasizing the need for restrictive monetary policy given persistent inflation risks and a strong labor market. Additionally, Australia’s latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data indicated a positive shift in private sector activity in October. Growth in the services sector helped offset a continued decline in manufacturing. Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar depreciates amid market caution ahead of US election results Georgia, one of the early states with available exit polls, shows a tilt toward Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. With its 16 electoral votes, the initial data suggests Trump has roughly a 10% lead over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, although this estimate is based on less than 1% of the votes counted, as reported by The Washington Post. This early lead suggests momentum for Trump, but with only a small fraction of votes tallied, the final outcome in Georgia remains uncertain. Polling data indicates a close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with Trump currently holding an edge. On Kalshi, Trump shows a strong 57% to 43% lead over Harris, while on Polymarket, the gap is slightly wider, with Trump at 60.7% and Harris at 39.5%. These figures reflect growing support for Trump as election day approaches, but the race remains competitive. Attention will be focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday, with markets broadly anticipating a 25 basis point cut. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 96.4% probability that the Fed will lower rates by a quarter percentage point at its November meeting, reflecting strong market consensus for a modest cut this week. The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index increased to 56.0 in October, up from 54.9 in September, exceeding the forecast of 53.8. In contrast, the S&P Global Services PMI registered at 55.0 in October, slightly below both the prior reading and the expected 55.3. Australia's Judo Bank Services PMI improved to 51.0 in October from 50.6 in the previous reading, above the market consensus of 50.6. The Composite PMI climbed to 50.2 in October versus 49.8 prior. Caixin China Services PMI also rose to 52.0 in October from 50.3 in September. The TD-MI Inflation Gauge rose by 0.3% month-over-month in October, up from a 0.1% increase in the prior month, marking the highest reading since July and preceding the RBA's November policy meeting. Annually, the gauge climbed by 3.0%, compared to the previous 2.6% reading. ANZ Australia Job Advertisements increased by 0.3% month-over-month in October, a notable slowdown from the upwardly revised 2.3% gain in September. Despite the weaker growth, this marks the second consecutive month of increases. China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Australia’s Trade Minister Don Farrell on Sunday. China expressed hopes that Australia will continue enhancing its business environment and ensure fair and equitable treatment for Chinese companies. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar moves below 0.6600, nine-day EMA The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6590 on Wednesday, with technical indicators on the daily chart suggesting a potential continuation of the bearish trend. The pair has slipped below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling downward momentum. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 mark, further supporting a bearish outlook for the pair. For the AUD/USD pair, immediate support lies near the three-month low at 0.6536. A break below this level could lead the pair toward the critical psychological support at 0.6500. On the upside, the pair could face resistance at the nine-day EMA at 0.6603, with additional resistance at the 14-day EMA at 0.6620. A breakout above these levels could signal strengthening momentum, potentially targeting the key psychological level of 0.6700. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.79% 0.49% 0.96% 0.36% 0.75% 0.45% 0.67% EUR -0.79% -0.30% 0.15% -0.42% -0.05% -0.34% -0.12% GBP -0.49% 0.30% 0.44% -0.13% 0.25% -0.07% 0.19% JPY -0.96% -0.15% -0.44% -0.58% -0.20% -0.50% -0.27% CAD -0.36% 0.42% 0.13% 0.58% 0.38% 0.09% 0.31% AUD -0.75% 0.05% -0.25% 0.20% -0.38% -0.30% -0.06% NZD -0.45% 0.34% 0.07% 0.50% -0.09% 0.30% 0.22% CHF -0.67% 0.12% -0.19% 0.27% -0.31% 0.06% -0.22% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

03:09 Japanese Yen slumps to 153.00 against USD after initial US election results
The Japanese Yen (JPY) touches a two-week high against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Wednesday after Bank of Japan (BoJ) minutes showed that the central bank will continue to hike interest rates if economic and price forecasts meet.

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The BoJ rate-hike uncertainty and the risk-on impulse weigh heavily on the JPY.The US election results trigger a sharp USD rally and push the USD/JPY pair higher.The Japanese Yen (JPY) touches a two-week high against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Wednesday after Bank of Japan (BoJ) minutes showed that the central bank will continue to hike interest rates if economic and price forecasts meet. Investors, however, seem convinced that Japan's political landscape could make it difficult for the BoJ to tighten its monetary policy further. Apart from this, a generally positive risk tone undermines the safe-haven JPY. This, along with the emergence of strong US Dollar (USD) buying, bolstered by initial exit polls showing that the scale leans toward former President Donald Trump, triggers a goodish intraday recovery of nearly 150 pips for the USD/JPY pair. As polls continue to hit the wires, markets are expected to react sharply one way or the other. This, in turn, warrants some caution for aggressive traders and before positioning for a firm near-term direction for the currency pair. Daily Digest Market Movers: Japanese Yen is pressured by resurgent USD demand The minutes of the September Bank of Japan policy meeting showed that the central bank plans gradual policy rate increases, though it remains cautious about overseas economic uncertainties, especially from the US. This comes on top of BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's hawkish remarks last week and keeps the door open for additional rate hikes, which, in turn, provides a modest lift to the Japanese Yen during the Asian session. The initial market reaction, however, turns out to be short-lived and fades rather quickly amid doubts over the BoJ's ability to tighten its monetary policy further in the wake of the political uncertainty in Japan. The US Dollar rallies across the board after exit polls indicate an early lead in Georgia (swing state) for the Republican nominee Donald Trump, triggering a sharp surge of nearly 150 pips for the USD/JPY pair. Rising odds of Trump winning the election fuel speculations about the launch of potentially inflation-generating tariffs, which, along with deficit-spending concerns, push the US Treasury bond yields sharply higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond spikes to its highest level since July, contributing to the strong bid tone surrounding the USD and driving flows away from the lower-yielding JPY. Technical Outlook: USD/JPY could aim to challenge the multi-month top, around 153.85-153.90 area From a technical perspective, sustained strength beyond the 153.00 round figure could lift the USD/JPY pair to the 153.35-153.40 supply zone en route to the 153.85-153.90 region, or a three-month peak touched last week. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. Given that oscillators on the daily chart are holding in the positive territory, spot prices might then climb to the next relevant hurdle near the 154.60-154.70 area before aiming to reclaim the 155.00 psychological mark. On the flip side, the 152.30 area now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 152.00 mark and the Asian session low, around the 151.30-151.25 region. This is followed by the 151.00 round figure, below which the USD/JPY pair could slide towards the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance breakpoint, now turned support, around the 150.25 region. Some follow-through selling, leading to a break below the 150.00 psychological mark, will shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders and pave the way for deeper losses. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

02:49 NZD/USD attracts some sellers below 0.6000 as Trump trades climb
The NZD/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 0.5970 on Wednesday during the early Asian session.

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Georgia is among the first states with available exit polls, indicating a favorable outcome for Trump. According to the Washington Post, Trump won around 10% more votes than Harris in the state, which has 16 electoral votes. Trump trades continue to rally as his odds improve. Analysts expect that the victory of Donald Trump could push the USD higher. Trump’s proposals to hike tariffs against major US trading partners would result in a stronger Greenback.

On the Kiwi front, data released by Statistics New Zealand on Wednesday showed that the country’s Unemployment Rate in the third quarter (Q3) climbed to 4.8% from 4.6% in the second quarter. The figure was below the market consensus of 5.0% in the reported period.

New Zealand’s economy contracted in the second quarter and is estimated to have shrunk further in the third quarter, triggering the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to continue cutting interest rates to revive growth. The New Zealand central bank decided to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 75 basis points (bps) since it began an easing cycle in August. The markets expect another 50 bps cut at the final policy decision of the year on November 27, which would take the OCR to 4.25%. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

02:30 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI came in at 49.7, above forecasts (49.3) in October
Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI came in at 49.7, above forecasts (49.3) in October

02:14 Breaking: US Election 2024: Exit polls show a slim Trump's advantage
A historical United States presidential election is about to come to an end.

A historical United States presidential election is about to come to an end. Polling locations have begun closing, and initial exit polls will start hitting the wires, and triggering sharp reactions across financial boards one way or the other. It is worth remembering, however, nothing will be set and done, as some states may take a couple of days to offer final results. Whether former President Donald Trump or current Vice-President Kamala Harris will become the next US President will likely depend on what happens in the seven swing states. Georgia is among the first of those with available exit polls, showing that the scale leans toward Trump's side. The state, which holds 16 electoral votes, shows Trump received roughly 10% more votes than Harris, with less than 1% votes counted, according to the Washington Post. The advantage seems slimmer according to other researchers, but Trump also leads.Follow our live coverage of the market reaction to the US presidential election as counting results start hitting the wires.Market reaction The US Dollar is up as an immediate reaction to the news. The US Dollar Index changed course and currently hovers around 103.60 after bottoming at 103.34 on Tuesday.

02:12 BoC Meeting minutes: Central bank feels upside pressure on inflation will continue to decline
According to the Bank of Canada's (BoC) minutes from the October 2024 meeting that was released Wednesday, the governing council felt upside pressures on inflation will continue to decline, so the monetary policy did not need to be as restrictive.

02:03 BoJ Minutes: Central bank will continue rate hikes if economic and price forecasts meet
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members shared their views on the monetary policy outlook on Wednesday, per the BoJ Minutes of the September meeting.

01:16 USD/CAD softens below 1.3850 as traders brace for US election results
The USD/CAD pair weakens to near 1.3825 during the early Asian session on Wednesday.

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Polls show a tight race between Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Election polls showed that Donald Trump has a lead over his opponent. Kalshi shows an overwhelming 57% to 43% Trump's advantage over Harris, while Polymarket puts the figures at 60.7% and 39.5%, respectively.

“Watching the dollar is going to be critical tonight. That will be the most liquid and the most transparent messaging to what we are getting markets to do because that’s where people can put money to work fast,” noted David Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist.

Elsewhere, data released on Tuesday showed that the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 56.0 in October from 54.9 in September, beating the estimation of 53.8. Meanwhile, S&P Global Services PMI came in at 55.0 in October, down from the previous reading and the consensus of 55.3.

The attention will shift to the Fed interest rate decision on Thursday, which is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point at the November meeting. Financial markets are now pricing in nearly a 94% possibility of a quarter point reduction and a near 80% odds of a similar-sized move in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

On the Loonie front, the rise in crude oil prices might underpin the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) in the near term. Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States (US), and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

01:02 EUR/USD rallies on Greenback weakness heading into US presidential election
EUR/USD benefited from a broad-market decline in the US Dollar as global markets brace for early polling outcomes from the US presidential election that kicked off on Tuesday.

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Fiber jumped two-thirds of one percent to claw back above the 1.0900 handle as investors hope for a market-positive outcome as the US election cycle gets set to pick the next US President for the next four years. Outside of an appearance from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, EU-based market data remains relatively limited this week. Pan-EU Retail Sales figures are due on Thursday, with this week’s EU leaders’ summit set to wrap up on Friday and a follow-up appearance from ECB President Lagarde slated for Saturday when the market will be closed. US election odds have both candidates neck-and-neck in a dead-heat race for the Presidency, with former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris polling within 5% of each other, depending on which poll results you reference. Equity investors, tech sector addicts specifically, appear to broadly believe former President Trump to be the preferred stock-friendly candidate, an odd choice considering the Republican candidate has strongly voiced support of a return to the Smoot-Hawley tariff era of US history. Trump has regularly suggested stiff tariffs across the board on all imported goods into the US, an incredibly inflationary economic policy proposal. Another Federal Reserve (Fed) rate call looms ahead this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is widely expected to deliver another quarter-point cut to interest rates on Thursday, bringing the Fed Funds Rate down 25 bps to 4.75%. The Fed Funds Rate peaked at 5.5% in July of 2023, and investors have been clamoring for a return to a low interest rate environment that has become familiar territory since US interest rates clattered to an all-time low near 0% in early 2009. The University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index is waiting in the wings and slated for release on Friday. Investors expect November’s UoM sentiment indicator to climb to a six-month high of 71.0 from the previous month’s 70.5. EUR/USD price forecast The EUR/USD pair is currently staging a rebound above the 1.0900 level after a period of decline, with recent bullish momentum challenging the 50-day EMA, situated at 1.0937. This level aligns closely with the pair’s current trading range, indicating that the area between 1.0900 and 1.0937 could act as a near-term resistance zone. The 200-day EMA, positioned at 1.0902, provided initial support, allowing the pair to bounce back from the lows seen earlier in October, signaling a potential shift in sentiment toward the upside. The MACD indicator on the daily chart shows signs of recovery as well, with the MACD line inching closer to the signal line and the histogram flipping into positive territory. This transition suggests a potential build-up in bullish momentum, although the crossover has yet to materialize decisively. A clear MACD crossover, if achieved, could support further gains in the short term. For now, traders should be cautious as the pair remains at a crucial juncture where rejection from the 50-day EMA could lead to another downside test. In the immediate term, sustained buying pressure could propel EUR/USD toward the 1.1000 psychological resistance, with further gains likely if buyers manage to clear the 50-day EMA. On the downside, any loss of the 1.0900 level could see the pair revisiting 1.0850 and, potentially, the October lows near 1.0700. Overall, while the pair’s technicals indicate a cautiously bullish outlook, EUR/USD remains vulnerable to reversal if it fails to break above the moving averages decisively. EUR/USD daily chartEuro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

00:49 New Zealand Unemployment Rate rises to 4.8% in Q3 versus 5.0% expected
The New Zealand Unemployment Rate in the third quarter (Q3) climbed to 4.8% from 4.6% in the second quarter, according to data published by Statistics New Zealand on Wednesday.

00:49 GBP/USD pushes back above 1.30 as the US heads into election territory
GBP/USD found the gas pedal on Tuesday, ramping up another two-thirds of a percent and clawing back above the 1.3000 handle as markets brace for what is likely to be a messy outcome from the US presidential election.

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Widely-anticipated rate cuts are also due from both the Bank of England (BoE) and Federal Reserve (Fed) this week, giving investors plenty to chew on in what is set to be one of the busiest weeks of the rest of the trading year. US election odds have both candidates neck-and-neck in a dead-heat race for the Presidency, with former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris polling within 5% of each other, depending on which poll results you reference. Equity investors, tech sector addicts specifically, appear to broadly believe former President Trump to be the preferred stock-friendly candidate, an odd choice considering the Republican candidate has strongly voiced support of a return to the Smoot-Hawley tariff era of US history. Trump has regularly suggested stiff tariffs across the board on all imported goods into the US, an incredibly inflationary economic policy proposal. The BoE’s latest rate call, slated for Thursday, is expected to deliver another quarter-point cut to investors. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to vote seven-to-two to reduce the BoE’s main reference rate to 4.75% from the current 5.0%. Another Fed rate call looms ahead this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is widely expected to deliver another quarter-point cut to interest rates on Thursday, bringing the Fed Funds Rate down 25 bps to 4.75%. The Fed Funds Rate peaked at 5.5% in July of 2023, and investors have been clamoring for a return to a low interest rate environment that has become familiar territory since US interest rates clattered to an all-time low near 0% in early 2009. The University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index is waiting in the wings and slated for release on Friday. Investors expect November’s UoM sentiment indicator to climb to a six-month high of 71.0 from the previous month’s 70.5. GBP/USD price forecast The GBP/USD pair is currently trading just above the 1.3000 psychological level, showcasing a promising bullish rebound after a recent dip towards the 1.2850 support area. This recovery is marked by a decisive bounce off the 200-day EMA (1.2858), which acted as a strong support level, indicating buyers are stepping in to defend this area. The 50-day EMA, positioned slightly above at 1.3045, is now in focus as the pair edges higher, presenting a potential resistance zone. If GBP/USD can sustain its current momentum and clear the 50-day EMA, it could pave the way for further gains in the near term. The MACD indicator at the bottom of the chart reflects a bullish crossover with the MACD line crossing above the signal line. This crossover is typically seen as a signal of upward momentum, suggesting that the bullish sentiment may continue in the short term. Moreover, the histogram has shifted to the positive side, indicating that bullish momentum is gaining traction. However, traders should watch for any significant resistance near the 1.3050 area, as this level aligns with the 50-day EMA and could act as a short-term barrier. Looking ahead, a sustained move above the 50-day EMA may open the door for GBP/USD to test the next resistance around 1.3150. Conversely, if the pair fails to hold above 1.3000, it may retest the 200-day EMA support around 1.2850. A break below this level could lead to further downside pressure, potentially targeting the 1.2700 level. Overall, GBP/USD’s technical outlook leans cautiously bullish in the near term, but it remains susceptible to volatility and possible reversals, especially around key moving averages. GBP/USD daily chartPound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

00:30 US Election 2024: Exit polls awaited as voting about to end
American voters have little time left to cast their votes as polls will start closing at 19:00 EST or 00:00 GMT.

Chronologiczny zapis wiadomości forex

12:05 USD/CNH: Can breach 7.1800 near term – UOB Group Impulsive advance in early Asian trade could extend to 7.1550 before levelling off.

12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (-3.5%) in September: Actual (-3.4%) Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (-3.5%) in September: Actual (-3.4%)

12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (-0.6%) in September Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (-0.6%) in September

11:57 USD/JPY surges to near 154.40 as US Trump claims victory over Democrats The USD/JPY pair refreshes a four-month high near 154.40 in European trading hours on Wednesday.

11:38 EM: Key battle grounds – ING USD/CNH is up around 1% as markets price in renewed trade wars, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

11:31 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI below forecasts (56) in October: Actual (54.3) United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI below forecasts (56) in October: Actual (54.3)

11:29 NZD/USD: Chance of breaking below 0.5940 – UOB Group The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could break below 0.5940; a sustained decline below this level is unlikely.

11:25 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades below $32.50, nine-day EMA Silver price (XAG/USD) depreciates to near $32.20 during the European session on Wednesday.

11:18 EUR/USD plummets as Trump announces victory in US presidential election EUR/USD slightly recovers to 1.0750 after nosediving to near 1.0700 in Wednesday’s European session, the lowest level in over four months.

11:12 JPY: House vote to be key – ING USD/JPY is just over 1% higher today as it reacts to the rise in US yields, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

11:06 AUD/USD: A break of the major support at 0.6535 is unlikely – UOB Group The Australian Dollar (AUD) could further but a break of the major support at 0.6535 is unlikely.

11:00 AUD/USD rebounds from multi-month low, finds support ahead of 0.6500 mark The AUD/USD pair trims a part of heavy intraday losses and recovers around 70-75 pips from the vicinity of the 0.6500 psychological mark, or its lowest level since August 8 touched earlier this Wednesday.

11:00 EUR: Europe braces itself for Trump 2.0 – ING European politicians will be waking up to face their fears this Wednesday morning.

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI came in at 50, above forecasts (49.7) in October Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI came in at 50, above forecasts (49.7) in October

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Services PMI above expectations (51.2) in October: Actual (51.6) Eurozone HCOB Services PMI above expectations (51.2) in October: Actual (51.6)

10:55 Germany HCOB Services PMI registered at 51.6 above expectations (51.4) in October Germany HCOB Services PMI registered at 51.6 above expectations (51.4) in October

10:55 Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.6, above expectations (48.4) in October Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.6, above expectations (48.4) in October

10:50 France HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.1, above forecasts (47.3) in October France HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.1, above forecasts (47.3) in October

10:50 France HCOB Services PMI above expectations (48.3) in October: Actual (49.2) France HCOB Services PMI above expectations (48.3) in October: Actual (49.2)

10:45 GBP/USD: Can break below 1.2900 – UOB Group The Pound Sterling (GBP) could trade in a choppy and broad range of 1.2900/1.3040.

10:45 Italy HCOB Services PMI above expectations (50.7) in October: Actual (52.4) Italy HCOB Services PMI above expectations (50.7) in October: Actual (52.4)

10:44 USD: Trump trades boost the US Dollar – ING The reaction to the US election so far in the FX market has been, as expected, a strong dollar across the board.

10:27 Not only Harris lost, the euro lost as well – Commerzbank Not only did the US dollar make significant gains last night.

10:18 GBP/JPY rises above 198.00 as traders expect BoE to deliver a nominal rate cut in November GBP/JPY extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 198.30 during the European hours on Wednesday.

10:16 China: Looking beyond the NPC meetings – Standard Chartered With 2024 growth risk ebbing, we think the policy focus has shifted to 2025.

10:15 Spain HCOB Services PMI below expectations (56.6) in October: Actual (54.9) Spain HCOB Services PMI below expectations (56.6) in October: Actual (54.9)

10:01 Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM) rose from previous -0.7% to 0.7% in October Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM) rose from previous -0.7% to 0.7% in October

10:00 Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY) climbed from previous -3.1% to -1.3% in October Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY) climbed from previous -3.1% to -1.3% in October

09:48 Breaking: Trump inches closer to presidency after winning decisive Pennsylvania swing state Former US president Donald Trump is about to officially win the 2024 US presidential election.

09:41 Trump speech: Thank the American people for honor of being elected Donald Trump delivers a speech at the Palm Beach Convention Center after he is widely projected to win the presidency.

09:41 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Falls toward descending channel's lower boundary near 0.5900 The NZD/USD pair loses ground to near 0.5930 during Wednesday's early European session.

09:35 Pound Sterling plunges as Trump trades intensify The Pound Sterling (GBP) plummets to near 1.2850 against the US Dollar (USD) in early London trading hours on Wednesday.

09:12 German Factory Orders jump 4.2% MoM in September vs. 1.5% expected Germany’s Factory Orders rebounded in September, according to the official data published by the Federal Statistics Office on Monday, suggesting that the German manufacturing sector recovery is back on track.

09:01 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) increased to 1% in September from previous -3.9% Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) increased to 1% in September from previous -3.9%

09:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) above expectations (1.5%) in September: Actual (4.2%) Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) above expectations (1.5%) in September: Actual (4.2%)

08:49 USD/CAD Price Forecast: The pair keeps bullish vibe above 1.3900 The USD/CAD pair gathers strength to near 1.3930 during the early European session on Wednesday.

08:42 FX option expiries for Nov 6 NY cut FX option expiries for Nov 6 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

08:00 Russia S&P Global Services PMI up to 51.6 in October from previous 50.5 Russia S&P Global Services PMI up to 51.6 in October from previous 50.5

07:38 EUR/JPY remains subdued around 165.50 following BoJ Meeting Minutes, awaits Eurozone PMI EUR/JPY maintains its position near 165.50 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gained support from hawkish minutes of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) most recent meeting.

07:35 EUR/GBP extends downside below 0.8350, investors await the BoE rate decision The EUR/GBP cross extends its decline to around 0.8345 during the early European session on Wednesday.

07:16 USD/CHF retreats from multi-month top, still well bid above 0.8700 amid bullish USD The USD/CHF pair catches aggressive bids on Wednesday and spikes to its highest level since early August, around the 0.8755 region during the Asian session.

07:00 India HSBC Services PMI came in at 58.5, above forecasts (58.3) in October India HSBC Services PMI came in at 58.5, above forecasts (58.3) in October

07:00 India HSBC Composite PMI: 59.1 (October) vs 58.6 India HSBC Composite PMI: 59.1 (October) vs 58.6

06:44 NZD/USD loses ground more than 1% due to Trump trade rally NZD/USD depreciates by more than 1% as the US Dollar (USD) rises due to a Trump trade rally sparked by the favorable results for the Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election.

06:37 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:30 EUR/USD recovers few pips from multi-month low, still deep in the red around mid-1.0700s The EUR/USD pair comes under intense selling pressure on Wednesday and dives to its lowest level since early July, around the 1.0720-1.0715 region during the Asian session.

06:03 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls due to Trump trade optimism Silver price depreciates as safe-haven metals face challenges over Trump trade rally.

05:42 AUD/JPY struggles to find acceptance above 101.00, surrenders intraday gains to one-week top The AUD/JPY cross attracts follow-through buying for the second successive day on Wednesday and climbs to over a one-week high during the Asian session.

05:10 GBP/USD depreciates as Trump trade rallies on exit polls favoring the Republican candidate GBP/USD offers its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 1.2940 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

04:32 US Election 2024: Wisconsin exit polls show Trump ahead in the presidential race The conviction of the Republican nominee Donald Trump becoming the 47th US president is growing stronger, according to the early exit polls, as polls closed in most states.

04:23 EUR/USD faces some selling pressure to near 1.0800 as Trump trades continue to rally The EUR/USD pair falls to around 1.0805 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday.

04:10 US Dollar Index rises above 104.00 due to caution as US election race remains competitive The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against its six major peers, appreciates to near 104.20 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday.

04:08 USD/CAD surges to 1.3900 neighborhood as Trump trade boosts USD The USD/CAD pair rallies over 80 pips from a two-week low, around the 1.3820-1.3815 region touched during the Asian session on Wednesday, reversing the previous day's losses and snapping a two-day losing streak.

03:42 WTI drops below $71.50 after the first US election results West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $71.35 on Wednesday.

03:38 Gold price bulls remain on the sidelines, around $2,740 after early US election results Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the $2,725-2,724 area, or a one-and-half-week low and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday.

03:33 US Election 2024: Pennsylvania early exit polls point to a Harris win A tight 2024 United States presidential election is seen leaning in favor of Republican nominee Donald Trump.

03:29 Australian Dollar falls ahead of US election results, Georgia exit polls tilt toward Trump The Australian Dollar (AUD) retraces its recent gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as market anticipation builds ahead of the US presidential election outcome.

02:49 NZD/USD attracts some sellers below 0.6000 as Trump trades climb The NZD/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 0.5970 on Wednesday during the early Asian session.

02:30 Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI came in at 49.7, above forecasts (49.3) in October Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI came in at 49.7, above forecasts (49.3) in October

02:14 Breaking: US Election 2024: Exit polls show a slim Trump's advantage A historical United States presidential election is about to come to an end.

02:03 BoJ Minutes: Central bank will continue rate hikes if economic and price forecasts meet The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members shared their views on the monetary policy outlook on Wednesday, per the BoJ Minutes of the September meeting.

01:16 USD/CAD softens below 1.3850 as traders brace for US election results The USD/CAD pair weakens to near 1.3825 during the early Asian session on Wednesday.

01:02 EUR/USD rallies on Greenback weakness heading into US presidential election EUR/USD benefited from a broad-market decline in the US Dollar as global markets brace for early polling outcomes from the US presidential election that kicked off on Tuesday.

00:49 New Zealand Unemployment Rate rises to 4.8% in Q3 versus 5.0% expected The New Zealand Unemployment Rate in the third quarter (Q3) climbed to 4.8% from 4.6% in the second quarter, according to data published by Statistics New Zealand on Wednesday.

00:49 GBP/USD pushes back above 1.30 as the US heads into election territory GBP/USD found the gas pedal on Tuesday, ramping up another two-thirds of a percent and clawing back above the 1.3000 handle as markets brace for what is likely to be a messy outcome from the US presidential election.

00:30 US Election 2024: Exit polls awaited as voting about to end American voters have little time left to cast their votes as polls will start closing at 19:00 EST or 00:00 GMT.

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